Science to Support Management Decisions Related to Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico and Water Quality in the Mississippi River Basin Herb Buxton, US Geological Survey A Workshop:

Task Force Organization Task Force Coordinating Committee (Implementation) –Finance/Budget Workgroup –Monitoring, Modeling and Research Workgroup –Management Response Workgroup Point Sources Non Point Sources Restoration

Workshop Objective Develop a Monitoring, Modeling and Research (Science) Strategy in Support of the Task Force Action Plan.

The Science Strategy A strategy to provide and maintain the scientific information needed to implement the adaptive management framework defined in the Action Plan.

Management Implementation (Improved), Monitoring, Interpretation (including modeling), Periodic Reporting (including public education), and Research to improve knowledge and methods. Adaptive Management

Our Tasks Review the Management Questions. Compile information on existing activities that contribute to essential monitoring, modeling and research activities; Identify information gaps and the activities needed to fill those gaps; and Identify coordination mechanisms to assure that information is gathered and delivered to support decision-making.

Management Questions THE WATERSHED What are the major sources and causes of excess nutrients within the Mississippi River Basin?

Management Questions THE GULF How are Gulf hypoxia and the associated adverse effects exacerbated by specific causal factors and what are the determining mechanisms?

Management Questions SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC What are the social and economic impacts of deterioration in water quality (nutrients) in the Mississippi Basin and increased hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico?

Guiding Principles Adaptive Management. Design monitoring to serve sub-basin management implementation strategies. Make maximum use of all ongoing activities.

Guiding Principles Take a comprehensive Management approach that utilizes all contributing mitigating factors. Farm N Management Davis Pond Diversion Reduce PS Discharges Wetland Rest. Navigation

Guiding Principles Consider all potential causal and mitigating factors. Reduce uncertainties in measurements of adverse effects, causal factors, and underlying processes. Design monitoring activities to support modeling and other planned interpretations.

Guiding Principles Modeling should extrapolate monitoring at representative sites across the Basin. Periodic interpretations and reporting. INPUT YIELD INPUT YIELD

Guiding Principles Adopt a policy of broad information dissemination. Assure that data and information are consistent and reliable (Quality Assurance). Peer Review.

Planning Groups 1.Watershed Monitoring and Reporting (Joe Engeln, MO DNR) 2.Watershed Modeling and Research (Rich Alexander, USGS) 3.Watershed Social and Economic Issues (Marc Ribaudo, USDA)

Planning Groups 4.Gulf Monitoring and Reporting (Rex Herron, NOAA) 5.Gulf Modeling and Research (Kenric Osgood, NOAA) 6.Gulf Social and Economic Issues (Rita Curtis, NOAA)

Workshop Agenda Plenary Session 6 Sessions (Planning Groups) 2 Sessions (Watershed and Gulf) 6 Sessions (Planning Groups) 2 Sessions (Watershed and Gulf) Plenary Session Writing Team Day 1 Day 2 Day 3

Workshop Steering Committee Wayne Anderson (MN PCA) Dale Bucks (USDA) Herb Buxton* (USGS) Joe Engeln (MO NRD) Dennis McKenna (IL DOA) Dugan Sabins (LA DEQ) Don Scavia* (NOAA) Chuck Spooner (USEPA) *Co-chairs

Workshop Follow-up Writing Team meets Friday to develop draft Science Strategy. Workshop progress presented at the Task Force Meeting (December 10 th, near Washington D.C.). See the WWW for workshop results:

What we do not expect to be doing? Interpreting or reinterpreting data. Evaluating contributions of various nutrient sources. Debating the relative importance of causal factors of Hypoxia. Discussing the best management actions to be taken.

What we expect to be doing? Designing a Strategy that: Best facilitates those activities. Is open to changes in approach dictated by new understanding. Identifies and addresses areas of greatest scientific uncertainty. Identifies areas of greatest resource needs.

Think Broadly! Think Incrementally! Take advantage of intersections disciplines!

Thank You!

January 2001 The Action Plan “ This plan describes an adaptive approach, based on implementation, monitoring, and research to address known problems, to clarify scientific uncertainties, and to evaluate the effectiveness of efforts to reduce hypoxia.” p. 3