Advisor: Professor Fukuda Student: Jason Woodring Climate analysis software to assist climate researchers in the detection of extreme weather events.

World Climate …. Is changing Rising Temperatures… But why? What to blame?

Human Caused Climate Change 95% chance it’s us according to climate scientists

Local sea level rise Decreased snowpack Glaciers in decline Stream flow peaks earlier in year Ocean acidification The Impact

What's being done about it? Simulated World Climate Data is produced using Many different models Climate Scientists Analyze this Data in different ways to try to predict extreme weather events

Climate Analysis Large climate science facilities may have dedicated computing resources to analyze these climate models. Small to medium size labs often are resource constrained, and create custom tools.

PNCA Inherited PNCA Put climate analysis software in more researchers hands Abstract out complex computer science concepts Framework Allows researchers to write custom analysis

What's Needed An application that is easily accessible Performs calculations which performs better than their custom script counterparts Allows for parameters for calculations to be adjusted Something easy to use (no coding necessary)

UWCA Web Based Application Performs Time of Emergence calculations Utilizes UW-320 Linux lab computing cluster Using MASS Agents to travel computing Nodes to analyze NetCDF data

Input Data NetCDF Software [4] A set of libraries and self-describing, machine independent data formats that support the creation, access, and sharing of array-oriented scientific data. Free software available All sorts of software packages and APIs for working with NetCDF from different environments.

Parallelization MASS [2] Created specifically for scientific analysis Using MASS analyze NetCDF files

Provenance (to come from…) Tracking Calculations Tracking parameters used in calculations Derived files will contain metadata about how they were derived

Architecture

Implementation Official Project Started Using NetBeans 7.4 Using Maven Enterprise Application Archetype Needing dependencies

Workflow Based 1. Select management variable to calculate 2. Select climate model(s) to use 1. Multiple climate models result in multiple calculations 3. Select type of output (high or low estimates) 4. Select parameters for ToE calculations 5. Then wait….. And view job status

GUI (first pass) Application Header Job Status Viewer Job Creator

Calculations Management Variables Excel sheet documenting types of variables Climate resources on remote Kraken machine Simpler, but resource intensive ToE Much more conceptually complex Less of a performance hit

When the average conditions consistently exceed some threshold extreme weather events are more likely to happen. An essential calculation for predicting climate behavior. Time of Emergence (ToE)

Plug directly into ToE calculations. There are many defined Management Variables

ToE Calculation…

NetCDF Operators My requirements gathering has led me to the point where I NEED to learn ncl scripting All the calculations for ToE and management variables are already done in ncl Stakeholders didn’t comment any of it… and haven’t produced sufficient documentation on how to do the calculations

Future state of Visualization PNCA uses off the shelf software, Panopoly viewer. First version will have downloadable files Research needed on web visualization tools for the long term

Schedule Gantt View

Resources Computing resources Hercules computer UW1-320 computing lab Network drive for NetCDF files Domain Resources Climate Researcher to feed requirements UW Tacoma climate science team

Risks Stakeholder availability Countermeasure: Contact stakeholders more frequently Scope too large Countermeasure: Feature drop (still architect in a way that allows extensibility)

CDS&E:small:Multi-Agent-Based Parallelization of Scientific Data Analysis and Simulation Munehiro Fukuda Michael Stiber Eric Salath´e Wooyoung Kim THE WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECAST MODEL: SOFTWARE ARCHITECTURE AND PERFORMANCE J. MICHALAKES, J. DUDHIA, D. GILL, T. HENDERSON,J. KLEMP, W. SKAMAROCK, W. WANG Supporting Provenance in Climate Science Research Brett Yasutake, Niko Simonson, Hazeline Asuncion, Munehiro Fukuda, Eric Salathe International Journal of High Performance Computing Applications: Scaling Properties of Common Statistical Operators for Gridded Datasets Charles S. Zender and Harry Mangalam MASS: Parallel-Computing Library for Multi-Agent Spatial SimulationJ. MICHALAKES, J. DUDHIA, D. GILL, T. HENDERSON,J. Munehiro Fukuda Estimates of 21st Century Flood Risk 1 in the Pacific Northwest Eric P. Salathe State of Knowledge Report Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Washington State: Technical Summaries for Decision Makers References

Time of Emergence of Climate Change Signals in the Puget Sound Basin Quality Assurance Project Plan The Climate Impacts Group University of Washington Determining the time of emergence of the climate change signal at regional scales Les C. Muir, Jaclyn N. Brow, James S. Risbey, Susan E. Wijffels and Alex Sen Gupta Time of emergence of climate signals Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. Time of emergence of trends in ocean biogeochemistry K.M. Keller, F. Joos, and C. C. Raible References (cont.)