Pakistan Punjab Female Stipend Program Evaluating the Impact
Outline CCT Program Evaluation question Data and methodology Impact estimates
Female Secondary School Stipends Part of Punjab Education Sector Reform Program (PESRP), World Bank financed education program PERSP – quality, access and governance Female Stipends – CCT for middle school started in 2004
Stipends Program Eligibility: girls enrolled in 6-8 grades in government schools in target districts Target districts: 15 of the 34 districts were chosen based on the district’s female literacy rate Conditionality: 80% average attendance Amount: Rs 200 ($3) transferred directly to student via postal money order from EDO
Evaluation Question Impact on enrolments School switching Impact across welfare quintiles School Quality Externality: male enrolments Externality: health, marriage, malnutrition
Data Government School Censuses 2003, 2005 LSMS-type national household surveys (PIHS , LSMS ) Growth in enrolments (absolute and relative) Changes in school participation rates
Methodology Estimating impact requires choosing a suitable comparison group Simple before and after or between program and non-program groups are misleading Combination of techniques Difference-in-Difference (DD) DD-in-Difference (DDD) Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD)
School Level Census Data BasicRDD parametric RDD non- parametric DD absolute DDD absolute DD percent DDD percent Impact Estimates (net growth of girl enrolments per school )
National household data (PIHS , PSLM ) BasicRDD parametric DD percent DDD percent Impact Estimates II (net change in school participation rate)
Findings and next steps Modest but statistically significant impact on enrolments Evidence from national household survey data indicates stipends helping poor children attend schools Preliminary evidence from primary survey data points to similar findings on enrolments In the process of analyzing the linkage between stipends and quality (test scores)