WMO SDS-WAS Research and Development activities 7th meeting of the WWRP JSC (WMO Headquarters, Geneva, November 2014) S. Nickovic (Ex-WMO SDS-WAS, Serbia) E. Cuevas, SDS-WAS NAMEE (AEMET, Spain) E. Terradellas SDS-WAS NAMEE (AEMET, Spain) J.M. Baldasano, SDS-WAS NAMEE (BSC-CNS, Spain) M. Mikami, SDS-WAS A (MRI/JMA, Japan) W. Sprigg, SDS-WAS PAC (University of Arizona, USA) WMO; AREP

2 SDS-WAS Mission To enhance the ability of countries to deliver timely and quality sand and dust storm forecasts, observations, information and knowledge to users through an international partnership in research and operations

test footer 3 Publications/year on dust-related subjects (Stout et al, 2008) Increasing interest for dust research

4 SDS-WAS regional structure

SDS-WAS Science and Implementation Plan  Final draft ready for SSC7 consideration  Membership in the SDS-WAS Steering Committee specified  SDS-WAS Trust Fund requested to support global coordination  Updated research plan

SDS-WAS Science and Implementation Plan (2)  Limitations  Lack of observation data, especially in dust source areas  Lack of computer resources for hi-res modelling  Transition to operational activities  proposed procedure for designation of a Regional Specialized Meteorological Center with specialization on Atmospheric Sand and Dust Forecasting (RSMC-ASDF)  Spain became the first designated RSMC-ASDF  Asian countries show interest to host the Asian RSMC- ASDF

CASCBS Research SDS-WAS Operational forecasts SDS-WAS Experimental forecasts Current Future Research From Research to Operations

Research issues  Hi-res modelling  Observation improvements  Data assimilation  Model validation/intercomparison  Direct and indirect effects  Mineralogy  Dust impacts 8

SDS-WAS research projects/studies research/SDS-WAS-studieshttp://sds-was.aemet.es/projects- research/SDS-WAS-studies test footer 9

PROJECT: Tehran 2014 haboob case – high resolution modelling contact Goran  In-depth case study of the small-scale extreme dust storm occurred in Tehran on 2 June 2014 lasting less than 2 hours test footer 10

 Dust storm caused several deaths, reduction of visibility to several tenths meters in the city, and adverse disturbance of the public traffic.  All SDS-WAS inter-compared models failed to predict the storm  NAMEE RSG recently proposed a study, exploring if  model downscaling  more detailed source specification could improve forecasts test footer 11

Groups to participate:  Modelling  EMA, Egypt  BSC, Spain  HMS, Serbia  MetOffice, UK  NCEP, USA  GFDL, USA  U of Leipzig ?  Observations  IRIMO, Iran  Env Agency, Iran  Analysis  AEMET, Spain  U of Belgrade, Serbia  … test footer 12

SDS-WAS models forecasts (12UTC 2 June 2014) test footer 13 ×× × ×× × ×× ×

Preliminary simulation results (Pejanovic et al, 2014) test footer 14 ××× Tehran location Time of haboob 12:30UTC

PROJECT: Dust model evaluation against lidar data contact Ioannis Binietoglou  Ability of models to reproduce vertical dust distribution of dust never systematically evaluated  lidars co-located with photometers using the LIRIC algorithm  Period January 2011 – June 2013  No. cases 69  No. stations 10  No. models 4 test footer 15

Participating models  BSC-DREAM8bV2 (BSC, Barcelona)  NMMB/BSC-Dust (BSC, Barcelona)  DREAMABOL (ISAC-CNR, Bologna)  DREAM8-NMME-MACC (Serbian HM Service) test footer 16

Participating stations  10 EARLINET / AERONET test footer 17

Parameters examined:  Center of mass  Dust load (vertically integrated)  Peak (maximum) value  Article in preparation test footer 18

Center of mass test footer 19 Average profiles

PROJECT: Forecasting a North African dust outbreak towards Europe Contact: Nicolás Huneeus  Assessing prediction capabilities of intense Saharan dust outbreak over Western Europe and Scandinavia between 5-11 April 2011  Comparing models against observations  aerosol optical depth (AERONET and MODIS)  Aerosol vertical profiles (CALIPSO)  dust surface concentration (AQ stations)  10-m winds and vertical wind profiles (SYNOP, TEMP) test footer 20

 24, 48 and 72 hour forecasts  Models  BSC-DREAM8b (BSC; regional)  NMMB/BSC-Dust (BSC; regional)  DREAM8-NMME-MACC (Serbian HM Service)  Met-UMTM (UK Met Office; global)  MACC-II (ECMWF; global) test footer 21

AERONET (orange), surface concentration (red), surface wind (green) and radio-sounding (brown) stations used in the study test footer 22

test footer 24 Article to be submitted: Forecasting the North African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison N. Huneeus, S. Basart, S. Fiedler, J.-J. Morcrette, J. Mulcahy, E. Terradellas, C. Pérez, G. Pejanovic, P. Arsenovic, S., M. Schulz, J.M. Baldasano, A. Benedetti, E. Cuevas, J. Pey, S. Nickovic

Dust Mineralogy –new databases test footer 25 Nickovic et al, 2012Journet al, 2014 Importance of dust mineral composition for radiation, dust-cloud interactions, health

 Book: Mineral Dust - A key player in the Earth system, edited by Peter Knippertz and Jan- Berend W. Stuut, 2014,Springer. test footer 26

SDS-WAS Nodes test footer 27

Regional Steering Groups (RSG) Asian Node  Chair: Masao MIKAMI (MRI/JMA, Japan), Co Chairs: Xiao-Ye ZHANG (CMA, China), Eunha LIM (NIMR/KMA, Korea) NAMEE Node  Chair: Slobodan Nickovic (HM Service, Serbia) Pan American Node  Chair: William Sprigg (U of Arizona, US)

