Proposal for a WWRP High Impact Weather Project Sarah Jones, Brian Golding Philippe Arbogast, Ana Barros, Aida Diongue, Beth Ebert, Grant Elliott, Pat Harr, Tim Hewson, Julia Keller, Stefan Klink, Sharan Majumdar, Rebecca Morss, Pierre Pellerin, David Richardson, Peter Steinle, Jenny Sun, Richard Swinbank, Zoltan Toth, Jian Jie Wang, Heini Wernli, Hui Yu THORPEX ICSC July 2013

Background WWRP THORPEX ends in 2014 WMO EC June 2012: Two new WWRP Projects – S2S: Subseasonal to Seasonal – PPP: Polar Prediction Project THORPEX ICSC October 2012: – Identified potential need for additional project What is missing? – High Impact Weather plays important role in S2S and PPP – But S2S does not cover issues related to improving predictions of High Impact Weather on minutes-to-weeks time scales – PPP focussed on specific geographical region Proposal for a 5-10 year WWRP High Impact Weather Project

Development of Proposal Brainstorming after ICSC-10, Initial proposal to ICSC North American Town Hall at AMS Annual Meeting January 2013 in Austin, TX, USA Initial international workshop to define scope & objectives March 2013 in Karlsruhe, Germany Appointment of task team Chair: Sarah Jones, WMO Consultant: Brian Golding May 2013, 21 Members representing 9 nations/ WWRP & THORPEX WGs First draft of outline proposal End of May 2013 Task Team Telecons to agree on structure and objectives June 2013 Submit draft of proposal to WMO for ICSC/JSC 9 July 2013 Discussion at ICSC / JSC; Agreement on way forward Revise proposal for submission to CAS in November

The overall objective of the High Impact Weather project is to: “Promote cooperative international research to achieve a dramatic increase in resilience to high impact weather, worldwide, through improving forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks and enhancing their communication and utility in social, economic and environmental applications” Mission of Project

Scope of Project Achieve a major advance in the ability of individuals, businesses and communities to reduce adverse weather impacts ● Improve understanding of factors influencing predictability of HIW ● Improve forecast accuracy, resolution and lead time of HIW forecasts ● Relate High Impact Weather forecasts to human impact, taking account of vulnerability ● Reduce impact of High Impact Weather by improving communication

Scope of Project Applications: Increase resilience of social, economic and environmental receptors Provide justification Determine key impacts Reap the benefits of research Research programme that responds to the needs of the users for specific weather-related applications

Scope of Project

Key research goal 1 Improve understanding of factors determining predictability during HIW

Research Theme: Predictability and Processes Predict- ability & Processes Analysis of processes Observations Diagnosis of model errors Improve understanding of factors determining predictability during High Impact Weather events

Aspects that are relevant to significant impacts –Address gaps in understanding of atmosphere, ocean and land surface processes relevant to HIW –Improve models, tools and forecast skill RG 1: Predictability and Processes NOAA Danish Met Office COPS THORPEX NOAA

Key research goal 2 Enhance multi-scale prediction of variables needed to forecast weather impacts Predict- ability & Processes

Research Theme: Multi-scale Prediction Enhance multi-scale prediction of variables needed to forecast weather impacts Predict- ability & Processes Multi- scale Forecasts Coupled Systems Minutes to weeks Local to Global

Improve predictions of atmosphere, ocean & land surface variables that cause weather-related impacts –Probabilistic predictions at scales relevant to hazards covering local to global scales and minutes to weeks –Using coupled ensemble prediction systems –Including novel observations via advanced data assimilation RG 2: Multi-scale Prediction NOAA ECMWF NOAA

Key research goal 3 Produce more relevant forecasts and warnings Predict- ability & Processes Multi- scale Forecasts

Research Theme: Vulnerability and Risk Produce more relevant forecasts and warnings Predict- ability & Processes Multi- scale Forecasts Assess impact of hazard on individuals, communities and businesses Learn about their vulnerability Quantify risk arising from hazard Vulner- ability & Risk

