1 Syria and Chemical Weapons: Building a World Free of WMD Paul F. Walker, Ph.D. Director, Security & Sustainability Green Cross International Washington DC, USA George Mason University Fairfax, Virginia October 16, 2013

Alleged CW Use in Syria July 23, 2012 – Syria confirms CW December 23 – Homs attack, 7 killed March 19, 2013 – Aleppo & Damascus March 24 – Adra April 13 – Aleppo April 29 – Saraqeb 2

Syria’s CWC Accession August 21, 2013 – Large scale CW attack in Ghouta region. 1,400+ killed, including 400 children. September 14 – Syria accedes to CWC October 14 – CWC enters into force for Syria as 190 th State Party 3

4 World War I Over 1 million injured by gas attacks, and some 90,000 killed

5 Chemical Weapons Threats Iran-Iraq War Iraq attack on Halabja in Gulf War 1995 Tokyo subway attack Ongoing terrorist threats of WMD Syria

6 8 Declared CW Stockpiles Russia40,000 metric tons USA28,600 metric tons India 1,000+ metric tons (est) South Korea 1,000+ metric tons (est) Libya 26+ metric tons Albania 16 metric tons Iraq na Syria 1,000 metric tons (est) TOTAL72,500 +/- metric tons

7 Declared U.S. CW Stockpile: 31,495 US tons (9 stockpile sites in 8 states and Johnston Atoll) Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Tooele, Utah (44%) Newport Chemical Depot Newport, Indiana (4%) Pueblo Chemical Depot Pueblo, Colorado (8%) Pine Bluff Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Pine Bluff, Arkansas (12%) Umatilla Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Hermiston, Oregon (12%) Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Tooele, Utah (44%) Aberdeen Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Edgewood, Maryland (5%) Newport Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Newport, Indiana (4%) Blue Grass Army Depot Richmond, Kentucky (2%) Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Anniston, Alabama (7%) Pine Bluff Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Pine Bluff, Arkansas (12%) Pueblo Chemical Depot Pueblo, Colorado (8%) Johnston Atoll Chemical Agent Disposal System South Pacific (6%)

8 Declared R.F. CW Stockpile: 40,000 tons (7 stockpiles in 5 Oblasts and the Udmurt Republic)

9 Shchuch’ye Chemical Weapons

10 Shchuch’ye Stockpile

11 Chemical Weapons Convention Entered into force in States Parties CW stockpiles destroyed by 2012 Inspection of commercial industry Five-year RevCons 2003, 2008, & 2013

12 CW Destruction in US 1990 – present 25,650 MT destroyed (90%) 7 stockpiles closed $25 billion+ spent to date 10 more years to go 2 facilities under construction

13 CW Destruction in Russia 2002 – present 30,400 MT destroyed (76%) 2 stockpiles neutralized $7+ billion spent to date 3-6+ years to go

14 Other CWD Progress Albania – 16 MT destroyed (100%) 2007 South Korea – 1,000+ MT destroyed (100%) 2008 India – 1,000+ MT destroyed (100%) 2009 Libya – 23 +/- MT destroyed (88%) (excl. Sched. 2) Iraq – Declared 2009 Syria – Declared 2013

15 Russian CW Demil (est. Sept 2013) Gorny neutralized Dec02-Dec05 – 1,143 MT Kambarka neutralized Dec05-Apr09 – 6,349 MT Maradikovsky neutralized 6,200 MT (90%) since Sept 06 (6,890 MT total) Leonidovka neutralized 6,200 MT (90%) since 2008 (6,885 MT total) Shchuch’ye neutralized 4,350 MT (80%) since March 2009 (5,456 MT total) Pochep neutralized 4,500 MT (60%) since November 2010 (7,498 MT) Kizner to open late 2013 (5,745 MT)

16 US CW Demil (Feb 2012) Johnston Atoll – , 100% destroyed Tooele – , 100% destroyed Anniston – , 100% destroyed Aberdeen – , 100% destroyed Umatilla – , 100% destroyed Pine Bluff – , 100% destroyed Newport – , 100% neutralized Pueblo – , 0% (2,520 tons) Blue Grass – , 0% (523 tons)

