Analysis of NARCCAP results in the Pacific Northwest… for decision-making in the upper Columbia Basin T.Q. Murdock, Climate Scientist, PCIC G. Burger, Climate Scientist, PCIC H. Eckstrand, GIS Analyst, PCIC J. Hiebert, Computing Support, PCIC 2011 NARCCAP User’s Meeting Boulder, Colorado, USA 08 APR 2011

Winter Climatology – NCEP2, CRU, RCM ensemble

Winter Climatology – NCEP, CRU, RCM ensemble

2050s change GCM vs. RCM

Change in extreme day of period

Projected 10 th /90 th percentiles

2050s projected 100-yr return period

Summary RCMs useful tools for decision making in areas of complex topography and steep climate gradients – Improvements from NCEP2 ~225 km (2.5⁰) to 50 km – Biases comparable to difference between observations Future (winter) projections – warmer, wetter, large changes to extreme temperatures Analysis of extremes underway  need ensemble with multiple RCMs driven by multiple GCMs

Data sources North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Project (NARCCAP ): winter season (Dec-Jan-Feb) NCEP-DEO AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2): M. Kanamitsu, W. Ebisuzaki, J. Woollen, S-K Yang, J.J. Hnilo, M. Fiorino, and G. L. Potter , Nov 2002, Bul. of the Atmos. Met. Soc. CRU TS2.1: interpolated station observations 50 km resolution: Mitchell and Jones, 2005: An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high- resolution grids. Int. J. Climatology, 25, , Doi: /joc Additional observations: Environment Canada climate stations, CANGRID, UDEL, NARR2m, VIC driving data

Acknowledgments Hailey Eckstrand – GIS wizard Seth McGinnis – NARCCAP support Gerd Burger & James Hiebert – Analysis of extremes Dave Bronaugh – GCM data Katrina Bennett – VIC historical dataset 13 Thank you Comments, questions, criticism: More info on PCIC: