Outline Global Climate Change Projections Local Climate Change Observations 1998 Flood at NASA ARC Anticipated Impacts of Climate Change Suggested Adaptation Strategies

Global Climate Predictions Global Mean Sea Level Rise o SRES A1B = 2.1 – 6.0 mm / yr o SRES B1 = 1.5 – 3.9 mm / yr o SRES A2 = 3.0 – 8.5 mm / yr Global Annual Temperature Increase o SRES A1B = 1.7 – 4.4 °C o SRES B1 = °C o SRES A2 = °C Precipitation Pattern Changes o Varies based on location o Western US  More winter and less summer precipitation  Overall drying through out the year

Global Sea Level RiseGlobal and Local Sea Level Rise Local spikes in sea level are a major concern Source: IPCCSource: IPCC and NOAA Local Sea level has trended with global levels SRES A1B Projection

Moffett Field Temperature Record Mean air temperature increased 0.58°C per decade Consistent with global trends of temperature increases Source: NOAA / NCDC [Data Gap]

Moffett Field Precipitation Record High seasonal variability in precipitation totals, consistent with a Mediterranean climate Large variability in precipitation totals projected during the 21 st century [Data Gap] [Data Gap] Source: NOAA / NCDC

Intense Events At NASA Ames February 2-9, 1998 Flooding NASA Ames Research Center has been severely impacted by weather systems before Previous experiences give an idea of what to expect due to climate change Image Source: NOAA / NCDC Technical Report no

Tidal Conditions During Flood Unusually high neap tide Sea Level elevation influenced by El Nino and met conditions Source: NOAA

Meteorological Effect on Tides -1 hPa (SLP) = +1 cm (SL) On Feb 2, 1998 o SLP of 1008 hPa On Feb 3, 1998 o SLP of 990 hPa Increase of local sea level by approximately 18 cm Short term wind fluctuations do not impact sea elevation normally. Winter storms have more effect due to stronger winds. Winds cause the water to set- up along the coast. AKA storm surge Source: NOAA / NCDC

Precipitation During Flood 7 of 8 previous days had measurable rainfall totals Over 88 mm of rainfall on February 3, 1998 Corresponds with largest spike in 6- hr precipitation rates 6 hr rates spiked on Feb 3 rd at nearly 40mm/ 6 hrs Source: NOAA / NCDC

Season Weather Rankings January o 5thwarmest January on record o Highest number of days with rain for Januarys on record with 20 days Winter (Dec, Jan, & Feb) o Highest number of days with rain for winters on record with 48 days o 2 nd highest total precipitation for winters on record Parameter February 1998 Value 1945 to 2009 Rank Mean Temperature (°C) Mean Sea Level Pressure (hPa) Mean Wind Speed (m/s)2.95 Total Precipitation (mm) Days with Rainfall (count)241 Source: NOAA / NCDC

Total Precipitation Vs. Rainfall Days Precipitation totals and frequency of rainfall days were factors in the February 1998 Flood Other winters to examine in the future include 1972/73, 1977/78, and 1992/ / / / /98 Source: NOAA / NCDC

February 1998 Flood: Impacts

February 1998 Flood: Response Sandbagging o Over 400 people involved o 15,000 sandbags required Increasing pump capacity o From 1.2 million gallons / hour o To nearly 3 million gallons / hour

February 1998 Flood: Improvements Improved Drainage o Increased pump capacity o Dredged channels protecting NASA ARC o Storm water retention and evaporation ponds increased Severe Weather Procedure Improvements o Preparing pumps and sandbags prior to storms o Monitoring of water pump rate during storms

Increasing Frequency of Floods due to SLR Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (Miller, 1998) 30 cm SLR by about 2040 Peak High Tide Level (m) (relative to MLLW)

Anticipated Impacts of Climate Change Source: BCDC and Army Corps of Engineers By 2100 SLR will have nearly as much of an impact as a 500-year flood event 40 cm SLR year flood-plain 140 cm SLR 2100

Anticipated Impacts of Climate Change Drainage Issues o Loss of current drainage holding ponds (wetlands and salt marshes) o Increased difficulty and cost to pump water to the bay due to increased sea level Groundwater Flow Changes o Contaminated ground water plumes shift and spread o More water intrusion into basements Other o Increased occurrence of drought o Power/ water availability and cost increases o Loss of wildlife habitat

Suggested Adaptation Strategies Shoreline protections Identification of structures vulnerable to inundation or flooding and those affected by the 1998 flood Storm water runoff and drainage studies Groundwater flow studies Studies into San Francisco Bay hydrodynamics Increase flood management Reassess the risk posed by SLR at regular intervals Collect and archive relevant data o Topographic data o Moffett Field Tide Gauge

Probable Financial Implications Climate Change will increase the likelihood of NASA ARC being impacted by flooding o SLR expected by 2100 would impact nearly as much as a 500-year flood without sea level rise  364,665,994 is the current replacement value of at risk buildings  $66,965,480 of building contents at risk Investment in adaptation strategies could mitigate some of that expense and lost time Assume the 1998 flood was an 100-year event 40 cm SLR by 2050 Flood of this magnitude shifts to about once every 10 years!

Suggested Future Work Collection and analysis of satellite sea level measurements of San Francisco Bay Increase use of climate model downscaling Evaluation of snow water equivalent / snow pack changes to identify power/ water availability changes Examine other winter precipitation events such as 1972/1973, 1977/78 and 1992/93 Continued with other agencies such as the Army Corps of Engineers in adapting to climate change

Acknowledgements Assistance Throughout Research o Laura Iraci o Emma Yates o Max Loewenstein Funding and Support o NASA’s Undergraduate Student Research Program o Maria Lopez Contributors o Ann Clarke o Don Chuck o T. Mark Hightower o Cristina Milesi o Phil Snyder o John West o Ken Steinitz

San Francisco Bay Tide Gauge Record Mean sea level increased 2.01 mm / year Strong El Niños cause local sea level spikes Source: NOAA

El Niño/ Southern Oscillation’s (ENSO) Impact Type 1 El Niño o 6 of 8 Type 1 El Niños had higher than normal precipitation o Average 37% more precipitation than mean monthly totals. El Niño associated with wetter winters in CA. Flooding is not limited to El Niño years. o Jan and Mar 1995 o Winter of 1996/97

Type 1 El Nino

Flood Parameters Comparison

Winter Precipitation Totals [Data Gap]