Residential Refrigerators and Freezers UES Measure Update Regional Technical Forum October 14, 2014

Measure Overview Baseline Type: Current Practice Current Category: Refrigerator-freezers: Proven Freezers: Small Saver Current Status: Active Current Sunset Date: Refrigerator-freezers: April 2015 Freezers: October 2014 Reason for Update/Review: New Federal Standards (effective September 15, 2014). New Energy Star and CEE criteria. 2

Staff Highlighted Areas Measure grouping – what is the right level of aggregation of product classes and sizes? Lifetime – use of median time to failure Change Freezer status from Small Saver to Proven? Expand measures to include compact products? 3

New federal standards (Sept 2015) are at a level where incremental savings are not cost effective. Spoiler Alert 4 Source: DOE NIA for Standard Size Refrigerators and Refrigerator-freezers. Costs in 2008$ Previous standard Current standard

New Federal Standards 5 42 classes of appliances (!) Combinations of – Configuration: {Single Door, Chest Freezer, All-Refrigerator, Top Freezer w/o Ice thru door, Top-Mounted Freezer, Bottom-Mounted Freezer, Internal Freezer, Side-by-Side, Upright Freezer} – Defrost Type: {Automatic, Partial automatic, Manual} – Built In: {True, False} – Compact: {True, False} – Automatic Ice Maker: {True, False} – Through-The-Door Service: {True, False} For each class, Standard is a linear function of adjusted volume (AV) – Annual Energy Consumption = m*AV + b – AV, Internal Freezer = Refrigerator Volume x Freezer Volume – AV, all others = Refrigerator Volume x Freezer Volume

New Federal Standards 6 Note: these standards are relative to a different testing procedure than the previous federal standards. Table in the DOE Technical Support Document for this rulemaking provides the previous standards expressed relative to the new test procedure. STD

New Energy Star and CEE Criteria 7 Criteria are expressed as a % lower annual energy consumption than Federal Standard – Energy Star: 10% – CEE Tier 1: 10% – CEE Tier 2: 15% – CEE Tier 3: 20% CEE Tiers do not cover freezers – Members did not want to encourage extra appliances Energy Star was previously 20% relative to previous Standard CEE Tiers were previously 20 to 25% / 25 to 30% / >30% relative to previous Standard

Measure Grouping There are not enough products to get good saving estimates for each class Proposed Grouping: {Fridge/Fridge- freezer, Freezer} x {not Compact, Compact} 8 Number of unique, recent products in the CEC database

Methods - Energy 9 Data source: CEC Appliance Database Classify all unique models registered from September 2013 onward. – “Unique”: only count models with same specifications once – “from September 2013 onward”: only consider recent models to approximate the post-Standard market Exclude models that are not Standard compliant – Also consider including these models, but setting energy consumption equal to federal standard Estimate market average annual energy consumption and Energy Star/CEE Tier eligible consumption Estimate savings for eligible products relative to this market average

Methods – HVAC Interaction 10 Data source: RTF Standard Information Workbook – 6 th Plan Estimate of HVAC Interaction (for lighting) based on distribution of heating system types in the NW Data source: RBSA – % of refrigerators and freezers in conditioned spaces, by type {standard size, compact} x {refrigerator and refrigerator-freezer, freezer}

Methods – Incremental Cost 11 Data source: DOE Technical Support Documents from rulemaking process – Incremental cost by level of efficiency, per product class For each Class, develop Cost vs. Efficiency curve fit. Determine cost for each efficiency tier of CEC models. Determine average cost for CEC models. Incremental cost = [Cost tier ] – [Cost average ]

Methods – Lifetime 12 Data source: DOE Technical Support Documents from rulemaking process Typically RTF uses expected useful lifetime. – But Guidelines call for median time to failure. “Measure lifetime is defined as the median number of years during which at least half the deliveries of a measure are in place and operable, i.e., produce savings.” RTF Guidelines for the Estimation of Measure Lifetime Section Used in current RTF measures

Results 13

What if we bring non-compliant models up to the Standard level, instead of throwing them out? 14

Summary of Changes to Analysis New federal standard New Energy Star and CEE criteria Updated CEC appliance database set Include compact models Remove CEC entries that are not Standard compliant Incremental costs from DOE rulemaking Lifetime – Refrigerator-freezer: change from mean to median time to failure, as per Guidelines 15

Current and Proposed Measure Comparison 16

Current and Proposed Measure Comparison 17

Current and Proposed Measure Comparison 18

Current and Proposed Measure Comparison

Decision “I __________________ move to: Approve the updates to the Residential Refrigerator and Freezers UES measures as presented. Do not include non-compliant CEC Appliance Database models in the analysis Expand measures to include compact products Use median, rather than mean, time to failure for lifetime. Set the Status of both measures to ‘Active’. Set the Category of both measures to ‘Proven’. Set the Sunset date to October, 2019.” 20