T HE S CIENCE OF G LOBAL C LIMATE C HANGE : How Climate Change May Affect Minnesota’s Ecosystems Dr. Jeffrey R. Corney, Managing Director of the University of Minnesota’s Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve

2012 Hottest on Record for the U.S. “It's perhaps no surprise that 2012 has been officially named the warmest year on record in the contiguous United States. The first decade of the 21st century was the warmest on record…The average temperature was 55.3 degrees F, or 3.2 degrees F above the 20th-century average. Last year also was second only to 1998 in terms of extreme climate, as measured by U.S. Climate Extremes Index, which takes into account factors like high temperatures, dry spells and rainy periods.” - NBC News (reporting based on NOAA announcement of Jan. 8, 2013)

W HAT M AY H APPEN TO M INNESOTA ’ S C LIMATE ? H OW M AY C HANGES IN C LIMATE A FFECT M INNESOTA ’ S E COSYSTEMS ?

W ELCOME TO L AKE S UPERIOR ? Stock Photos

Wikipedia I T ’ S A LL A BOUT THE C LIMATE … CLIMATE is the prevailing weather conditions of a region averaged over long periods of time.

Wikipedia A BIOME is a large land area characterized by a prevailing CLIMATE that supports a major ecological community type. … AND THE B IOMES THAT R ESULT N ORTH A MERICA ’ S B IOMES

M INNESOTA ’ S B IOMES Minnesota is unique in that it supports three major biomes, making it a grand ECOTONE… a transition zone between biomes. MN DNR

W HERE G OES THE C LIMATE, SO G OES THE B IOMES …

Pearson Education C LIMATE & B IOME P ATTERNS

T EMPERATURE (Solar Radiation) P RECIPITATION (Amount & Timing) S OIL M OISTURE (Evapotranspiration)

G LOBAL B IOMES “S URVIVE & T HRIVE ” U.S. (Robert)

-14 o F BOREAL FOREST 60 o F -20 o F 0 o F 30 o F 41 o F 60 o F 80 o F 41 o F 10 o F GRASSLAND 80 o F 40 o F DECIDUOUS 72 o F A VERAGE A NNUAL T EMPERATURE (U.S.) “S URVIVE & T HRIVE ” T OLERANCE R ANGES J.Corney

10in. 20in. 35in. 45in. 60in. 26in. 25in. DECIDUOUS FOREST 60in. 15in. BOREAL FOREST 40in. 10in. GRASSLAND 35in. A VERAGE A NNUAL P RECIPITATION (U.S.) “S URVIVE & T HRIVE ” T OLERANCE R ANGES J.Corney

U.S. 5 o C (41 o F) 66cm (26in.) C ONTINENTAL U.S. B IOMES

U.S. A VERAGE T EMPERATURES 42 o F 45 o F 48 o F 51 o F 54 o F 58 o F 62 o F 64 o F 72 o F 68 o F 51 o F 45 o F 58 o F 64 o F 62 o F 54 o F 42 o F 51 o F 39 o F 72 o F ( ) 72 o F 68 o F

B Eco tone Sub-Tropical Temperate S U.S.: o C (10-80 o F) U.S.: o C ( o F) U.S.: 2-22 o C (35-72 o F) T EMPERATURE 5 o C (41 o F) Boreal Sub-Arctic N J.Corney

U.S. A VERAGE P RECIPITATION

Semi-Mesic Mesic Eco tone E Arid Semi-Arid W 25-87cm (10-35in) cm (15-40in) cm (25-60in) P RECIPITATION 66cm (26in.) J.Corney

Wikipedia S OIL M OISTURE Evapotranspiration 67% Surface Runoff 29% Consumptive Use 2% Groundwater Outflow 2% U.S. Estimated Water Budget USGS

UCF.edu Purdue.edu Water Vapor Pressure by Temperature H EAT E NERGY “D RIVES ” E VAPOTRANSPIRATION

M OISTURE R ETAINED IN THE S OIL

NOAA Wikipedia U.S. “Pan” Evaporation Rates (a rough measure of Potential Evapotranspiration)

E W S OIL M OISTURE N S Ecotone J.Corney

Hanson & Weltzin; NOAA data T YPICAL U.S. D ROUGHT C ONDITIONS

N ORTH A MERICA ’ S P RAIRIE -F OREST B ORDER ?