RG 3: Vulnerability & Risks Assess impacts of natural hazards on receptors – Modelling complete chain: source pathways receptors complex pathways involving natural & built environments – Characterise impact on receptors depending on their exposure and vulnerability Separate impacts on individuals, businesses & countries Incorporate ability of receptors to respond and recover Consider impacts of disasters on health and well-being NWS UNISDR

Key research goal 4 Identify deficits in / grow trust in forecasts and warnings Predict- ability & Processes Multi- scale Forecasts Vulner- ability & Risk

Research Theme: Evaluation Identify deficits in / grow trust in forecasts and warnings Predict- ability & Processes Multi- scale Forecasts Vulner- ability & Risk Rigorous evaluation of forecasts & warnings of hazards and their impacts Define how to measure benefits of research Eval- uation

RG 4: Evaluation Maximise utility of forecasts and warnings – Methods for evaluating probabilistic forecasts, especially for low-probability, high impact events – Present verification results appropriate for different users – Methods to evaluate impact of forecasts and warnings – Assess impact of evaluation results on risk forecasts NCEP NWS

Key research goal 5 Achieve more effective responses Predict- ability & Processes Multi- scale Forecasts Vulner- ability & Risk Eval- uation

Research Theme: Communication Achieve more effective responses Predict- ability & Processes Multi- scale Forecasts Vulner- ability & Risk Eval- uation Improve formulation and communication of forecasts & warnings Commu nication

RG 5: Communication Maximise response to available information – How to reach people at highest risk and ensure response – Paradigms describing response of receptor groups – Optimum sort of forecast/warning services, in dependence of hazard – Best format of information for different receptors DWD NHC UNISDR

Cross-cutting activities Vulner- ability & Risk Multi- scale Forecasts Eval- uation Commu nication Predict- ability & Processes Joint activities of research topics to realise benefits of the research

Cross-cutting activities Vulner- ability & Risk Multi- scale Forecasts Eval- uation Commu nication Predict- ability & Processes Applications in the forecasting process Seamless from nowcasting to short-range NWP Automation Interpretation Assessment of impacts Communication

Cross-cutting activities Vulner- ability & Risk Multi- scale Forecasts Eval- uation Commu nication Predict- ability & Processes Design of observing strategies Applications in the forecasting process Design of observing strategies Opportunities from sophisticated high resolution observations Assessment of local vs. global Impacts and responses Quality control

Cross-cutting activities Vulner- ability & Risk Multi- scale Forecasts Eval- uation Commu nication Predict- ability & Processes Uncertainty Design of observing strategies Applications in the forecasting process Uncertainty Understanding Predicting Evaluating Communicating

Cross-cutting activities Vulner- ability & Risk Multi- scale Forecasts Eval- uation Commu nication Predict- ability & Processes Field campaigns & demonstrations Uncertainty Design of observing strategies Applications in the forecasting process Field campaigns and demonstration projects Utilise data from previous campaigns Exploit planned activities: Lake Victoria RDP / FDP T-NAWDEX Link to TIGGE-LAM Involve End Users

Cross-cutting activities Vulner- ability & Risk Multi- scale Forecasts Eval- uation Commu nication Predict- ability & Processes Knowledge Transfer Field campaigns & demonstrations Uncertainty Design of observing strategies Applications in the forecasting process Knowledge Transfer Between scientific disciplines Between research and operations Internationally

Cross-cutting activities Vulner- ability & Risk Multi- scale Forecasts Eval- uation Commu nication Predict- ability & Processes Verification Knowledge Transfer Field campaigns & demonstrations Uncertainty Design of observing strategies Applications in the forecasting process Verification Linking process understanding, model development, evaluation

Cross-cutting activities Vulner- ability & Risk Multi- scale Forecasts Eval- uation Commu nication Predict- ability & Processes Impact Forecasting Verification Knowledge Transfer Field campaigns & demonstrations Uncertainty Design of observing strategies Applications in the forecasting process Impact forecasting Focussing research activities on advances needed to forecast the impacts

