Economic Outlook 2001 Hawaii Economic Association Annual Conference May 4, 2001

HEA Conference May 4, 2001http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO Economic Outlook Year in Review Business Cycle Expansion Accelerates2000 Year in Review 2001 Economic Outlook *US Economic expansion continues at slower pace *Japanese Economy shows signs of weakening *Hawai’i economic engine firing on all cylinders

HEA Conference May 4, 2001http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO 2000 Year in Review Visitor Industry Turns in a Banner Year *Eastbound Arrivals grow with Japanese Economy *Westbound Arrivals growth not quite as strong as expected *Room rates rise 6.3 %, Real Hotel tax base up more than 10%

HEA Conference May 4, 2001http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO 2000 Year in Review Construction Sector leads expansion *Home Resales continue strong *Permits growth slows

HEA Conference May 4, 2001http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO 2000 Year in Review Job Growth Strongest in a Decade *Non Ag Job growth exceeds 3% *Employment growth lower *Unemployment below US average

HEA Conference May 4, 2001http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO 2000 Year in Review Expanding Economy Grows Real Tax Base *Retail tax base grows with visitor industry and local income. *Hotels have a banner year. *GE tax base expands more slowly than spending plans!

HEA Conference May 4, 2001http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO 2000 Year in Review Income Growth and Prices *Real income growth strongest in 11 years *Inflation almost doubles *Real income growth slower than job growth?

HEA Conference May 4, 2001http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO Year 2001: Global Outlook US expansion continues at slower pace *Manufacturing sector in recession *Alan and George both in the mood to contribute *Real consumption expenditures up by 2% 2001Q1 Japanese Economy- Some things Never Change! *Industrial production and business confidence slow. *Consumer confidence and spending plans decline

HEA Conference May 4, 2001http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO US Income Growth Slows Japan? Were Still Waiting

HEA Conference May 4, 2001http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO 2001 Outlook: All Sectors Contribute to Growth Visitor growth expected near 2% Real contracting will expand by 9.7% Job and Employment growth will continue Real income to grow at 2.5% Inflation will accelerate to 2.4%

HEA Conference May 4, 2001http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO Visitor Arrivals Growth Moderates

HEA Conference May 4, 2001http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO Expected Contracting Growth Strongest in 10 years

HEA Conference May 4, 2001http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO Labor Market Firms

HEA Conference May 4, 2001http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO Moderate Real Income Growth Continues

HEA Conference May 4, 2001http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO Honolulu Inflation Still Playing Catch Up

HEA Conference May 4, 2001http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO 2001 Outlook