J.P.Morgan Chase Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee Paris, France December 10, 2010 S T R I C T L Y P R I V A T E A N D C O N F I D E N T I A L Imbalances.

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Presentation transcript:

J.P.Morgan Chase Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee Paris, France December 10, 2010 S T R I C T L Y P R I V A T E A N D C O N F I D E N T I A L Imbalances in International Economic System Dr. Jacob A. Frenkel Chairman, JPMorgan Chase International

J.P.Morgan Chase GLOBES, Israel Business Conference Tel Aviv, Israel December 12-13, 2010 S T R I C T L Y P R I V A T E A N D C O N F I D E N T I A L Imbalances in the Global Economic System Dr. Jacob A. Frenkel Chairman, JPMorgan Chase International Chairman, Group of Thirty (G30) Former Governor, Bank of Israel

12/7/ Six Global Imbalances International Payments Imbalances International Payments Imbalances China and the Global System China and the Global System Fiscal Imbalances Fiscal Imbalances Imbalances and the Euro-zone Crisis Imbalances and the Euro-zone Crisis Imbalances between Developed and Developing Countries Imbalances between Developed and Developing Countries Long-term Demographic Challenges Long-term Demographic Challenges

12/7/ Global Payments Imbalances Current Accounts Imbalances Current Accounts Imbalances International Reserves International Reserves Foreign Holdings of US Treasuries Foreign Holdings of US Treasuries Savings Imbalances Savings Imbalances

5 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 US$ billions, 2011 Current Account of Balance of Payments

6 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 Current Account of Balance of Payments

7 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 StockStock Flow (2005 – 2010) Flow Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves (Bill. Usd)

8 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 Global Treasury Holdings

9 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 Gross National Savings as a % of GDP

12/7/ China and the Trading System China and the Trading System The Destinations of Exports The Destinations of Exports International Reserves and Exchange Rates International Reserves and Exchange Rates China and the Global System China and the Global System

11 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 U.S.&EU People’s Republic of China Exports Imports Imports Exports Asia China’s Role in Global Trade (bill. Usd)

12 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 European Union Exports by Destination

13 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 U.S. Exports by Destination

14 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 China Exports by Destination

15 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 China Foreign Exchange Reserves

16 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 China’s Foreign Exchange: Yuan/USD, Yuan/EUR

12/7/ Budget Deficits Budget Deficits Public Debt Public Debt Fiscal Imbalances Fiscal Imbalances

18 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 Fiscal Positions: General Government Net Lending/Borrowing

19 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 Fiscal Positions: Net Public Debt

12/7/ Unemployment & Competitiveness Unemployment & Competitiveness Budget Deficits and Public Debt Budget Deficits and Public Debt Savings and Payments Imbalances Savings and Payments Imbalances Spreads, CDS, and Banks Spreads, CDS, and Banks “Bad Zones” and the Crisis “Bad Zones” and the Crisis Imbalances & The Euro-Zone Crisis

21 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 Unemployment Rate (%): Selected Euro Area Countries

22 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 Relative Unit Labor Costs

23 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 Fiscal Position: General Government Net Lending/Borrowing – Euro Area Countries

24 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 Fiscal Positions: Net Public Debt – Select Euro Area Economies

25 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 Change in Gross National Saving Rate: Select European Counties (2000 – 2009) Change between Change between

26 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 Change in Gross National Saving Rate: Select European Countries (2000 – 2009)

27 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 Euro Area Current Account Balance Decomposed (% of GDP)

28 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 Domestic and External Gross Government Debt (% of GDP)

29 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/ yr Government Bond Yield Spread

30 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 European Sovereign and Corporate CDS Spreads

31 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 Bank Holdings of Government Securities

32 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 Gross Government Debt and Budget Deficit (% of GDP 2009)

33 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 Current Account Balance and Budget Deficit (% of GDP 2009)

34 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 Gross National Saving Rate and Budget Deficit (% of GDP 2009)

12/7/ GDP: Distribution and Growth GDP: Distribution and Growth Demographic Trends Demographic Trends Imbalances Between Developed and Developing Countries

36 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 Real GDP Growth (%) World Economy

37 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 Advanced & Emerging Economies Contribution to Global GDP Growth

38 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 Global GDP Shares

39 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 Source: United Nations Populations Division, Last update 2009 World Population Shares (2010 – 2030)

40 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 Source: United Nations Populations Division, Last update 2009 World Population Shares (2010 – 2030)

41 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 Source: United Nations Populations Division, Last update 2009 World Demographic Projection

42 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 Developed Countries Demographic Projection Source: United Nations Populations Division, Last update 2009

43 J.P.Morgan Chase 12/7/2010 Developing Countries Demographic Projection Source: United Nations Populations Division, Last update 2009