Overview of crime trends in SA NPA CONFERENCE 2007 JOHAN BURGER Crime and Justice Programme

Outline Overview of official crime statistics: 2004/ /6 (up to March 2006) What do we know about crime in 2006/7?

Overview of official crime statistics

General trends over past 12 years Total number of crimes  7% Total crime, and most serious crimes, peaked around 2002/3 After 2002/3, encouraging decreases were recorded (  6% per year) Several types of serious crime  since 2002/3: murder, burglary, robbery overall Serious crimes that increased recently: vehicle theft, hijacking, CIT robberies

Total 21 crimes recorded by SAPS 1994/ /06

How accurate are the police statistics? Reporting of crime to police, 2003 ISS national victim survey

Murder rate 1994/ /06

Housebreaking rate 1994/ /06

Aggravated robbery rate 1994/ /06

Bank robbery & cash in transit heists 1996/ /06

Car hijacking rate 1996/ /06

Car theft rate 1994/ /06

Rape rate 1994/ /06

What do we know about crime in 2006/7? Various sources indicate increases in certain crimes in certain places

Short-term insurance industry reports Mutual & Federal: –Reversal of downward trend in hijacking in Apr-June 2006 quarter (4% increase over 2005 quarter) –Stolen cars also resumed an upward trend in Apr-June quarter –Burglary claims increased by 15% in this quarter Hollard: –Spike in hijacking (20%) and burglary claims in Apr-June 2006 quarter

Increases in certain crimes in Gauteng (MEC for Community Safety, Feb 2007) Operation IRON FIST (July - Dec 2006) was launched to address the “spike in certain crimes”. Results: –Hijacking “stabilised” compared to 1st 6 months of 2006 –“Substantial reduction” in CIT heists. (SABRIC reports 27% reduction Sep-Dec 2006 compared to 2005) –Business robberies “continued to increase” but at a slower rate than 1st 6 months of 2006 –Residential robberies: “decreases were not recorded” –Residential burglaries: “substantial reduction” after slight increase in 1st 6 months of 2006

SABRIC figures Bank robbery: Down from 92 in 2005 to 83 in 2006 Overall decrease of 66% between 2000 and 2006

SABRIC figures (contd) CIT robbery: Up from 520 in 2005 to 545 in 2006 (An increase of 5%) In 2005 the increase was 17% In 2004 there was a decrease of 7%

SABRIC figures (contd) ATM attacks: Increased with 121% from 37 in 2000 to 82 in 2006 During Jan - March incidents already reported 61% of incidents involved the use of explosives

Consumer Goods Council figures CGC members reported armed robberies for the period: (A 27% increase over the 3 year period)

Consumer Goods Council (contd) Comparative figures for Jan - Feb 2006/2007: Armed robberies: Jan Jan (no change) Feb Feb (43% decrease)

Conclusion Good news: Overall crime levels are coming down, but are still extremely high (e.g. murder has decreased by 41% over 12 year period, but is still approx 8 times the international average)

Conclusion (contd) Aggravated robbery is down from 288 in 2003/04 to 255 in 2005/06 (but is still 55% up from 164 in 1996/97) Bank robbery decreased by 66% between (but focus seems to have moved to CIT, ATM & shopping centres)

Conclusion (contd) Bad news: CIT robberies increased by 74% betw 2004/ /06 (this trend continued in 2006 with a 5% increase since 2005) ATM attacks increased by 121% betw , and the 78 attacks for the first 3 months in 2007 already matches the total for 2006 (61% of these attacks explosives used)

Conclusion (contd) Armed robberies at shopping centres increased by 27% over the last three years Some crimes that showed decreases over the last number of years, seems to have leveled out and even slightly increased (e.g. hijackings, car theft)

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