Nodes Status  Asymmetric developments  NAMEE most active and developed  PA with good potential but not yet well established  Asian Node – most of the research (modelling and observation) facilities available – still more coordination needed 29

Management issues  Implementation Plan finalized – to be approved in this meeting  Regional Node activities – self-funded  SDS-WAS Trust Fund to be established (Secretariat assistance n needed)  Steering Committee (SC) to be established for SDS-WAS global coordination 30

test footer 31 Contributions from the SDS-WAS Nodes

SDS-WAS NAMEE Node test footer 32

Web portalArchive OBSERVATION Monthly plots of PM10/PM2.5 Daily back-trajectories EUMETSAT RGB-DUST images UKMO MSG retrievals OBSERVATION Monthly plots of PM10/PM2.5 Daily back-trajectories EUMETSAT RGB-DUST images UKMO MSG retrievals PREDICTION Numerical model forecasts Joint visualization of forecast Surf. Concentration Joint visualization of forecast DOD 550 Monthly-averaged maps Multi-model products Guidance for forecasters PREDICTION Numerical model forecasts Joint visualization of forecast Surf. Concentration Joint visualization of forecast DOD 550 Monthly-averaged maps Multi-model products Guidance for forecasters FORECAST EVALUATION NRT evaluation with AERONET. Monthly plots Evaluation with AERONET (monthly, seasonal, annual scores) Evaluation with MODIS Evaluation with MODIS deepblue FORECAST EVALUATION NRT evaluation with AERONET. Monthly plots Evaluation with AERONET (monthly, seasonal, annual scores) Evaluation with MODIS Evaluation with MODIS deepblue

April 2014 Models intercomparisonDownload statistics MODELDOWNLOADS BSC-DREAM8b313 MACC172 DREAM-NMME- MACC 98 NMMB/BSC-Dust155 GEOS-585 NGAC84 MEDIAN80 TOTAL987 Users233

Observation SDS-Africa: new AERONET stations Available since Feb 2012 Available since Jun 2013

8-12 Dec 2013: 3rd Training Course on WMO SDS-WAS products. Muscat, Oman Dec 2013: McIDAS-V Tutorial with focus on atmospheric dust cases. Muscat, Oman Oct 2013: Workshop on Meteorology, Sand and Dust Storm, Combating Desertification and Erosion. Istanbul, Turkey Capacity building Jun 2013: Training Course on the use of satellite products for agro- meteorological applications, Accra, Ghana

Capacity building May 2014: Cours sur l’utilisation des produits satellitaires aux applications agrometeorologiques, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

Operational forecasts Jakarta, Sep 2012: The CBS recommends designation of the consortium AEMET/BSC-CNS to host the first RSMC with specialization on sand and dust forecast Geneva, Jun 2013: The WMO EC meets the recommendation and designates the consortium to host the RSMC-ASDF for NA-ME-E Barcelona, Mar 2014: The Barcelona Dust Forecast Center starts operations dust.aemet.es

SDS-WAS Asian Node test footer 39

Current status of the SDS-WAS Asian node  In July 2014, several RSG members were replaced with new members  Basic communication within RSG is secured.  Establishing RSMC-ADSF will be discussed in the next 2015 RSG meeting  In 2012 (Tsukuba) is agreed to keep working groups activities – to be reinforced 40

RSG Working groups  Data Share (responsible to KMA)  Common Portal Site (responsible to CMA)  Model Inter-comparison (responsible to JMA)

Issue to be discussed in the next Asian RSG meeting  Designation of a Regional Specialized Meteorological Center with specialization on Atmospheric Sand and Dust Forecasting (RSMC-ASDF)  At least two countries show the interest  Transition from research (SDS-WAS) to operational activities (RSMC-ASDF) is now proposed in the Science and IP with conditions and procedures needed to be followed  Common action of CAS and CBS bodies needed 42

SDS-WAS Pan American Node test footer 43

Pan-American Centre  Moving the Node Center hosting from the Chapman University to University of Arizona  Petitioning the University and Board of Regents for official approval to host the Pan-American Center (PAC)  Team  Atmospheric Sciences,  Hydrology,  Engineering  School of Public Health,  Office of Arid Lands,  College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, test footer 44

 Other institutions wishing to contribute hosting  Desert Research Institute  California Department of Public Health  California Public Health Institute  Possible solution: a coalition of hosts, capitalizing on the complementarity test footer 45

Serving Society Serving Society W.A.Sprigg - July 2014 Atmospheric Observations & Modeling NOAA/GFDL/NCEP NASA JPL & MSFC, Navy Surface Source Composition & Characteristics Mapping & Monitoring NASA, USGS Information Portal Public & Partner NOAA/NCDC WMO Sand/Dust Warning System GEONETCast Public Access Client Base Practitioner & Policy Maker Health, Air/Water Quality, Transportation, Agriculture National/State Health & AQ Offices Pan American Health Organization Valley Fever Center of Excellence Valley Fever Critical Sources EPA, USGS, USDA Climate Change Air Quality Assessments Simulations & Experimental Forecasts NOAA/NWS/NCEP USN/NRL NASA Earth Science University Research

Pan-America Centre Start-Up  Director  Web Page  Science Steering Group  Leadership Council  Maintain Compass Heading: Serving Science & the Public  Promote Objectives & Goals  Guide Policy t Communicate Science to the Public, assess priorities & Services for today & tomorrow  Coordinate North, Central and South American Participation in SDS-WAS  Forecasts & Simulations with models & satellite observations  Computing Center W.A.Sprigg - July 2014

Thank you