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Agenda Last time around – 1992 What’s different now Likely Scenarios Checklist for Recession Proofing

Last Time Around

Last Time Around Petrol prices soared Interest rates hit 15% Inflation hit 11% Business failures hit 1500 per week John Major took over as Chancellor House prices crashed

Last Time Around Bill Clinton became President Queen had a ‘annus horribilis’ Disneyland Paris opened

And … Food + Drink a key source of ‘affordable treats’ 80’s Premium Brands prospered Eating in became the new eating out Health and Indulgence core drivers for innovation But innovation dried up Businesses adopted Business as Usual Cut everything and lay low Spend More

What’s Different Now

Attitude to debt Younger generation have never been here Inflation + mortgage rates lower Second buy to let mortgages Spend on technical goods and services Comparative pricing

Voice of consumer amplified Information + Channel Clutter Retailer Brand price tiering Broader Foodservice offering with price tiering Different forces on consumer demand What’s Different Now

Likely Scenarios

Emergence of the ‘smart shopper’ Luxury on a budget Growth of the discounters Sacrificial consumption Likely Scenarios Selective Shopping – buy when need to avoid wastage Polarisation Premium or value propositions Engaging versus routine shopping Grocer versus all purpose retailer

Checklist for Recession Proofing

Brand Audit Offer clear, motivating, & differentiated proposition Demonstrate relevance Use technology Deliver on the hygiene factors: Transparency Fit for purpose Defend Brand equity Get the Basics Right

Reflects real consumer demand Based on real understanding Connects with core trends / drivers Embodies consumer value hierarchy; Consumer Value Audit Value Trade Off Analysis Reflects Category / Brand Engagement Ensure your innovation is insight driven

Cost Dissection / analysis to identify quick wins Add value – are you worth it and where’s the evidence Spend wisely – be ‘canny shoppers’ Consumers looking to avoid wastage Avoid ‘unnecessary’ packaging Consider promotional strategies Save but then spend and don’t be wasteful

Cost Dissection / analysis to identify quick wins Add value – are you worth it and where’s the evidence Spend wisely – be ‘canny shoppers’ Consumers looking to avoid wastage Avoid ‘unnecessary’ packaging Consider promotional strategies Save but then spend and don’t be wasteful

Focus – de clutter and prosper Pick your winners and get behind them Be prepared to kill Do fewer things better

Develop competitive barriers ‘Break from the pack’ Watch your competition – are you fighting for dwindling spend Take initiatives Anticipate Defend your space Be Alert

Who - Identify high value consumers Where - Channels that offer opportunity for premiumisation When - Make it a quality occasion Why - Build ideas around platforms for premiumisation Pick your targets

Reasons to embrace With no appreciating property values to brag about, smug dinner parties will fall blissfully silent In restaurants it will be considered prudent, and not the behaviour of a tightwad oik, to order the house red You will stop having £50 facials and realise your skin looks exactly the same Property porn programmes such as Location Location Location may die a swift death

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