A Lower 48 Review Tight oil: past, present, future Benjamin Shattuck Strategy with substance www.woodmac.com.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Adapting to a Changing Energy Environment Russ Girling, President and CEO, TransCanada Corporation May 15, 2012 STRIKING A BALANCE IN THE MIDST OF CHANGE.
Advertisements

July 18, 2008, Atlas Copco Group Q2 Results July 18, 2008.
Hedge fund flows on pace to nearly double 2012
2015 Texas Economic Outlook: Tapping on the Brakes Keith Phillips Sr. Economist and Research Officer The views expressed in this presentation are strictly.
Q Results. 2 Disclaimer This presentation does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, any offer for sale of, or solicitation.
American Petroleum Institute Energy Community in Depth December 3, 2014.
© 2009 Investment Technology Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Not to be reproduced or retransmitted without permission. Broker-dealer products and services.
© 2011 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The World’s 500 Largest Asset Managers The P&I/Towers Watson global 500 ranking is prepared using joint research.
This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner.
A Reliance Capital company Portfolio Management Services Scheme Details.
ENERGIZING AMERICA: THE ROLE OF OIL AND NATURAL GAS IN AMERICA’S ENERGY FUTURE Rayola Dougher API Senior Economic Advisor,
Alliance Trust PLC Energy strategy James Twyman Global Energy Specialist 1 May 2014.
WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
Crude oil markets: outlook to 2020
Delivering commercial insight to the global energy industry Wood MackenzieEnergy Oil in Sudan and Potential Revenues to GOSS Stewart Williams.
ETF Sales & Trading Toronto | Montreal | Exchange Traded Funds Structure and Market Making September 2014.
Asset Acquisition Overview US Refined Fuel Distribution November 5, 2009 – Conference Call.
Current and Emerging Trends in the Gulf of Mexico Andrew Slaughter, Vice-President, Energy Insight 2013 UK Trade and Investment Breakfast at Offshore Technology.
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Positioning for Growth Tasmanian Strata Industry Tim MacKenzie Associate Director Friday 9 th August.
S IMMONS & C OMPANY INTERNATIONAL Crude Oil: The Forgotten Factor in Domestic E&P? IPAA Mid-Year Meeting St. Francis Hotel – San Francisco June 16, 2005.
Kevin M. Wilson, PhD Chairman/CEO 1405 Medical Arts Building 324 W. Superior Street Duluth, MN Office: Toll Free: Fax:
Mike Zenker Barclays Capital Research (415) November 12, 2007
Kevin M. Wilson, PhD Chairman/CEO 1405 Medical Arts Building 324 W. Superior Street Duluth, MN Office: Toll Free: Fax:
THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.
World Energy Outlook Strategic Challenges Hideshi Emoto Senior Energy Analyst International Energy Agency.
The Rise of National Oil Companies and Peak Oil Amy Myers Jaffe James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University February 14, 2008.
0 © 2013, Investment Consulting Associates Real estate is a strategic asset. Each and every new location decision carries cost, workforce, and other implications.
Canadian Oil Sands: Opportunities and Challenges November 3, 2010.
Equity income: a niche asset class Neil Margolis, Portfolio Manager May 2007.
Canada’s Energy Futures 2011: Shifting Trends Preview of Key Results & Comparison with Past Projections Abha Bhargava Matthew Hansen Bryce VanSluys 30.
© OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights Pawel Olejarnik Research Analyst International Energy Agency.
32nd USAEE/IAEE North American Conference July 30, 2013 Analysis of the Impacts of Shale Gas Supply under a CO2 Tax Scenario NETL Pittsburgh PA and Morgantown.
1 -Classification: Internal Statoil’s Unconventional Strategy/Portfolio Business opportunities with unconventionals London 20 September 2011.
© OECD/IEA Mtoe Other renewables Hydro Nuclear Biomass Gas.
National Holding & Emirates International Investment Company Charting a Sustainable Roadmap with Strategic Partnerships.
Delivering commercial insight to the global energy industry Wood MackenzieEnergy Natural Gas Markets Enter an Era of Unprecedented Uncertainty.
