11 Steps Leading to Amsterdam and Beyond A much greater emphasis on frameworks for planned adaptation, and also to robust approaches to decision-making under uncertainty are needed. These raise distinctive needs in adaptation research, aimed at multiple nested scales, where improved conceptual frameworks are needed to even express the nested (heterarchical!) nature of adaptation to decision-makers at all scales. 1 ISSE/AIMES IAV Workshop, January 2009, NCAR, CO, USA Since AR4, a new state of need for policy makers: from being convinced that global change matters to needing to know how to act on it. This is a significant change in mindset… but also opens up opportunities for new collaborations among different interests in the community. For IAV, still need to understand impacts and potential autonomous adaptation, since this helps emphasize the case for strong mitigation;

22 Future Climate Change Research on Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation: From the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report onward 2 ISSE/AIMES IAV Workshop, January 2009, NCAR, CO, USA Goal of Amsterdam meeting is to outline gaps and research needs towards integrative climate change assessment for impact, adaptation and mitigation. An earlier workshop (Sydney 2007) focused on necessary observation systems and natural science aspects (Doherty et al., 2009). The Amsterdam ESSP workshop to focus on impacts and responses. Ultimate goal to articulate major research questions based on IPCC reports, recent societal trends and latest scientific insights to guide future research strategies.

333 ISSE/AIMES IAV Workshop, January 2009, NCAR, CO, USA Scoping topics for Amsterdam Integrated modeling for Earth system analysis (from speculation to prediction) Integrated analysis of complex causal attribution (including observed impacts) leading to scenarios for vulnerabilities, risks and adaptation Vulnerability and adaptation (including solidarity issues) Integrating economics for long-term climate protection The global deal: social costs and opportunities - including equity, development and sustainability issues (e.g., response policies, prices and emission pathways (transition to sustainability, new economic paradigms).