DISARM – Defending Interglobal Societies from Asteroid Ruin Mutually Chelsea Dutenhoffer ASTE-527

12/17/20132 TODAY: Dec 17, 2013 Earth New NEO A new near-Earth object is discovered! Scenario

12/17/20133 Earth New NEO Problem 9 months from now: Sep 17, 2014

12/17/20134 M-Type asteroid Composition primarily Iron-Nickel Monolithic Diameter: 1 km Impact would result in 25% global human mortality Threat Classification 9-month warning: must intercept asteroid on its final orbit Fragment asteroid using subsurface nuclear explosive

12/17/20135 Background: Nuclear Fragmentation 1 Image from simulation described in paper by Wie & Dearborn, 2010

12/17/20136 June 9, 2014: 100 days before impact Earth New NEO

12/17/20137 Mass of fragments (Tons) Number of fragments Miss Distance (Earth Radii) Background: Debris Cloud Threat Only a small amount of debris impacts Earth 1 Image from model described in paper by Wie & Dearborn, 2010

12/17/20138 Proposal Creation of a global planetary defense agency Joint, multi-spacecraft program composed of multiple national agencies working together Seek to sufficiently fragment asteroid such that it poses no threat to civilization on Earth Remaining fragments are small enough that they can be handled via evacuations Nuclear DestroyersStrategic DeflectorsReconnaissance Craft

12/17/20139 Phase 1: Reconnaissance Phase 2: Fragmentation Phase 3: Debris cloud monitoring and strategic deflection

12/17/ Reconnaissance Spacecraft (1) Purpose: Characterize asteroid Monitor destruction/deflection attempts Real-time target acquisition and programming Provide debris cloud information to Earth Heritage: Deep Impact, NEAR, Dawn (NASA) Rosetta, Don Quixote (ESA) Hayabusa (JAXA)

12/17/ Reconnaissance Spacecraft (2) Multiple designs: CNES (France): spacecraft DLR (Germany): spacecraft CSA (Canada): spacecraft AEB (Brasil): spacecraft Planetary Resources, Deep Space Industries: spacecraft ASI (Italy): instrument payload VIR/VIRTIS spectrometer heritage

12/17/ Nuclear Destroyers (1) Purpose: Fragment asteroid ~1 MT subsurface nuclear explosive Position explosive to minimize debris near Earth Heritage: Nuclear weapons, missiles (USA, Russia)

12/17/ Nuclear Destroyers (2) Two different systems: Russian and U.S. Redundancy Partnership between national space and defense agencies Repurpose existing nuclear weapons Good on short timeframe Put weapons to good use Agreement already in place to share nuclear information

12/17/ Strategic Deflectors (1) Purpose: Deflect/destroy large fragments that pose a threat to Earth Receive targets from reconnaissance spacecraft, act autonomously May or may not be nuclear Heritage: Ballistic missiles and missile defense systems (US, Russia, Israel, China, France, UK, Italy, India, Japan)

12/17/ Strategic Deflectors (2) Multiple designs based on missiles and defense: CNSA (China): spacecraft ISRO (India): spacecraft Mars Orbiter Mission, standard Earth-orbiter bus heritage ISA (Israel): spacecraft Iron Dome missile system, Ofeq/Amos/Eros bus heritage JAXA (Japan): spacecraft Missile defense system and Hayabusa heritage

12/17/ Launch Vehicles

12/17/ Ground Stations Goldstone Madrid Canberra Malargüe Cebreros New Norcia Svalbard TrollSat Kourou Bear Lakes Byalalu Yevpatoria Galenki Miyun Kashi Sanya

12/17/ Advantages of International Coordination More launch/trajectory options More ground stations Access to supercomputers for simulations Can operate many complementary spacecraft at once International approval politically necessary for nuclear fragmentation mission Mission too large for unilateral action International approval politically necessary for nuclear fragmentation mission Mission too large for unilateral action

12/17/ Future Studies EMF shielding for spacecraft near nuclear blast Autonomous target acquisition Communication between spacecraft without ground in the loop

12/17/ References Ahrens, T. J., & Harris, A. W. (1992). Deflection and fragmentation of near-Earth asteroids. Nature, 360(6403), Barrera, Mark. "Conceptual Design of an Asteroid Interceptor for a Nuclear Deflection Mission." Planetary Defense Conference. (2004): Web.. Birch, Douglas. "A New Use for Nuclear Weapons: Hunting Rogue Asteroids." The Center for Public Integrity, 16 Oct Web.. Dearborn, David. "Avoiding Armageddon: Diverting Asteroids with Nuclear Explosives." University of California Television: 08 Feb Web.. Eyes on the Solar System NASA Web.. Lakdawalla, Emily. "Pretty Pictures: Amazing Asteroid Lutetia." The Planetary Society, 10 Apr Web.. MIM-104 Patriot. Photograph. Wikipedia. Minuteman III Missile. Photograph. Air Force Reserve Command Space Asset Media GalleryWeb.. Space Rocket Launch Sites Around the World. Photograph. Space Today OnlineWeb.. Spinning Asteroid 4. Photograph. Web.. "United States, Russia Sign Agreement to Further Research and Development Collaboration in Nuclear Energy and Security." 16 Sep 2013: n. page. Web. 17 Dec Wie, B., & Dearborn, D. (2010, February). Earth-Impact Modeling and Analysis of a Near-Earth Object Fragmented and Dispersed by Nuclear Subsurface Explosions. In 20th AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting (Vol. 10, p. 137).