17 Challenge #1 – Cost US cost first estimated at $2B Now approaching $40B RF cost first estimated at $3-4B Now estimated at $10B+ Not including non- stockpile & sea-dumped

18 Challenge #2 – Technology High temperature incineration or low temperature neutralization Management of effluent toxic wastes Impacts on public health & environment

19 Challenge #3 – Emergency Preparedness Most communities feel ill-prepared Gas masks, plastic & duct tape distributed for “shelter in place” Early warning radios and sirens lacking Transportation for evacuation

20 Challenge #4 – Community Investment and Involvement

21 Shchuch’ye, Kurgan Oblast

22 Challenge #5 – Transparency

23 Green Cross Outreach Office Proactive outreach to local & regional constituencies Reactive response to all inquiries Facilitation of stakeholder involvement Empowerment of local communities

24 Community Outreach

25 Challenge #6 – CWC Deadlines CWC stockpile destruction deadlines: April 2000 – 1% of stockpiles (3 yrs after EIF) April 2002 – 20% of stockpiles (5 yrs) April 2004 – 45% of stockpiles (7 yrs) April 2007 – 100% of stockpiles (10 yrs) April 2012 – 5-year extension (15 yrs) No possessor State Party has met all deadlines

26 CWC Deadlines (cont.) United States Met 1% (2000) and 20% (2002) deadlines Met 3-yr extended 45% deadline (2007) Received 5-yr extension for 100% deadline to 2012 Russian Federation Met 3-yr extended 1% and 5-yr extended 20% deadlines Received 5+-yr extension for 45% deadline to December 2009 Received 5-yr extension for 100% deadline to 2012

27 CWC Deadlines (cont.) Albania – Did not request 100% extended deadline and missed April 2007 by 2 months India – Met 100% deadline extension to April 2009 (2 yr extension) South Korea – Met 100% deadline extension to December 2008 (20-mo ext) Libya – Received 100% deadline extensions to Dec. 2010, Dec. 2011, Apr. 2012, and Dec. 2016

28 Challenge #7 – Congressional Deadline Congress has mandated December 2017 as final deadline for completing CWD Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO): “It is no secret that DOD is going to miss the 2012 treaty deadline for weapons destruction at Pueblo. That's what happens when you drag your feet and fail to put adequate resources behind a program… This is absurd, especially with DOD's own admission that with higher funding levels they could complete destruction at Pueblo a full five years earlier than that.” (25 Feb 08)

29 What’s to be Done? Emphasis must be placed on the critical importance of State Parties to fully fund and implement their ongoing chemical weapons destruction programs – US – $ M+/yr for construction US Cooperative Threat Reduction – $50M+/yr for CWD RF – $1B+/yr for CW destruction G-8 Global Partnership – $100M+/yr

30 What’s to be Done? Don’t underestimate public concerns and political power – be transparent and involve stakeholders – preclude legal suits Recognize inherent tension between cost, schedule, transparency, & safety – protection of public health & environment Improve US-RF relations and move beyond recent G-8 Global Partnership differences

31 What’s to be Done? Promote full CWC universality Six countries Angola Egypt Israel Myanmar (Burma) North Korea South Sudan

The Challenge of Syria OPCW to inspect and inventory Syrian declaration All weapons, agents, production & lab facilities destroyed Full security & safety guaranteed for inspectors & workers 32

The Challenge of Syria What does Syria’s CW stockpile consist of? What destruction technologies are best? Can the chemicals, agents, and weapons be moved? How much will this all cost? 33

34 Buried Chemical Weapons

35 Spring Valley, Washington DC

36 Sea-Dumped Chemical Weapons

UN Resolution on SDCW Notes the importance of raising public awareness of the environmental effects… Invites Member States…to cooperate and voluntarily share relevant information… Invites the Secretary-General to seek the views of Member States and relevant regional and international organizations at 68 th UN General Assembly in 2013… 37

WMDFZ in the Middle East Syria’s CWC accession provides incentive for Israel & Egypt to join Also encourages all to join BWC And begin to address nuclear weapons in the Mideast – Israel & Iran 38

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