Prime of an NBA Career Cooper Handelsman. Research Question Is the prime of an NBA player at age 27? Has this prime changed over the last thirty years?

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Presentation transcript:

Prime of an NBA Career Cooper Handelsman

Research Question Is the prime of an NBA player at age 27? Has this prime changed over the last thirty years?

Subjects 38 participants in total 3 different draft classes: 1979, 1989, 1990 Must have played in every season from age 24-30

Statistics Four different statistics: PER, PPG, APG, RPG To find the peak, there are two different methods – Fitted line plot with quadratic model – Picking the best season

Tests Five test were run in order to test hypothesis – For the prime of the career: 1-sample t-test Wilcoxon signed rank – For the differences between decades: 1-sample ANOVA Kruskal-Wallis Multiple Comparisons (Steel-Dwass-Critchlow-Fligner )

1-sample t-test Procedure done 8 times H 0 : μ = 27 vs. H 1 : μ ≠27. t statistics: to P-values: 0.00 to Reject the null for all tests, mean is significantly different than 27

Wilcoxon Signed-rank Performed 8 times H 0 : θ=0 vs. H 1 : θ≠0 Wilcoxon test statistics: 68.5 to 117 P-values: 0.0 to.028 Reject the null for all tests, the median is significantly different from 27

Confidence Intervals

Differences Between the Decades Three decades represented: 1980, 1990, 2000 Peak is not important, it is just comparing the peaks regardless of what it is ANOVA and Kruskal-Wallis

ANOVA Four assumption that are all met H 0: μ 1980 = μ 1990 = μ 2000 vs. H 1 : μ 1980 ≠ μ 1990 ≠μ 2000 PER: F-statistic of 2.06, p-value of.129 PPG: F-statistic of 1.50, p-value of.225 APG: F-statistic of.64, p-value of.53 RPG: F-statistic of 4.06, p-value of.018

Kruskal-Wallis H 0 : T 1980 =T 1990 =T 2000 vs. H 1 : not all T j ’s are equal PER: H-value of 4.89, p-value of.087 PPG: H-value of 3.51, p-value of.172 APG: H-value was.35, p-value of.84 RPG: H-value of 14.14, p-value of.001

Multiple Comparisons Steel-Dwass-Critchlow-Fligner test T u ≠ T v if w* I j ≥ w* α 1980 and 1990: w* ij = and 2000: w* ij = and 2000: w* ij =

Conclusion The prime of an NBA player’s career is not at age 27 The prime for a player has not changed in the last thirty years, except for rebounding