Which factors forecast most accurately which of the nominees will win Best Picture? Total Revenue (adjusted) Total Budget (adjusted) Running Time Director.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

 Hollywood Movies as a form of American Culture A look at two examples: Dances with Wolves Lawrence of Arabia Dances American Culture & Society Spring-Summer.

Advertisements

Statistics and Quantitative Analysis U4320

The Studio System Hollywood’s Standardized Entertainment.

Visual effects have come a long way since Star Wars took home the first Academy Award for Best Visual Effects in A look at every Visual Effects.

Linear Regression Using Excel 2010 Linear Regression Using Excel ® 2010 Managerial Accounting Prepared by Diane Tanner University of North Florida Chapter.

What does it take to win? By: Anna Curtis Study: When it comes to the Oscars, do the chances of a movie or actor winning have anything to do with the year.

1 More Regression Information. 2 3 On the previous slide I have an Excel regression output. The example is the pizza sales we saw before. The first thing.

The Basics of Regression continued

Statistics 303 Chapter 10 Least Squares Regression Analysis.

Math 227 Elementary Statistics Math 227 Elementary Statistics Sullivan, 4 th ed.

The story of Hollywood.

Lecture 3-2 Summarizing Relationships among variables ©

1 Doing Statistics for Business Doing Statistics for Business Data, Inference, and Decision Making Marilyn K. Pelosi Theresa M. Sandifer Chapter 11 Regression.

This Presentation  The Academy Award for Best Picture  Looks for the best way to determine voters’ choice(s) among more than 2 options.  Introduce.

Which factors forecast most accurately which of the nominees will win Best Picture? Total Revenue (adjusted) Total Budget (adjusted) Running Time Director.

A Night at the Oscars The Oscars, awarded annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, showcase the best in movies, honoring films released.

You want to examine the linear dependency of the annual sales of produce stores on their size in square footage. Sample data for seven stores were obtained.

Grease vs The commitments  Year of release: 1978  Production company: paramount pictures  Director: Randal kisser  Writer: Jim Jacobs  Screenplay:

A Night at the Oscars The Oscars, awarded annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, showcase the best in movies, honoring films released.

Statistical Methods Statistical Methods Descriptive Inferential

A Night at the Oscars The Oscars, awarded annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, showcase the best movies, honoring films released.

Section 3.2 Part 1 Statistics. Correlation r The correlation measures the direction and the strength of the linear relationship between two quantitative.

Slide 8- 1 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Active Learning Lecture Slides For use with Classroom Response Systems Business Statistics First Edition.

Chapter 14 Inference for Regression AP Statistics 14.1 – Inference about the Model 14.2 – Predictions and Conditions.

Warm-up Ch.11 Inference for Linear Regression Day 2 1. Which of the following are true statements? I. By the Law of Large Numbers, the mean of a random.

1Spring 02 First Derivatives x y x y x y dy/dx = 0 dy/dx > 0dy/dx < 0.

Inference for Regression Chapter 14. Linear Regression We can use least squares regression to estimate the linear relationship between two quantitative.

The setting for Slumdog Millionaire is  A. Mexico City, Mexico  B. Delhi, India  C. Dhaka, Bangladesh  D. Mumbai, India.

© Copyright McGraw-Hill Correlation and Regression CHAPTER 10.

Aim: Review for Exam Tomorrow. Independent VS. Dependent Variable Response Variables (DV) measures an outcome of a study Explanatory Variables (IV) explains.

5 films produced/ distributed by Paramount Pictures 1 Shutter island; co-production with phoenix pictures Sikeila productions and apian way productions.

Copyright © 2013, 2009, and 2007, Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 12 Analyzing the Association Between Quantitative Variables: Regression Analysis Section.

By: Rymel Constantine.  A production company is accountable for the development of the film from the idea of the film straight to the end product. In.

Applied Quantitative Analysis and Practices LECTURE#25 By Dr. Osman Sadiq Paracha.

 Is there a correlation between an adult’s body mass index (BMI) and their systolic blood pressure…

As early as the 1910’s the US film industry began to shift its base from the east coast to what was essentially a place in the Californian desert on the.

Statistics Group 1 Elisabeth Brino Jamie Derbidge Slade Litten Kristen Kidder Jamie.

LESSON 6: REGRESSION 2/21/12 EDUC 502: Introduction to Statistics.

Lesson 14 - R Chapter 14 Review. Objectives Summarize the chapter Define the vocabulary used Complete all objectives Successfully answer any of the review.

A Night at the Oscars The Oscars, awarded annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, showcase the best in movies, honoring films released.