W HAT I S M INNESOTA ’ S C URRENT C LIMATE ? (Averaged over the past 115 years) D O T HESE A VERAGES L OOK F AMILIAR ? TEMPERATURE: 41 o F annual avg. PRECIPITATION: 26 in. annual avg. Minnesota DNR State Climatology Office

TEMPERATURE 44 o F 37 o F 41 o F NWS T EMPERATURE I SOLINES

40in PRECIPITATION 26in 22in 34in NWS P RECIPITATION I SOLINES

PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE 44 o F 37 o F 41 o F 22in34in 26in NWS I SOLINE C ONVERGENCE P OINT CONIFEROUS FOREST DECIDUOUS FOREST GRASSLAND MINNESOTA BIOMES MN DNR

MN annual avg. ranges 45 o F - 36 o F w/ Avg. = 41 o F (5 o C) 26in. C URRENT MN C LIMATE OF 2012 MN avg. ranges 19in. – 34in. w/ Avg. = 26in. (66cm) 41 o F

S OIL M OISTURE B ALANCE USDA PRAIRIE FOREST

H AVE T HERE B EEN C HANGES IN MN’ S C LIMATE ? IPCC

34in 19in 26in 31in 36 o F 40 o F 43 o F 41 o F Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches) Average Annual Temperature Isoclines ( o F) TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT ( ) NWS adapted by C. Lehman St. Cloud Area 23in 1930

37in 22in 26in 34in 37 o F 39 o F 44 o F 41 o F Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches) Average Annual Temperature Isoclines ( o F) TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT ( ) NWS adapted by C. Lehman 2010 Detroit Lakes Area 30in

CONIFEROUS FOREST DECIDUOUS FOREST GRASSLAND MINNESOTA BIOMES MN DNR About a 100 mile shift

W HAT M AY H APPEN TO M INNESOTA ’ S F UTURE C LIMATE ? IPCC NASA

TEMPERATURE 3.5 – 4.0 o C (6.3 – 7.2 o F) INCREASE 5 o C (41 o F) Current Avg. becomes 9 o C (48 o F) Predicted Avg. PRECIPITATION 5 – 10% (1.3 – 2.6 in.) INCREASE 26 in. Current Avg. becomes 28 in. Predicted Avg IPCC, 2007

Minnesota DNR State Climatology Office 2000 > 2030 > 2060 MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS

USGCRP 2100 MORE PRECIPITATION BUT …S UMMERS MAY BE MUCH DRIER THAN CURRENT CONDITIONS.

39in 26in 36in 48 o F 51 o F 41 o F Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches) Average Annual Temperature Isoclines ( o F) TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT ( ) 2100 NWS adapted by C. Lehman Oh, Canada! 28in 32in 44 o F

P REDICTED MN C LIMATE OF 2100 MN annual avg. ranges 54 o F - 42 o F w/ Avg. = 48 o F (9 o C) MN avg. ranges 19in. – 37in. w/ Avg. = 28in. (71cm) 26in. 41 o F

About a 300 mile shift GRASSLAND DECIDUOUS FOREST MINNESOTA BIOMES 2100 SAVANNA J. Corney

S OIL M OISTURE B ALANCE USDA Modified from USDA CURRENT PROJECTED [Rough Projection for 2100] PRAIRIE FOREST

Projected (2100)

USDA & National Arbor Day Foundation Plant Hardiness Zones

USGCRP – Hayhoe, et al.

W HERE G OES THE C LIMATE, SO G OES THE B IOMES …

S O, M AYBE N OT T HIS … Stock Photos

P ERHAPS S OMETHING L IKE T HIS … Cedar Creek

Luka S O, H OW W ILL THE T REES M IGRATE ?

MN DNR D ISTURBANCE, S UCCESSION & C OMPETITION

Dr. Jeffrey R. Corney, Managing Director University of Minnesota Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve 2660 Fawn Lake Dr NE East Bethel, MN (763)