Alternative Futures of Small Island Society in the Era of Globalization: A Case from Republic of Palau Takashi Mita Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science University of Hawai‘i at Manoa

Republic of Palau (Belau, 帛琉 ) Population =19,129 (Census 2000)Population =19,129 (Census 2000) Size = 190 sq. mi.Size = 190 sq. mi. Political Status:Political Status: Freely Associated State with US (1994) Per capita GDP = US$6,000Per capita GDP = US$6,000 Major Income Sources: Compact Money from US, TourismMajor Income Sources: Compact Money from US, Tourism

Global Dynamics Observed in Palau Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.) Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan) Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia) International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe) Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)

Futures Studies Trend Analysis (Present and Past) Forecasting Futures Based on Trend Not Prediction, but Forecasting Deductive Forecasting Method Alternative Futures Model Scenario Making

Factors of Changes (Past and Present) Colonial Development Decolonization Process Global Dynamics

Factors of Changes (Future) –Foreign Assistance (More? Less?) –Tourism (Increase? Decrease?) –Investment (Increase? Decrease?) –End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?) –Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?) Guest Workers from PhilippinesTourists from Taiwan

Factors of Changes (Future) –Compact Road –Capital Relocation –US Military Bases? –Change of Lifestyle New Capitol BuildingCircle Island 53-mile Compact Road

Alternative Futures Models 1. Continued Growth Model 2. Collapsed Society Model 3. Disciplined Society Model 4. Transformational Society Model

1. Continued Growth Model –external sources of income (compact money, aid) –foreign investment, tourists, guest workers –mass tourism, mass production, imported goods –westernization of culture Modernization Theory Neo-Liberal Globalization Discorse (eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s) Alternative Futures Scenarios (deductive forecasting)

2. Collapse Model –stagnation of external sources of income –end of compact money, aid –withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists –unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken –loss of indigenous culture (eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)

Alternative Futures Scenarios (deductive forecasting) 3. Disciplined Society Model –endogenous development –indigenous networks and lifestyles –indigenous political and social norms –Palauan participation in the labor force Sustainable Development Human Development Endogenous Development (eg. Yap State in FSM)

Alternative Futures Scenarios (deductive forecasting) 4. Transformational Society Model –Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation? –New industries? New economic netowork? –Fewer bureaucrats? –Palauan returnees as new labor power? –Creation of regional identity? (eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)

Alternative Future Models of Palau

Palauan Visions of Futures Visions Leaders –President Remengesau Jr. continued growth + disciplined society –High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai disciplined society + concerned on collapse –Legislators disciplined society + continued growth + concerned on collapse –Economic Leaders continued growth + disciplined society

Palauan Visions of Futures (Visions of Ordinary People) Preferred Future Political Status

Palauan Visions of Futures (Visions of Ordinary People) Preferred Future Political Framework

Palauan Visions of Futures (Visions of Ordinary People) Preferred Economic Future

Palauan Visions of Futures (Visions of Ordinary People) Attitude toward foreign guest workers

Conclusion Limitation of Continued Growth Model Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society Seeking Disciplined Society Potential of Transformation Model

Total GDP/Per Capita GDP ( ) (2001, 2002 Estimate)

Palau Trade Statistics ( ).