Delivering commercial insight to the global energy industry Wood MackenzieEnergy Rockies Development Activity and Trends IPAMS – May 2007.
Prudential Balanced Fund (PRUBF1) November 2011 Fixed information Licensed Date: 5 October 2006 Listing date: 4 December 2006 Base Currency: VND Tenure:
Arihant Financial Services Tejas Shah
Mine 2011 The game has changed Jason Burkitt Mine Africa 26 September
January 25, 2007 The Role of Speculation in Energy Markets Kyle Dickard Managing Director, Global Commodity Analysis.
IOGCC 2003 Outlook for Natural Gas & Petroleum Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration IOGCC Conference Williamsburg, Virginia May 19,
Place Client Logo Here Oil Market Outlook Paul Horsnell Head of Commodities Research, Barclays Capital Intertanko Singapore Tanker Event 30 March 2006.
Ability of California to attract gasoline volumes from other markets December 2015 Trusted commercial intelligence
The Oil Slump: It’s Not Just About Supply 08 April 2015 Trusted commercial intelligence
1 Beyond the Low Interest Rate Environment INSURANCE SUMMIT 2016 Presented by: Dan Byrnes, CFA Principal & Senior Portfolio Manager AAM - Insurance Investment.
Global Artificial Lift System Market (Lift Components, Types and Geography) - Size, Share, Global Trends, Company Profiles, Demand, Insights, Analysis,
World Offshore Maintenance, Modifications & Operations Market Forecast World Offshore Maintenance, Modifications & Operations Market Forecast.
Global Waste Recycling Services Market Share, Global Trends, Analysis, Research, Report, Opportunities, Segmentation and.
ГММ -1( а ) Li Jianfei. By 2040, the world and, in particular, countries which have large and technologically advanced economies – such as the USA,
© 2016 Global Market Insights, Inc. USA. All Rights Reserved Global Flow Chemistry Market to reach $2bn by 2024: Global Market Insights.
RUSSELL DEW FINANCIAL SERVICES
World Energy and Environmental Outlook to 2030
Shaping oil and gas for a competitive future
Senior Research Consultant, NEPC
Southern MDB Water Market Update
BALSA WOOD MARKET 2018 Industry Survey, Growth, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023 PREPARED BY Market Research Future (Part of Wantstats Research.
Under-rated assets in an over-priced world
Worldwide Escalator Market Share, Size, Future Demand, Business Prospects, Leading Players, Analysis, 2021 Industry Survey, Growth, Competitive Landscape.
Ceiling Tiles Market Report - Forecast to 2023 Industry Survey, Growth, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023 PREPARED BY Market Research Future.
Organic Pigments Market 2018 Global Industry Size, Demand, Growth Analysis, Share, Revenue, Manufacturers and Forecast 2023 PREPARED BY Market Research.
POLYURETHANE MARKET 2018 Industry Size, Share, Growth, Trends, Key Players Forecast 2023 PREPARED BY Market Research Future (Part of Wantstats Research.
Bonded Abrasives Market 2019 Global Leading Growth Drivers, Emerging Audience, Current Status by Major Key vendors and Trends by Forecast to 2023 PREPARED.
Dynamic Glazing Market Global Industry Share Focus on Company Profile, Top Manufactures Analysis and Opportunity Assessment PREPARED BY Market Research.
BALSA WOOD MARKET 2018 Industry Survey, Growth, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023 PREPARED BY Market Research Future (Part of Wantstats Research.
Dynamic Glazing Market Global Industry Share Focus on Company Profile, Top Manufactures Analysis and Opportunity Assessment PREPARED BY Market Research.
Sterilant Market 2019 Consumption Analysis, Business Overview and Upcoming Trends Forecast by 2023 PREPARED BY Market Research Future (Part of Wantstats.
Balsa Wood Market Global Industry Perspective, Comprehensive Analysis And Forecast 2019 – 2023 PREPARED BY Market Research Future (Part of Wantstats Research.
© 2018 Global Market Insights, Inc. USA. All Rights Reserved Digital Oilfield Market Growth | Trends Analysis Report 2025.
Presentation transcript:

A Lower 48 Review Tight oil: past, present, future Benjamin Shattuck Strategy with substance