Awards Ceremony Name Venue, Date Awards Ceremony Name 2015 Awards Ceremony Logo Lead SponsorsEvent Partners.

Film as Literature: A New Section April 21. Agenda Review Introduce New Section Begin Film.

The Contrast of Different Films By: Jeremy Block.

CASEY DAVIS, GARRETT DAUCH, AND JASMINE COLEMAN A Passage to Hollywood.

The American Film Industry

Do MPAA Ratings Affect Revenues at the Box Office?

QUESTION 3 – EVALUATION WHAT KIND OF MEDIA INSTITUTION MIGHT DISTRIBUTE YOUR MEDIA PRODUCT AND WHY? The Hunt Joe Coquet.

Simple linear regression and correlation Regression analysis is the process of constructing a mathematical model or function that can be used to predict.

Film Studies: Genres.

GS/PPAL Section N Research Methods and Information Systems

BASIC ECONOMETRICS.

What Kind of Media Institution Might Distribute your Film

Movie review terminology

FILMS ARGUMENTS FOR FILMS.

Regression Analysis Part D Model Building

YEAR 10 DRAMA CELEBRATE THE OSCARS. YEAR 10 DRAMA CELEBRATE THE OSCARS.

The Film Industry.

Quantitative Data Analysis P6 M4

Correlation and Regression

Regression Computer Print Out

Warm-up: This table shows a person’s reported income and years of education for 10 participants. The correlation is .79. State the meaning of this correlation.

AP Statistics Section 3.2 Part 1 AP Statistics

Lecturer’s desk Projection Booth Screen Screen Harvill 150 renumbered

AP Statistics October 1st, 2010 Mr. Calise

15.1 The Role of Statistics in the Research Process

Chapter 14 Inference for Regression

Writing a Summary.

The Correlation between Relative Frequencies of Roman Numerals in Practice AP Questions and their Answers Joshua Smith.

Oscar Nominees: Which Films Provided Studios with the Best ROI

Presentation transcript:

Which factors forecast most accurately which of the nominees will win Best Picture? Total Revenue (adjusted) Total Budget (adjusted) Running Time Director Experience Source Material Studio Genre Release Date

Summary Statistics Winning Nominees MeanMinimumMaximumMedianStandard Deviation Revenue Budget Running Time Days released before ceremony

MeanMinimumMaximumMedianStandard Deviation Revenue Budget Running Time Days released before ceremony Losing Nominees Summary Statistics

P Values of Numerical Data at 95% Confidence VariableH0H0 H1H1 P Value Adjusted Revenue μ winners -μ losers =0 μ winners- μ losers > Adjusted Budget μ winners- μ losers =0 μ winners – μ losers > Days from Ceremony μ winners - μ losers = Running Time μ winners -μ losers = Hypothesis Testing

The Models VariableCoefficientsP-value Intercept Adjusted Revenue E Adjusted Budget E Days from release to award Running Time Experienced Director Comedy Drama Thriller True Story Original Major Studio I II VariableCoefficientsP-value Intercept Adjusted Revenue E Adjusted Budget E Days from release to award Running Time Experienced Director Comedy Drama Thriller Book Original th Century Fox Paramount Universal United Artists Columbia Warner Bros VariableCoefficientsP-value Intercept Running Time Experienced Director Thriller True Story R Squared F-Testn Model I Model II Model III III

Ŷ= x x x x x 1 = running time x 2 =experienced director (1,0) x 3 =Thriller (1,0) x 4 =True Story (1,0) Our Equation

Overall… Average ŷ Winners.358 Losers.242

Filmŷ Patton*.465 Airport.08 Five Easy Pieces.23 Love Story.23 M*A*S*H

Filmŷ Slumdog Millionaire.335 The Curious Case of Benjamin Button*.54 Frost/Nixon.04 Milk.0629 The Reader

Conclusions The strongest correlation we found in the variables we tested was a positive correlation between running time and Oscar Winnings We showed that the common assertion that films with release dates closer to the awards ceremony are more likely to win is likely a myth Overall, our model can only account for 11% of the variability in Data. You cannot quantitatively measure how “good” a movie is.

Credits Lead Excel Technician Warren Brown-Pounds Assistant Excel TechnicianBryce Gerard Data CollectionGrisel Zuniga Warren Brown- Pounds Bryce Gerard Regression AnalystsWarren Brown-Pounds Bryce Gerard Data Provided By imdb.com boxofficemojo.com PowerPoint DesignBryce GerardBased on an Idea byBryce Gerard Special Thanks to: Rajat Gupta