Coming together or coming apart? America and the 2012 election John Mark Hansen March 2012

Vote on Affordable Care Act, 2010

The debt-ceiling crisis, 2011

Exodus of the moderates Senator Evan Bayh (D-Ind.), 2010 "There is too much partisanship and not enough progress -- too much narrow ideology and not enough practical problem- solving. Even at a time of enormous challenge, the peoples' business is not being done." Senator Olympia Snowe (R-Me.), 2012 "It's a reflection of the political dynamic in America, where we don't look at America as a whole. We look at it through the red and blue prism. [We have a] Senate and an overall process that lends itself to dysfunction and political paralysis that doesn't allow problems to be solved."

Polarization in U.S. government

Structure of U.S. government President of the United States 435 United States Representatives 100 United States Senators

Support for the President’s policies by party

Ideology by party in the House, 1967

Ideology by party in the House, 1967 & 2007

Polarization in the U.S. electorate

Ideology in the U.S. electorate (ANES)

Ideology in the U.S. electorate by party

Ideology in the U.S. electorate by party (ANES)

Public approval of the President’s job performance by party (Gallup)  Democrats  Republicans

Polarization and elections

The Election Fundamentals Presidential performance ▫Condition of the economy ▫Condition of foreign affairs Incumbency Baseline partisanship of the electorate Positioning of the candidates on the issues

Obama’s challenges Baseline partisanship of the electorate (ANES)

Obama’s challenges Positioning of candidates on the issues (ANES)

Obama’s challenges Approval of job performance

Obama’s challenges and advantages Condition of the economy

Obama’s advantages Condition of foreign affairs At peace ▫Withdrawal from Iraq ▫Withdrawal from Afghanistan Successful operations ▫Osama bin Laden ▫Libya ▫Egypt

Obama’s advantages Incumbency Incumbent WinnersIncumbent Losers George W. Bush Bill Clinton Ronald Reagan Richard M Nixon Lyndon B Johnson Dwight Eisenhower Harry S Truman Franklin D Roosevelt George H W Bush Jimmy Carter Gerald Ford 10 successes in 13 attempts (77 percent)

Congress: Senate Class I Senators Elected in 2006 or special elections since Partisan composition ▫21 Democrats (6 retiring) ▫10 Republicans (3 retiring) ▫2 Independents (1 retiring)

Congress: House of Representatives

And then what?

If a Republican wins … Continued polarization Less urgency for debt reduction and spending cuts Tit for tat: No incentive for congressional Democrats to cooperate Strains on the Republican electoral coalition

Partisanship of electorate by birth cohort

If Obama wins … Continued polarization No “mandate” Fewer incentives for sabotage Shared responsibility Necessity: The double witching hour

Federal budget timeline

Impact of sequestrations under Budget Control Act of 2011 (New York Times 22 July 2011)

Coming together – in spite of ourselves

Coming together or coming apart? America and the 2012 election John Mark Hansen March 2012

2008 and 2010 elections in historical context

Support for the President’s policies by party

Party Unity votes in Congress

Relation of congressional and presidential voting

Obama’s challenges and advantages Perception of candidates’ positions on the issues Probability of vote margin (Silver)

Latino vote for Democratic and Republican nominees, 1972 – 2008

State partisanship and net benefit from government