Hale & Tempest The Global Pharmaceutical Industry (MNC & Generic) in Transition Dr. Brian W Tempest The Global Generic Summit – Barcelona, Spain 5 th March 2009

Hale & Tempest Healthcare pressures out to 2050

Hale & Tempest GDP Decline & Economic Melt Down

Hale & Tempest Public Health Reform Continues

Hale & Tempest Rising R&D Budgets

Hale & Tempest Big Pharma Sales Cocentration

Hale & Tempest But the Product Pipeline..

Hale & Tempest Mergers Don’t Produce Synergy

Hale & Tempest Sources: AXA Framlington Company Expiry 2010 Expiry 2012 Expiry 2011 PfizerAricept - $800mLipitor - $12.1bn Xalatan - $1.6bn Viagra - $1.7bn Detrol - $860m Geodon - $1.1bn Astra ZenecaArimidex - $2.2bnSeroquel - $4.7bnSymbicort - $3.7bn Sanofi-AventisTaxotere - $2bnUS Plavix - $3.8bn Avapro - $2.1bn Lovenox - $3.1bn BMSUS Plavix - $4.8bn Avapro - $1.3bn Abilify - $2.1bn GSKAdvair - $3.8bnAvandia - $2.5bn Patent Expiry Dates 41% 38% 34% 30% 23% % at Risk

Hale & Tempest USA New Brand Products

Hale & Tempest Sector Enquiry – R&D expenses

Hale & Tempest 45,000 Pharma Jobs

Hale & Tempest double digit growth to single growth focus on 7 developed markets to 7 emerging markets primary care to specialists, small molecules to biotech EU Sector Enquiry a slump in R&D innovation - the next 5 years being similar $84b patent expiries in 2010, 2011, out of 18 top companies have announced restructuring Big Pharma in Transition

Hale & Tempest Sources: 1.IMS Midas, March Earth Trend Data Tables % of the World population accounts for only 12% of the Global Pharma sales RegionPharma SalesPopulation North America Europe Japan $255 b 47% $158 b 30% $59 b 11% 332 5% % 128 2% Asia/Africa/Aus Latam 88% $41 b 8% $20 b 4% 18% % 558 9% 12% 82% Worldwide$533 b 100% %

Hale & Tempest Generic Industry Consolidation

Hale & Tempest The Asian Race to Prosperity

Hale & Tempest Indian Healthcare’s 1987 Companies

Hale & Tempest The Education Advantage

Hale & Tempest India – USA Expansion

Hale & Tempest Chinese Healthcare 3751 Companies

Hale & Tempest China Global Generic Companies

Hale & Tempest Japan - Generics supported by Gov

Hale & Tempest Competition is rising, India feels confidant and strong A number of major European Generic Companies for sale Focus in the hospital Injectables sector First Chinese ANDA Branded-Generic FTC deals are growing M&A – 5 big pharma evaluating generic targets Indian Manufacturing units to double from 2000 to 2010 Generic Companies in Transition

Hale & Tempest % Share of Global Growth – IMS

Hale & Tempest Sources: Goldman Sachs 2007 Top 5 Global Pharma Markets 2020 RankCountrySize USA China Japan France India $ 475b $ 125b $ 61b $ 51b $ 43b

Hale & Tempest Germany – Payers Contracting

Hale & Tempest Number of Almus Suppliers

Hale & Tempest USA – A New President

Hale & Tempest A New World Order

Hale & Tempest KSR vs. Teleflex USA Supreme Court decision USA Bilateral FTAs amended –Columbia, Peru, Panama Compulsory Licensing by Thailand, Canada under WTO German reimbursement review, UK PPRS, Poland, Hungary FDA setting up offices in China, India, ME, SA, EU Brazil generics booming, Japan generics rising Impact of wholesaler brands and pharmacy chains West Europe vs. Central/East Europe vs. South Europe Pharma Markets in Transition

Hale & Tempest In this Era of Transition & Change for Big Pharma, Generics & Markets there is a Serious Search for Profitable Sectors and Profitable Competitive Strategies

Hale & Tempest The Tempest Crystal Ball India will continue to be a Key Driver in the Global Generic Industry Competition is rising – Post TRIPs Indian companies will evolve Discovery companies will continue to be attracted to India for CT, EDC, MO. China will be perceived to be stronger in biology/ tox IP changes in US, EU & Developing World will slowly favor Generics Alliances between Western Biotech and Asians companies will expand. M&A PE deals will grow How to use Asia will become the key opportunity

Hale & Tempest Thank You