U.S. GLOBEC Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics GOAL: Identify how a changing global climate will affect the abundance and dynamics of marine animal populations STRATEGY: Focus on processes linking climate variables -> physical processes in the ocean-> population dynamics of marine animals OUTCOME: Translate knowledge of the coupling between physical and biological processes into assessments and predictions of the impact of climate change on marine resources and marine ecosystems

U.S. GLOBEC Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics Partnerships Within NOAA: –Major funding and program oversight from NOS/NCCOS/CSCOR –Shiptime and scientists from NMFS/NEFSC, NWFSC, AFSC –Scientists from OAR/PMEL Partnerships Across Federal agencies: –Partnership with National Science Foundation, funding split between NSF and CSCOR, co-management of review and award process –Participation of scientists from USGS, Naval Postgraduate Lab Partnerships Between Academic and Federal Researchers: –Academic scientists from >25 institutions nationwide collaborate with researchers from NMFS, OAR/ERLs and U.S. Naval Postgraduate School –Brings cutting-edge science to Federal agencies, allows academic researchers to see the application of their results International Partnerships: –U.S. GLOBEC is a project of the US Global Change Research Program, and is part of GLOBEC International, sponsored by Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research and International Council for the Exploration of the Seas –U.S. GLOBEC has a large role in the Pacific marine science organization PICES

The GLOBEC Strategy Process studies for mechanistic understanding at limited time periods Broad-scale observations for longer-term context, seasonal changes Retrospective studies for very long-term context Modeling to assimilate and synthesize findings Technological innovations to fuel progress

U.S. GLOBEC Study Areas Northwest Atlantic –Density-driven retentive circulation Northern California Current –Wind-driven upwelling Gulf of Alaska –Wind and buoyancy- driven seasonal downwelling Southern Ocean –Ice-dominated

GLOBEC Northeast Pacific Focus on oceanic ecosystems supporting salmon in the Northeast Pacific Ocean Northern California Current –Eastern Boundary Current –Seasonal wind-driven upwelling –Field seasons off Oregon coast in 2000, 2002 Coastal Gulf of Alaska –Predominantly downwelling –Circulation forced by freshwater input and wind –Field seasons in 2001, 2003

Coastal Gulf of Alaska LTOP in place Process field studies 2001, 2003 Focus on cross-shelf variability vs alongshelf variability

GLOBEC LTOP CGOA - Vertical CTD-Chlorophyll-PAR profiles along Seward Line. - Continuous, underway ADCP, SST, surface salinity, and fluorescence data. - Discrete bottle samples for measurements of nutrients, chlorophyll pigments, oxygen isotope ratios, and zooplankton. - Vertical tows for zooplankton and microzooplankton. - Acoustically determine abundance and distribution of zooplankton. - MOCNESS tows to help form canonical correlations with the acoustic data. - Gillnet and midwater trawling to collect fish. - Determine rates of growth and reproduction of crustacean zooplankton. Results available at /results/

Cross-shelf variability Outer shelf diatoms sparse, needle-shaped Inner shelf diatoms centric, chain-forming Iron limitation on outer shelf, small cells subject to microzoopl. grazing Pictures and information from Suzanne Strom, Western Washington University

Along-shelf variability Andy Thomas, University of Maine Phyllis Stabeno, PMEL

Physical-Biological Modeling Al Hermann, PMEL Sarah Hinkley, AFSC

GLOBEC Northeast Pacific Atmospheric Indices The NOIx (extratropical Northern Oscillation Index) and its analog, the SOIx (extratropical Southern Oscillation Index) are new indices of midlatitude climate fluctuations that show interesting relationships with fluctuations in marine ecosystems and populations. Counterparts to the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) that is a good indicator of tropical variations related to El Niño and La Niña

GLOBEC Northeast Pacific NOIx and Salmon relationships Similar trends in NOIx and salmon catch GLOBEC program will provide mechanistic understanding of how and why they are related Potential for management to adapt to changing oceanic regimes Frank Schwing, Pacific Fisheries Environmental Lab

Synthesis Data -> Understanding -> Knowledge -> Policy and Action -> Societal benefit GLOBEC Synthesis –Integrated understanding of physical and biological processes controlling population dynamics of target organisms –Evaluate how a varying climate may influence these populations –Use knowledge, techniques, and technologies to improve predictability of marine system for management purposes

Products from GLOBEC synthesis Path to management: –Through periodic advice from NMFS fishery science centers to FMCs –Through index development and transfer to FMC decision process –Through advice to intergovernmental bodies such as ICES and PICES

GLOBEC Legacy Program ends 2010 –Pan-regional synthesis Data Model advances and model products Advancing ecosystem management Informing ocean observing systems Papers, special volumes, books Cadre of graduate students trained Influencing scientific programs to follow

Ecological Forecasting

What is needed for an ecological forecast? Understanding of ecosystem composition, structure, and functioning, and their responses to stressors –Process studies Knowledge of ecosystem conditions – past, present, scale of variability –Monitoring, indicators –Information science Forecasting and interpretation tools –Modeling and visualization –Translation and operationalization

How do we approach forecasting? Fill gaps in scientific uncertainty Integrate disciplines –Natural sciences –Social sciences –Economics –Information sciences –Modeling Quantify forecast uncertainty Foster innovation in all disciplines

Who will use an ecological forecast? “Forecasts based solely on on scientific objectives have little influence on policy because there is no stakeholder” (Clark et al., 2001) Communication between scientists and managers –Identify management needs, appropriate forecast formats –Direct and focus research questions Education of management community –Utility and uncertainty of forecasts Education of research community –Types of information useful