Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs): A Proposed Next-Generation Hazardous Watch/Warning Paradigm Lans P. Rothfusz Acting Deputy Director NSSL

 A proposed modernization of the NWS’s teletype- era, deterministic, product-centric, WWA paradigm.  A product of NOAA’s Weather Ready Nation and a means of achieving WRN goals.  An organizing framework for R2O. FACETs is… 2

Informing a Paradigm Shift Future Warning Paradigm Good things we do now. Challenges we have now. Trajectories of science, tools and society. First, do no harm! Refine, revise and/or reinvent. Where we’re headed. 3

NOAA Science/Tech Trajectories 30-minute Probability of Rotation  Warn on Forecast (WoF)  Probabilistic output from storm-scale ensembles… then what?!  MYRORSS  Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely-Sensed Storms.  Real-time, storm-scale MOS.  15-year radar/RUC reanalysis.  Climatology of storm-scale behaviors.  Longevity, phenomena, severity, etc.  FACETs is the “delivery mechanism” for WoF- generated probabilistic output. 4

FACETs Changes the Starting Point The Method & Manner of W/W/A Observations & Guidance The Forecaster Threat Grid Tools Useable Output Effective Response Verification Methods 5

Facet #1: Changing the Starting Point Move from “binary” polygons to Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI)Move from “binary” polygons to Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) –Grid-based threat probabilities. Legacy warnings “fall out.”Legacy warnings “fall out.” New messages possible.New messages possible. –Not only for tornadoes. Winter weather, hail, lightning, flooding, aviation, etc.Winter weather, hail, lightning, flooding, aviation, etc. 30-Minute Threat: Tornado Probability Valid 11:00 a.m. - 11:30 a.m. MDT Last updated: 1 minute ago “Byproduct” Tornado Warning Proximity (Yellow) Alert?? 6

Facet #2: Obs & Guidance What forecasters use to make decisions.What forecasters use to make decisions. –Radar, satellites, models, observations, other forecasters, etc. Observations & Guidance 2 Grid-Based Probabilistic Threat Forecasts 1 7

Facet #3: The Forecaster The person making the watch/warning decisions.The person making the watch/warning decisions. –Knowledge, skills and abilities. –The human brain (wetware). Observations & Guidance 2 The Forecaster 3 Grid-Based Probabilistic Threat Forecasts 1 8

Facet #4: Threat Grid Tools What forecasters use to create the hazard information.What forecasters use to create the hazard information. –Hardware & software. –Hazard Services from OAR/GSD. Observations & Guidance 2 The Forecaster 3 Threat Grid Tools 4 Grid-Based Probabilistic Threat Forecasts 1 9

Facet #4: Threat Grid Tools 10

FACETs is… Multimedia, multi- point enabling.Multimedia, multi- point enabling. 11

Facet #5: Useful Output What the end user sees and hears.What the end user sees and hears. –Graphical, textual, auditory, digital, etc. Observations & Guidance 2 The Forecaster 3 Threat Grid Tools 4 Useful Output 5 Grid-Based Probabilistic Threat Forecasts 1 12

Facet #5: Useful Output Watches & warnings, yes.Watches & warnings, yes. –Smaller, phenomenon- specific areas. –User-specifiable thresholds. –Longer (non-warning) lead time. –New opportunities for private sector. Impact-focused, with new information.Impact-focused, with new information. –Urgency, confidence, range of possibilities, etc. 30-Minute Threat: Tornado Probability Valid 11:00 a.m. - 11:30 a.m. MDT Last updated: 1 minute ago 13

Facet #6: Effective Response What the end user does.What the end user does. –The science/human interface. –The most important facet. –Where social/behavioral sciences pay off. Observations & Guidance 2 The Forecaster 3 Threat Grid Tools 4 Useful Output 5 Effective Response 6 Grid-Based Probabilistic Threat Forecasts 1 14

Facet #7: Verification Evaluating system effectiveness.Evaluating system effectiveness. –Measuring more than just forecast skill… –…measure the response, too! Observations & Guidance 2 The Forecaster 3 Threat Grid Tools 4 Useful Output 5 Effective Response 6 Verification Methods 7 Grid-Based Probabilistic Threat Forecasts 1 15

 A science-driven paradigm delivering a continuous stream of high-res, probabilistic hazard information extending from days to within minutes of event.  Optimized for user-specific decision-making through comprehensive integration of social/behavioral sciences. FACETs is… Integrated Social/Behavioral/Economic Sciences Adapted from Lazrus (NCAR) 16

 Science and Strategic Implementation Plan (SSIP) for FACETs has been created.  SSIP Development Team (16 Members)  NWS field offices (SPC, 2 WFOs)  NWS HQ, WRH, WDTB, MDL and ROC  OAR (NSSL and GSD)  NWSEO  Social Scientist  State Emergency Management  Weather Industry (2) SSIP = The FACETs “Master Plan” 17

 June 2014 Workshop  What will it take to get from present system to FACETs?  Result: 46 distinct projects identified.  16 physical science  14 software development  23 social/behavioral/economic science  3 training and outreach  (4 WRN Projects)  This will be a “heavy lift!” SSIP = The FACETs Master Plan 18

 How is the modeling community preparing for a new paradigm of storm-scale, rapidly- updating, ensemble-driven probabilistic guidance for forecasters?  What will operational life look like from the perspective of the watch (SPC) and warning (WFO) forecasters in 10 years?  Will we be ready for a Warn on Forecast era? Questions for the Audience… 19

Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) Grid-Based Probabilistic Threats Observations & Guidance The Forecaster Threat Grid Tools Useful Output Effective Response Verification Methods Integrated Social Sciences Lans P. Rothfusz