Shell Gas LPG (Pakistan) Limited

Demand (Million TOEs) Case – I (worst case) Case – II (best case) Deficits (Million TOEs) Case – I (19.31)(33.32)(57.55) Case – II (24.37)(47.58)(85.64) Growing Energy Gap Case 1(Worst case): 4% GDP growth projections Case II(Best case): 5.8% GDP growth projections Conversion Rate For TOE to LPG MT = TOE*1.08 -Forecasts prepared by Petroleum Industry of Pakistan (PIP) for the oil marketing & producing companies

The shaded spots represent 80%+ of current genuine domestic volume Approx. 6K POS (FMCG POS Universe 200K+) Number of households = 24 Million LPG penetration = 7% Current estimated segment volume = 160 Kt/annum 2007 Domestic Packed : Demand Coverage : key for domestic business development Impact of increasing penetration by 1% : 24K ! (4% Of LPG industry Volume) Impact of increasing per capita consumption by 1 kg/month : 21K ! Current per month usage = 8 Kg

Commercial Potential Current estimated commercial volume is 100K Mt/annum Main segments include; HotelsBakery RestaurantsSweets Metal cuttingCatering Available Potential: ApplicationEstimated LPG Equivalent Consumption/annum Sweets (Khoya & Gur)800 K Mt Tobacco Curing100 K Mt Social ceremonies (catering etc) 150 K Mt Rural bakeries, ovens & restaurants 30 K Mt Water Heating12 K Mt Total1,092 Mt Currently these applications are using wood & coal To make the conversions conservative, 100% dry coal usage has been assumed

Issues & Challenges Cross- Filling Decanting Pricing caps & Subsidies Penetration into rural areas Inland freight infrastructure