Trusted commercial intelligence 2 North America’s major growth plays

Trusted commercial intelligence 3 *Capital Spend is the net investment in new projects (nominal terms). It does not include investment in fields which are already onstream or newfield developments that fall under tax ring fences which are already onstream. Therefore the capital spend is less than total corporate capital spend and the average IRR may not reflect the full economic picture. Data for all Corporate Service companies. Source: Wood Mackenzie Capital flowing into tight oil, boosting returns Huge resource, superior returns and good visibility to investors Development spend by resource themeGreenfield project IRR Increasing spend Declining spend

Trusted commercial intelligence 4 How much is being spent on US Tight Oil? US spend and breakout by top plays

Trusted commercial intelligence 5 A retrenchment to core plays is inevitable - over the past three years, the largest US plays have become even more important Reserve upgrades in the top 30 plays have been substantial Lower 48 Commercial Reserves Source: Wood Mackenzie NACPAT

Trusted commercial intelligence 6 North America production outlook Oil supply growing by ~6 million b/d from

Trusted commercial intelligence 7 Value and returns concentrated in top sub-plays Value concentrated in 10 sub-plays  Over 25% of the Lower 48’s remaining NPV10 lies across just 10 sub-plays, four of which lie in the Eagle Ford.  Acreage from these 10 sub-plays only accounts for roughly 5% of total leased acreage in the U.S. Per-well NPV10 and well costs  Parshall-Sanish provides a similar NPV10 to the Utica’s Southern Wet Gas, lower well costs  Karnes Trough has the cheapest wells amongst sub-plays with the highest per-well NPV10

Trusted commercial intelligence 8 Bakken IP heat map Max month rates from the Bakken core drive value

Trusted commercial intelligence 9 Eagle Ford IP heat map Operators target the ‘Goldilocks Zone’ for high IP rates with high liquids yield

Trusted commercial intelligence 10 Type well IRRs and remaining resource by US oil sub-play Source: Wood Mackenzie Sub-plays representing more than half of the remaining resource generate 30% plus rates of return under our base-case scenario US tight oil: core of the core delivers returns

Trusted commercial intelligence 11 Tight Oil doubles L48 production by 2020 “Big 3” add almost 2 mmbbl/d by 2020 Smaller plays still add more than 500,000 b/d by 2020 Eagle Ford and Bakken drive liquids growth  Eagle Ford liquids set to grow 47% over next five years  Unconventionals will produce half of the Lower 48’s 12 mmbbl/d of liquids by 2020 Lower 48 production

Trusted commercial intelligence 12 What’s emerging: the current shift is to Unconventional 3.0 – exploiting underexplored rock volume using 1.0 and 2.0 techniques Smaller niche plays and the redevelopment of existing fields 2013 Rig Count2014 Rig Count Source: Wood Mackenzie, Baker Hughes

Trusted commercial intelligence 13 Which North American play types are the highest cost? Future oil sands mining projects and the fringes of unconventional plays potentially offer big rewards, but are under threat if oil prices fall further North American breakevens by play and theme Source: Wood Mackenzie, note US Deepwater excludes Lower Tertiary

Trusted commercial intelligence 14 Tight oil supply and oil prices Source: Wood Mackenzie Supply growth sensitive below US$80/bbl

© Wood Mackenzie 15 Disclaimer  This report has been prepared for IPAA by Wood Mackenzie Limited. The report is intended solely for its benefit and these contents and conclusions are confidential and may not be disclosed to any other persons or companies without Wood Mackenzie’s prior written permission.  The information upon which this report is based has either been supplied to us by the client or comes from our own experience, knowledge and databases. The opinions expressed in this report are those of Wood Mackenzie. They have been arrived at following careful consideration and enquiry but we do not guarantee their fairness, completeness or accuracy. The opinions, as of this date, are subject to change. We do not accept any liability for your reliance upon them.  Strictly Private & Confidential

© Wood Mackenzie 16 Europe Americas Asia Pacific Website Wood Mackenzie* is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insight they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: *WOOD MACKENZIE is a Registered Trade Mark of Wood Mackenzie Limited