Luc Vescovi 2C1F Montreal, Québec, Canada October 22, 2008 From modelling to adaptation and conservation strategies Historical & scientific background Description of the CC-BIO project Challenges of Climate Change to Biodiversity Conservation in North America

Luc Vescovi 2C1F Montreal, Québec, Canada October 22, 2008 From modelling to adaptation and conservation strategies Historical & scientific background Description of the CC-Bio project Challenges of Climate Change to Biodiversity Conservation in North America

1.To provide the most up to date information on the evolution of climate at regional scale Members 2. To increase our knowledge of the impacts of climate in different socio economic sectors 3. To work out strategies to reduce the effects of climate change Consortium on Regional climatology and Adaptation to Climate Change MISSIONS Affiliated

Energetic Resources (water, wind) Populations, Infrastructures and Northern ecosystems Maritime Environment Impacts «Society and Environment » Water Resources and Water Systems Forestry Resources Health Transportation, Infrastructures and public safety Agriculture Economy Tourism Ecosystems and Biodiversity Climate scenarios Historical and observed data Climate Simulations Hydroclimatic Analysis Impacts and Adaptation Ouranos Scientific Programs

CC and biodiversity what we know Parmesan and Yohe (2003), Thomas (2005), Walther et al. (2005), Parmesan (2006) have shown that shifts in phenology and distribution of plants and animals have occurred in the last mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days/decade - Latitude: 6 km per decade towards poles - Altitude: 6 m per decade

CC and biodiversity what we know XAT = mean annual temperature XJT = mean July temperature XST = mean summer temperature XWT = mean summer temperature XGT = mean growing season temperture TAP = total annual precipitation TSP = total summer precipitation TWP = total winter precipitation TGP = total growing season precipitation

Commission géologique du Canada, 2004

J.R. Malcom, in Green et al. (2003) Global climate change and biodiversity. The RSPB, UK CC and biodiversity what we know At 1 km/year, Picea (spruce) would require 1,000 years, rather than 100 years of migration to keep up with the shifting boreal biome.

Regional Quebec context Source Yagouti et al air temperature has increased over increasing trends are becoming smaller toward the east increase in the annual total rainfall although decreasing trends during the summer nb of days with snow and total snow amounts decreased

Regional Quebec context

Regional Climate Model CRCM version 4 Dynamical downscaling over a domain covering North America Horizontal resolution ~45km; Simulated period: 1961 – 2100 Extreme events better simulated (precipitation in particular) Increase in annual temperature and precipitation Different amount of change according to season Temperature Change Precipitation Change

Source: Environment Quebec (2005) Spatial repartition of biodiversity in Quebec

Regional Quebec context We know… -Past and future climate (good regional models) -Distribution of species (some taxonomic groups better than others) -Association between species distribution & climate & other variables -Which species are at risk and where they are -Where the protected areas are

Regional Quebec context We want to know… -Which species are at risk under climate change scenarios, which will gain from climate change (phenological changes and changes in distributions) -How to deal with protected areas in the long term

Effects of climate change on Quebec biodiversity: from climate and niche modelling to adaptation and conservation strategies 2C1F Montreal, Québec, Canada October 22, 2008 Ouranos expectation: from modelling to adaptation and conservation strategies Historical background Description of the CC-BIO project

Present vs future projection of habitat (vs different models) Thuiller (2003) Castanea sativa Pinus halepensis Betula nana Green = Stable habitat Blue = gain of new available habitat Red = loss of favorable habitats

Climate change on Quebec biodiversity: the CC-bio project Niche modeling and stakeholder involvement All species show a range of physiological tolerance to environmental conditions (ecological niche) that determines their location in geographical space

Originality of the project (1)The research framework, stakeholder involvement very early in the process (2)Close integration between climate models and climate envelope models (3)Use of regional climate models (4)Modeling changes in abundance (5)Using bayesian inference

Ouranos L. Vescovi T. Logan Mc Gill B. McGill M. Humphries UQAR D. Berteaux Parks Canada D. Welch S. McCanny P. Natel C. Samson S. De Blois U. De Montréal J.F. Anger Ducks Unlimited M. Darveau Nature Conservency J. Bonin The partners U. Grenoble W. Thuiller MDDEP G. Lavoie SCF (Env. Canada) F. Fournier MRNF N. Desrosiers ÉPOQ J. Larrivée AARQ D. Rodrigue

CC-Bio expected output Development of a conceptual framework to look at the effect of climate change on biodiversity and production of an atlas (e.g. Monarch-UK, US) Predict potential effects of climate change on biodiversity using high resolution climate change scenarios (MRCC outputs)

CC-Bio expected output Development of a conceptual framework to look at the effect of climate change on biodiversity and production of an atlas (e.g. Monarch-UK, US) Predict potential effects of climate change on biodiversity using high resolution climate change scenarios (MRCC outputs)

Acquiring data Museum/Herbarium data Distribution map Presence/absence CRCM selected grids Modeling Presence/absence Distribution map for T. undulatum Trillum undulatum

(Example of possible results) Current distribution

Gains and losses in distributionPotential future distribution T. undulatum

Gains and losses distributionPotential future distribution T. undulatum

Example of possible results : Random forest random and out of bag V. Bahn & B. McGill

Araujo & Rahbek 2006 Warning Care is needed to interpret these maps: they show the future potential climatic niche of species in absence of migration barriers, and therefore may not reflect the future distribution of species. There are other drivers and many indirect impacts of climate change like changes in agriculture, forestry, water resources, land use planning which will also affect future biodiversity.

CC-Bio expected output Ouranos expectations Support regional strategies of adaptation to climate change in the field of biodiversity conservation in Quebec and Canada Strengthening links between CC & biodiversity researchers and adaptation/conservation decision makers within a participatory approach context

Challenges of Climate Change to Biodiversity Conservation in North America 2C1F Montreal, Québec, Canada October 22, 2008 From modelling to adaptation and conservation strategies Historical & scientific background Description of the CC-Bio project

Adaptation to climate change: passive vs active management strategies ? A passive management strategy, whereby reserves are set aside and human influences minimized, will not work in a changing climate (see: Conservation Biology: Volume 22, Issue 3, ) More active management strategies will be needed: - active habitat restoration to increase ecosystem resilience - creation of migration barriers for Aquatic Invasive Species - establishment of migration corridors allowing species of conservation concern to respond to climate change - translocation of species to areas with now-suitable climate

Ouranos expectations From modelling to adaptation and conservation strategies How to integrate biodiversity and ecosystem methodologies in climate models, risk assessment tools, and impact analysis methods? What tools can biodiversity and conservation managers use to address multiple stressors (pollution, habitat loss, invasive species, over-harvesting) that interact with climate change? How to tailor the “ecosystem and landscape approach” and the concept of “ecological goods and services” as useful contributions to the adaptation tool kit to CC?

Towards a programme on biodiversity and natural ecosystemsGENES ECOSYSTEMS ECOSYSTEMS SPECIES SPECIES STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENTSTAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT Gov. Partners Governmental & Scientific Partners Gov., Sci. & Public TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS NORTHERN ECOSYSTEMS Know. Trans. Know. Trans MARITIME ECOSYSTEMS IMPACT & VULNERABILITY PREDICTION IMPACT & VULNERABILITY PREDICTION IMPACTS & VULNERABILITY EVALUATION IMPACTS & VULNERABILITY EVALUATION ADAPTATION STRATEGIES ADAPTATION STRATEGIES SCOPING SCOPING

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