PREDICTING 2012 HOMICIDES IN ST. LOUIS Alan Chang Curt Rozycki Kris Turner IS 6833 SPRING 2012.

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Presentation transcript:

PREDICTING 2012 HOMICIDES IN ST. LOUIS Alan Chang Curt Rozycki Kris Turner IS 6833 SPRING 2012

According to FBI crime reporting data, St. Louis was considered to be the most dangerous city in the United States in An Index Score of 100 is equal to the national crime rate. This means that St. Louis had a crime rate of more than five times the national average. Introduction

Collect geographic data Project Start Analysis Regression Model (Individual) Run Multiple Regression Analysis the X and Y variable Predict the number of 2012 Project Close Determine which models for 2011 Linear Regression model for 2012 Determine Individual Variable Analysis Approach Flow Chart

St. Louis City Map (79 different neighborhoods)

2011 St. Louis City Homicide Cases Basic Data

Variable List Population Murder/capita Race (White/Africa American/Asian) Median Household Income Education Level (Complete High School Degree) Married Male/Female Ratio Have Children (under 18yrs) Median Home Value

2011 Homicide Victim Statistics

Regression Models Married/Median Household Income Model A African American/Median Household Income/Education Level/Married Model B White Only/Median Household Income Model C African American/Median Household Income/Education Level Model D White Only/Median Household Income/Education Level/Married Model E Population/White Only/African American Only/Asian Only Model F African American Only/Population Density/Median Household Income/Education Level Model G Total 16 different Models

Model Comparison (Regression Analysis) 16 Models Regression Analysis

Best Model (Africa American + Murder/capita + Median Household Income + Education)

Estimate 79 different neighborhoods Analysis 79 neighborhoods 2012 Total 194 Homicides Result of the 2012

Predictions by Neighborhood Red -=> 5 Yellow -2~4 Green -<2 Top dangerous neighborhoods 1.Fairground 2.Baden 3.Jeff Vanderlou 4.Dutchtown

How to improve the prediction More updated yearly data by neighborhood More variables need provide (guns holders/drug users/genders) Other modeling method

Conclusion The model presented can be used to provide information to decision makers, such as social worker, polices, and people who want buy a new house.

cities Reference St. Louis City Guide (Education level/Household income..) St. Louis City Homicides data Census Data none St. Louis Crime Report reports/html_ df- a1f4-0017a4a78c22.html?appSession=