+ Identifying and Exploring Opportunities

+ Marshmallow Challenge Build the Tallest Freestanding Structure: The winning team is the one that has the tallest structure measured from the table top surface to the top of the marshmallow. That means the structure cannot be suspended from a higher structure, like a chair, ceiling or chandelier. The Entire Marshmallow Must be on Top: The entire marshmallow needs to be on the top of the structure. Cutting or eating part of the marshmallow disqualifies the team. Use as Much or as Little of the Kit: The team can use as many or as few of the 20 spaghetti sticks, as much or as little of the string or tape. The team cannot use the paper bag as part of their structure. Break up the Spaghetti, String or Tape: Teams are free to break the spaghetti, cut up the tape and string to create new structures. The Challenge Lasts 18 minutes: Teams cannot hold on to the structure when the time runs out. Those touching or supporting the structure at the end of the exercise will be disqualified.

+ Let’s Talk About It!

+ Today’s Agenda I. Introductions II. Defining and Understanding the Problem III. Understanding an Opportunity IV. Utilizing Scenario Analysis to Prioritize Opportunities

+ Defining and Understanding the Problem

+ Understanding Social Problems Stating Problems as Solutions The “more” problem Lack of resources Challenges with this approach Paradigms Myopia Maintains Status quo

+ Problem Analysis First activity of a planning process Strategic planning situational analysis Understanding the problem An assumption free look

+ Problems and Standards Using a standard to define a problem Federal poverty line Trend statistics Social judgments Will vary group to group All judgments should be considered

+ Defining the Need NormativePerceived ExpressedRelative Need

+ Normative Need Established by custom, authority, or general consensus Data source Secondary (existing surveys) National statistics, similar areas Mapping

+ Perceived Need What people think or feel Programs can be responsive Standard fluctuates Data source First Hand Accounts

+ Expressed Need Demand oriented Economics approach Data source Existing Organizations Client Stats

+ Relative Need Concerned with equity Gap between communities Data source Objective statistics Client stats

+ Framework for Analysis What is the nature of the situation? How are the terms defined? What are the characteristics of those experiencing the condition? What is the scale? What social values are being threatened? How widely is the condition recognized? Who defines the condition as a problem? What is the cause of the problem? Are there ethnic or gender considerations?

+ Your Turn!! Work through each of the nine questions. You will not have all the information you need, make note of additional information necessary to answer your questions. Give yourself the right to be wrong!!!

+ Understanding an Opportunity 16

+ Role of opportunities Opportunities = unmet needs or underutilized resources Alertness (Kirzner) Information asymmetry Prior knowledge Social networks Monitoring (Drucker) 7 sources of innovative opportunity Opportunity creation (Sarasvathy) 17

Types of opportunities Unidentified Value Sought Identified Unidentified Value Creation Capability Ardichivili et al., (2003) Identified DreamsProblem Solving Technology Transfer Business Formation 18

+ Drucker’s 7 opportunity sources The Unexpected The Incongruity Process Need Industry and Market Structure Demographics Change in Perception New Knowledge (The Bright Idea) 19

+ Opportunity assessment Social Value Potential Strategic fit? Achievable outcomes? Value added partnerships? Organizational benefit/Community perception Market potential User need User desire Funder interest Market share 20

+ Opportunity assessment (cont.) Sustainability potential Idea and start-up financial resources Human resource capability Organizational capacity Income potential Funder interests 21

+ The Five Forces Model Supplier Power Donor Power Competitive Rivalry Threat of Substitution Service Provider Power

+ Your Turn!! Use the five forces worksheet to assess your environment for potential opportunities. If you have an existing program, use this as an opportunity to reassess.

+ Using Scenario Analysis to Prioritize Opportunities

+ Stages Define the problem Assess the Forces Separate Risks and Uncertainties Build Multiple Scenarios Use Scenarios in Future Business Plan

+ Separate Risks and Uncertainties Risks Calculable outcomes Develop contingencies Uncertainties The liability of being new Build flexibility into the model Anticipate the unknown (what-if)

+ Sources of Uncertainty Social Values New Models Power Structures Environmental turbulance

+ Your Turn!! Use the worksheet to develop opportunity scenarios. Include even the “unlikely” scenarios, good and bad. The Devil is in the details so don’t short yourself with cursory scenarios.