Utilizing IBD Ideas for Commodity Related Investing Daryl Montgomery Organizer, New York Investing meetup Copyright 2008 – All Rights Reserved

The Big Picture for Bull/Bear Markets Secular (long-term) Bull/Bear Markets alternate between Stocks and Commodities Secular trends last for about 20 years. Secular Stock Bull from 1982 to 2000 Secular Commodities Bear from 1980 to 2000 Secular Stock Bear market from 2000 to ? Secular Bull Commodity market from 2000 to ? Long-term trends favor commodity investing (not necessarily the stocks) for the foreseeable future.

The Previous Secular Stock Bear/ Commodity Bull Took place between 1966 to Period of rising and high inflation/ declining dollar. Dow hit 1000 in 1966, 1968, 1972 and 1982; had the biggest sell off in 1973/74. Oil prices went from $3 a barrel in 1972 to $12 a barrel in 1974 to $40 a barrel in Gold went from $35 an ounce in 1972 to $195 in 1974* to $875 an ounce in Silver went from $3 an ounce in 1972 to $10 an ounce in 1974 to $50 an ounce in Nixon devalued the U.S. dollar by 10% in 1973.

The Current Secular Stock Bear/ Commodity Bull Market The S&P 500 hit 1500 in 2000 and 1500 in The Dow and Russell 2000 hit higher highs. Oil hit $40 in 2004, $103 in March. Gold hit $875 in January. Silver’s high is $21. A number of food commodities have hit all-time highs. The U.S. dollar lost 10% of its value between Sept 2007 and March 2008.

You can invest in Commodities with ETFs - List of Inflation Hedges, No Equities, Long Gold – GLD, IAU, DGL, DGP(200%) Silver – SLV, DBS Precious Metals – DBP Food – DBA, JJA, EOH, RJA Oil – UCR, OIL, DBO Energy Complex – USO, DBE, JJE, RJN Natural Gas - UNC

S&P Year Monthly- Long-Term Sideways Trading

Dow Jones 10 Year Monthly – Testing Break Out

Nasdaq 10 Year Monthly – Bubble Top, Secular Bear

SP500 One-Year Daily – Bear Market Pattern

Dow Jones One-Year Daily – Bear Market Pattern

Nasdaq One-Year Daily – Bear Market Pattern

U.S. Dollar – All Time Lows

GLD One Year Daily Bull Pattern

SLV One-Year Daily Bull Pattern

USO One-Year Daily Bull Pattern

DBA One-Year Daily Bull Pattern

GLD -3 Year Weekly Flat Base with Breakout

SLV 1 Year Daily Flat Base with Breakout

USO 3 Yr Weekly – Cup, Handle, High-Volume Breakout

DBA One-Year Daily Flat Base