The scope for ‘green’ growth and a new technological revolution Alex Bowen, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, LSE CAGE/CCCEP.

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Presentation transcript:

The scope for ‘green’ growth and a new technological revolution Alex Bowen, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, LSE CAGE/CCCEP workshop, 25 January 2011

‘Green’ growth: outline Necessity Potential Challenges Policy implications

‘Green’ growth: necessity Business as usual Costly Risky Unsustainable Growth still necessary Poverty alleviation Politics

Projected primary energy supply Source: WITCH model runs for the RECIPE project EJ BAU 410 ppm CO 2

Change in UK emission intensity required to meet 2050 target Emission intensity

bullets Source: World Bank data. Green Accounting: Adjusted Net Savings. The challenge of sustainability

‘Green’ growth: potential Keynesian stimulus in the short run Wave of innovation in the medium run Loosening the energy resource straightjacket in the long run Global primary energy consumption c. 12,000 mtoe p.a. Technical potential for renewable energy >180,000 mtoe, 2/3 geothermal (Rogner, 2000)

6 th industrial revolution: new energy technologies? Biotech? Source: Perez (2010) Perez: techno-economic paradigm shifts

Sources of energy used for power in UK

‘Green’ growth: challenges Costs Lower productivity (for how long?) Crowding out consumption and/or other investment Managing structural change Timing with respect to macroeconomic conditions

Global consumption costs Target of 410 ppm CO 2 Source: RECIPE project synthesis report (2009)

Job creation or low productivity? Source: Wei et al (2010)

Not all measures equally ‘jobs-friendly:’ the Korean stimulus

Structural adjustment challenge Source: Babiker and Eckaus (2007)

‘Green’ growth: challenges Are the conditions for a new long wave of development present? Size of sector Competition from old technologies Sailing ship effect Fossil fuel rents Difficulties in differentiating the product

Source: ONS Blue Book 2010 edition Industry contributions to total gross value added, UK

Energy substitutions in lighting (UK) Source: Fouquet (2010) Innovation to dominance Diffusion to dominance

Where are the new jobs going to be? Source: Pollin, Heintz and Garrett-Peltier (2009): ‘The economic benefits of investing in clean energy’ CAP/PERI, June

‘Green’ growth: challenges Dependence on policies Credibility Time inconsistency Lack of understanding Rent seeking Free riders Lags in implementation

‘Effort’ versus carbon intensity Source: HSBC (May 2009) and WRI CAIT

Focus on energy efficiency Source: HSBC (2009): ‘Taking stock of the green stimulus’ November

Promoting technological innovation Source: World Bank WDR 2010

Promoting technological innovation Source: World Bank WDR 2010

Environmental MDG: progress by 2010 Source: UN Millennium Development Goals progress Chart

‘Green’ growth: policies and the need to use all the tools in the tool-kit The GHG externality Innovation Competition Network externalities Financial system (need for a GIB) Trade (energy security issue) Scrutiny of policies and learning

Ratio of ‘clean’ to ‘dirty’ auto patents Source: Aghion, P, Dechezlepretre, A, Hemous, D, Martin, R, and J Van Reenen (2010)

Promoting technological innovation versus