Transfer of Results Vulner- ability & Risk Multi- scale Forecasts Eval- uation Commu nication Predict- ability & Processes Impact Forecasting Verification Knowledge Transfer Field campaigns & demonstrations Uncertainty Design of observing strategies Applications in the forecasting process Transfer results and benefits of research back to receptors in an adequate manner

External Engagement To-date: knowledge of user requirements present in task team During further development of implementation plan: Engage with national / international bodies that already engage with users During project: meet with end users at variety of levels to define user needs and transfer results

Strategies to achieve goals Develop linkages with other initiatives –International bodies and activities, WWRP Working groups, national initiatives, Post-Hyogo activities on disaster risk reduction Strengthen inter-disciplinary linkages between academia, research institutions and oper. centres –Driven by stakeholders who are concerned with the outcome of increasing resilience, carried out in disciplinary groups Engage communication of scientists with different backgrounds through workshops, conferences etc.

Strategies to achieve goals Establish and exploit special research datasets – Report additional observations through GTS – Continue TIGGE / TIGGE LAM to foster research activities concerning multi-model ensemble processing Significant results for low probability events require large datasets Interaction and communication with stakeholders – Identify needs of stakeholders, engage them and communicate effectively Support research and demonstration projects – Study communication of forecast, perception of recipients and their actions in the field (T-NAWDEX, Lake Victoria, HYMEX, Severe Weather testbed…)

Builds on THORPEX – what is new? Defined by needs of specific weather-related applications Interaction and communication with stakeholders Exploit opportunities from high resolution models and observations Include coupled systems Vulnerability and Risk, Evaluation, Communication Links to S2S: “handover “ for time-scale; benefit from related activities Links to PPP: Collaborate and delineate

Vulner- ability & Risk Multi- scale Forecasts Eval- uation Commu nication Predict- ability & Processes Impact Forecasting Verification Knowledge Transfer Field campaigns & demonstrations Uncertainty Design of observing strategies Applications in the forecasting process WWRP High Impact Weather Project

The overall objective of the High Impact Weather project is to: “Promote cooperative international research to achieve a dramatic increase in resilience to high impact weather, worldwide, through improving forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks and enhancing their communication and utility in social, economic and environmental applications” Mission of Project

Task Team Members Chair: Sarah Jones (DWD, Germany) WMO Consultant: Brian Golding (UKMO, UK) Philippe Arbogast (MeteoFrance, Predictability) Ana Barros (USA, Hydrology) Aida Diongue (Senegal, African Regional Committee) Beth Ebert (BoM, Australia, Verification WG) Grant Elliott (Australia, BoM, Forecaster / User Perspective) Pat Harr (Naval Postgraduate School, USA, PDP WG) Tim Hewson (UKMO, UK, Forecasting process) Julia Keller (DWD, Germany, Ensembles / TIGGE) Stefan Klink (DWD, Germany, EUMETNET Obs Programme, Observations) Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS, University of Miami, USA, Data Assimilation) Rebecca Morss (NCAR, USA, SERA) Pierre Pellerin (Environment Canada, coupled modelling) David Richardson (ECMWF, GIFS-TIGGE) Peter Steinle (Australia BOM, WWRP / Mesoscale WG) Jenny Sun (NCAR, WWRP/ Nowcasting WG) Richard Swinbank (UKMO, GIFS-TIGGE) Zoltan Toth (NOAA, USA, Data Assimilation / Multi-scale modelling) Jian Jie Wang (China, WWRP/ Nowcasting Research WG) Heini Wernli (ETH Zürich, Switzerland, PDP WG) Hui Yu (CMA/Shanghai Typhoon Center; WWRP/ Mesoscale WG) Link to CBS/SWFDP: Ken Mylne (UKMO) Links to PPP and S2S: Co-chairs of Projects