World Bank Support for Social Safety Nets Evaluation Findings of the Independent Evaluation Group Presentation to Civil Society Organizations World Bank – IMF Annual Meetings 2011 September 21,

IEG: Independent Evaluation We report to the World Bank Group’s boards directors We evaluate for accountability, learning and to contribute to better operational and developmental results 2

Overview 1.Main messages 2.Definitions and context 3.Evaluation questions and methodology 4.Findings 3

Main messages 1.SSN built during stable times can respond to shocks 2.SSNs need good institutions and systems 3.There is more potential for SSNs in LICs 4.Results frameworks need improvement 4

Social Safety Nets are … “Non-contributory transfers, targeted, in some way, to the poor and vulnerable.” Such as: Cash transfer programs Food and in-kind transfers Energy, water and housing subsidies Education and health subsidies programs Public works programs 5

Social Safety Nets can… 1.Reduce chronic poverty and inequality by increasing consumption by the poorest 2.Improve investments in human capital by the poor 3.Protect the poor and vulnerable from: individual or systemic shocks the negative effects that can accompany macro- reforms 6

Context Recent crises underscore a need for SSNs Food, fuel, and financial crises increased hardship: 65m more people were pushed into extreme poverty Bank-supported SSN programs were growing US$11.5 billion for 244 projects in 83 countries from ; but half in the last 2 years of the decade IEG had never evaluated SSN support 7

Evaluation questions How effective and relevant has the Bank been in helping countries establish sound SSNs? What lessons were learned? 8

Methodology Portfolio reviews of 244 lending projects, trust funds, and analytical work Case studies of 30 countries Staff survey Thematic background studies (8) Impact evaluations of safety nets 149 IEs, sub-sample of 36 Bank-supported programs, 2 new IEs 9

Findings 10

1. Greatest focus on chronic poor… 11 SSN Functions (percent of projects) SSN support focused was on chronic poverty and human development, less on shocks

… but, support increased with recent crises 12

2. Bank’s approach shifted to greater support for systems & institutions Involves developing: data, targeting, payment, and M&E systems coordinated SSN programs appropriate for different groups of poor and vulnerable 13

3. MICs got more attention than LICs 14 Support for SSNs in MICs was higher than in LICs

4. Short-term results were generally positive… On average, SSN lending performs better than the rest of the Bank’s portfolio 15 Project outcomes rated satisfactory or higher

…but results frameworks need improvement ► Greater clarity in project design: Just over 50% of projects supporting SSNs mention poverty reduction in their objectives Less than 50% of projects have an indicator to measure change in poverty ► Greater planning for long term objectives needed. 16

Main messages 1.SSN built during stable times can respond to shocks 2.SSNs need good institutions and systems 3.There is more potential for SSNs in LICs 4.Results frameworks need improvement 17

World Bank Support to Social Safety Nets 18