SCO & IRAN: Iranian Security Dream SCO & IRAN: Iranian Security Dream Abbas Maleki The 14h International Conference on Central Asia and the Caucasus The 14h International Conference on Central Asia and the Caucasus " Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Prospects and Opportunities" Tehran, October 30-31, 2006 The 14h International Conference on Central Asia and the Caucasus

SCO and its successes  War against Terrorism  Ethnic Violence  Narcotics  Border Conflicts  Challenges to unipolar system

SCO and its failures  Disability on playing world class role  Lack of consensus on political development  Strengthening of authoritarian regimes  Expansion of radicalism, separatism

What is Iran’s goal to join SCO?   Islamic Revolution’s perception on convergent activities   Strengthening Iran’s geopolitical role   Looking to the East   Reduce US treats against Iran   More economic ties with Russia, China and India   Integrated Energy Market in Asia

Islamic Revolution’s perception on convergent activities  Mahdaviat: Doctrine of Hope in Shi’ia, United World Order in Future United World Order in Future  The Constitution of the Islamic Republic makes clear Iran’s preferences in foreign policy. (1) Iran’s neighbours; (1) Iran’s neighbours; (2) Muslim countries; (2) Muslim countries; (3) Third World countries; (3) Third World countries; (4) countries that furnish political, economic, social and/or military needs of Iran. (4) countries that furnish political, economic, social and/or military needs of Iran.

Islamic Revolution’s perception on convergent activities (2)  In search of ways to expand its interests, Tehran looked towards cooperation with neighbors, with other nearby and Muslim states  Iran became a major player in regional and International organizations as ECO ECO OIC OIC OPEC OPEC SCO SCO D8 D8

Iran and Initiated Regional Organization  Persian States Countries: Iran, Afghanistan, Tajikistan Iran, Afghanistan, Tajikistan  Caspian Cooperation Organization: Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan  Shi’a Nations Rim: 1-Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Bahrain 1-Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Bahrain 2-Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Lebanon, 2-Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Lebanon, Afghanistan Afghanistan

Strengthening Iran’s geopolitical role Iran’s Subregions:  Middle East  Persian Gulf  South West Asia  Central Asia, Caucasus, and Afghanistan  Caspian Basin

Middle East Sub Region

Asian Identity

Iran’s advantages  Iran’s geographical position,  culture  Political hierarchy  Economic stature  Military muscle give it the potential to play a leading or pivotal role in a number of regional configurations: give it the potential to play a leading or pivotal role in a number of regional configurations: -Persian Gulf -Persian Gulf -Central Asia -Central Asia -Caspian Basin -Caspian Basin

What can Iran do?  Critical tools: Dialogue with other nations Dialogue with other nations Economic and technological advancement; Economic and technological advancement; Regional positioning; Regional positioning;  Iran‘s response in foreign relations has mainly focused on 3 levels; Consolidating Iran‘s regional position and relations In Middle East Consolidating Iran‘s regional position and relations In Middle East Deepening the relations with the European Union as a leverage against potential future US domination in the region; Deepening the relations with the European Union as a leverage against potential future US domination in the region; Seeking a new strategic relationship with Asian Countries Seeking a new strategic relationship with Asian Countries

Looking to the East Iran has  1% of the world’s population,  7% of the world’s natural reserves including -10% of the global proven oil reserves -10% of the global proven oil reserves -16% of the world’s natural gas resources. -16% of the world’s natural gas resources. 130 b barrel oil (17 billion tons) 27 trillion cm gas which means $3000 billions 130 b barrel oil (17 billion tons) 27 trillion cm gas which means $3000 billions

Energy resource periphery Energy demand heartland

Reduce US treats against Iran

Iran’s Neighbors in the day of event  US full control: -Afghanistan -Afghanistan -Azerbaijan -Azerbaijan -Qatar -Qatar -Bahrain -Bahrain  Russian group: -Russia -Russia -Turkmenistan -Turkmenistan -Armenia -Armenia  US semi control: -Iraq -Saudi Arabia -Iraq -Saudi Arabia -Kuwait -UAE -Kuwait -UAE -Oman -Pakistan -Oman -Pakistan -Turkey -Kazakhstan -Turkey -Kazakhstan

US Pressures  Iran was using the game of showing to shift from one super power to another during bipolar system  US did not desire to see Iran as Iranistan  After US-Iraq war in 1991 and collapse of Soviet Union in 1992, US shifted its policy against Iran: Dual Containment Dual Containment ILSA ILSA Rogue States Rogue States Axis of evils Axis of evils Nuclear Pariah Nuclear Pariah  UNSC Sanctions

Can SCO help Iran to manage its challenges? Conceptual Challenges in Iran’s Foreign Relations:  Iran-US Relations  Iran-EU Relations  Oil price  Treaty of Friendship between Iran and Iraq (1975)  Iran’s share of Hirmand River  3 Iranian Islands in Persian Gulf  Caspian legal regime

Iranian “Allies” in US-Iran Context  China Economic not political relations; not bought and paid for Economic not political relations; not bought and paid for As a mater of general policy, opposes sanctions, but… As a mater of general policy, opposes sanctions, but… Believes Iran should not ‘push’ the issue Believes Iran should not ‘push’ the issue  Russia Opportunism Opportunism Iranian mistrust Iranian mistrust

SCO and Lonely Iran  Iran is a unique state in this region with “Strategic Loneliness”.  This fact is encouraging Iran to think how would be more secure in individual manner.

SCO and Middle East security  No common understanding or framework of security, divergent interests  US strategic presence in Asia and its impact: - Historically polarising - US military umbrella for GCC - From indirect to direct hegemony - Containment (encirclement) of Iran

Potential future Scenarios, Can SCO support Iran?  Iraq instability continues  US-Iran confrontation escalates into conflict  Unpredicted radical change in a GCC state  US withdraws from Iraq: 1. Civil war erupts, violence spreads in the region, or 2. International community steps in to help stabilise Iraq

Thank you

Four Iran Historic Compromises with its Neighbors  Iran-Soviet Russia Friendship Treaty, 1921  Iran-UK MOU on situation of Abu Musa Island in Persian Gulf, 1971  Iran-Iraq Treaty on Friendship and Governmental Borders, 1975  Iran-Afghanistan Agreement on the portion of Hirmand Waters, 1976

Iran’s Regional Foreign Policy Regional Challenge:  Caspian Sea Legal Regime  Persian Gulf States  Iraq  Afghanistan Historical Compromise: Historical Compromise:  Iran-Soviet Russia Friendship Treaty, 1921  Iran-UK MOU on situation of Abu Musa Island in Persian Gulf, 1971  Iran-Iraq Treaty on Friendship and Governmental Borders, 1975  Iran-Afghanistan Agreement on the portion of Hirmand Waters, 1976