Examination of the Mitigation Sections of the Initial Communications The CGE Global Hands-on Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments Seoul, Republic of Korea, 26–30 September 2005 Thematic Group on Mitigation Consultative Group of Experts (CGE)

Background Guidelines for the preparation of initial communications by parties not included in Annex I to the Convention (Annex to decision 17/CP.8) Reporting on climate change: User manual for the guidelines on national communications from Non-Annex I Parties Decision 3/CP.8, Terms of Reference, paragraph 9 31 NCs from NAI Parties were examined

List of national communications Africa Benin Burkina Faso Cameroon Central Africa Republic Comoros Djibouti Eritrea Gabon (French) Gambia Guinea (French) Kenya Madagascar (French) Malawi Mauritania (French) Namibia Nigeria South Africa Sudan Swaziland Uganda Tanzania Zambia Asia and the Pacific Bangladesh Cambodia China (Chinese) DPRK India Iran Kyrgyzstan Nepal Pakistan Palau Solomon Islands Tajikistan Viet Nam Latin America and the Caribbean Belize Brazil Dominican Republic Trinidad & Tobago Total : 42 NCs Exam. : 31 NCs Others Albania Malta The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Criteria for examination 1 Social and economic development framework for climate change mitigation 2 Main national economic and social development trends, including expected GHG emissions 3 Approaches used to conduct mitigation analysis, e.g., top-down or bottom-up 4 Tools/models and methods used to assess mitigation, sectors analyzed, data and/or information gaps, and limitations of the technical resources 5 Identification of mitigation options related to the most important future sources and sinks sectors 6 Screening of mitigation options 7 Assessment of reduction potential and cost of mitigation 8 Integration of GHG reductions and costs across measures and sectors, through the construction of GHG mitigation marginal cost curves 9 Qualitative description of main macroeconomic impacts of national climate change mitigation strategies 10 Assessment of key macroeconomic parameters 11 Barriers and opportunities for implementation 12 Programs and measures implemented or planned that contribute to mitigate climate change 13 Projects aimed at reducing GHG emissions and enhancing the removal by sinks

Summary of examination The scope, coverage and depth of reports vary significantly among Parties. Information that many Parties elaborated well include: Social and economic development framework for climate change mitigation Identification of mitigation options related to the most important future sources and sinks sectors Barriers and opportunities for implementation Programs and measures implemented or planned that contribute to mitigate climate change

Summary of examination Information that many Parties didn’t elaborate well include: Tools/models and methods used to assess mitigation, sectors analyzed, data and/or information gaps, and limitations of the technical resources Integration of GHG reductions and costs across measures and sectors, through the construction of GHG mitigation marginal cost curves Qualitative description of main macroeconomic impacts of national climate change mitigation strategies Assessment of key macroeconomic parameters

Mitigation assessment Most Parties provided general information on the social and economic development framework for CC mitigation Several Parties showed the main national economic and social trends, including GHG emission outlook Time horizon: 2010, 2020, 2030 or 2100(Kyrgyzstan) Many Parties provided only historical trends No GHG emission forecast by many Parties

Technical resources for mitigation analysis Major approach: bottom-up Both B-U and T-D approaches by some Parties (India, Brazil) Tools/models and methods Major tools: LEAP and COMAP MAKAL, EFOM, COPATH used by several Parties Some Parties addressed the problem of lack of data

Baseline, mitigation scenarios and projections Major parts that most Parties had difficulties in elaborating the information Identification and screening of mitigation options relative well elaborated by many Parties Many Parties didn’t provide any results on assessment of reduction potential and cost of mitigation No GHG mitigation marginal cost curve by integration of GHG reductions and costs across measures and sectors Tanzania: MC curves for energy and forestry sectors for 2030 No macroeconomic assessment for mitigation options

Barriers and opportunities for implementation Most Parties elaborated challenges/limitations well and described needs of financial and technical supports, capacity building, etc.

Implications and Recommendations Technical difficulties in analyzing mitigation potentials, costs and macroeconomic impacts Technical support and capacity building for mitigation analysis needed for preparation of the informative second and where appropriate third NCs Heavy data requirement Standardization of time period for GHG emission projection and mitigation assessment

Problems to solve & Further works by CGE Completion of examination for all 42 NCs Cross check of examination results by thematic group members Scope of report 10/CP.2: refers only to programs containing measures to address climate change 17/CP.8 & User manual: not for the initial communication Thematic group: 10/CP.2 including information which are not required by 10/CP.2, but provided.