1 Architecture and Planning Strategies for Addressing Radiation, Space Weather, and Space Climatology Impact on NASA Missions Study Sponsor - NASA Office of the Chief Engineer Points of Contact OCE: Harold Bell Heliophysics: Lika Guhathakurta, Chris St.Cyr ANSER: Ron Turner Presentation to Space Weather Week April 29, 2008

2 Overview Space radiation poses a significant risk to NASA missions Meeting the challenge crosses all NASA directorates: –Science –Operations –Exploration –Aeronautics Needed: an approach to build on existing research activities and pending heliophysics missions to compile operationally effective space weather observations, produce appropriate operational models, and maintain associated communications to support NASA missions throughout the solar system through 2020

3 Larger Context An operational space weather architecture is one element of a bigger radiation mitigation strategic framework –Enhanced space weather prediction capability –Effects of space radiation of soft tissue –Hardened/fault tolerant sensor parts –Environmental simulation facilities –Standards (human rating, parts, materials) –Forecasting (NOAA, others…)

4 Space Weather Architecture Elements Mission Operations Instructions, Commands Flight Plan Flight Rules Robotic Missions Total dose estimates for mission design Operations support Anomaly resolution Launch Operations Risk to Avionics Anomaly resolution Mission Support Impact/ Options Dosimeter data Environment Transport Code Limits Space Weather Forecast Center Outlook/ Warning/ Alert Climatology Nowcast Forecast Models and Analysis Input Solar Imager(s) Heliosphere Monitor(s) Particle Environment Monitor(s) Magnetosphere Monitor(s) Concept of Surface Operations Crew Vehicle HabitatRoverSuit Shielding Dose/Dose Rate Monitors Communications Human Missions

5 OCE Study Elements of the study will include: –Identify NASA Mission Directorates strategic and mission requirements –Describe current state of space weather/climatology architecture (sensors, models, simulation facilities, and forecasting capability) –Document current trends in space weather/climatology theory and models –Prepare NASA operational space weather needs and constraints document Output of the study should include three alternative architectures: –"status quo" –"modestly evolutionary" –"breakthrough "

6 Deliverables First 6 months: –What are the requirements –Current state and trends –Strawman alternatives Second 6 months: –Scrub of requirements and constraints –Alternative architectures –Capability/plans shortfall analysis

7 Architecture Studies Three notional architectures: –“Status quo" (extending today’s capability into the future) –“Modestly evolutionary" (improved operations implementing current state of the art) –“Breakthrough" (what might be deployed incorporating expected findings from planned missions) Each architecture should be accompanied by schedule and resources to support –Enabling research –Model development –Transition of models to operations –Realistic timeframes for acquisition of new operational assets Each architecture document shall identify –Enabling research required –Model development required –Radiation testing strategies, to include facilities –Issues related to Radiation Health and Safety Compliance –Communications strategies within the Agency to ensure ongoing coordination and cooperation –Significant shortfalls between existing or planned capability and what is needed to support the projected architectures

8 Requirements Analysis How does radiation in general and space weather in particular impact NASA operations Compilation of NASA strategic and mission requirements –Human Spaceflight Launch Earth Orbit Lunar Mars –Earth and Space Science Missions Launch Operations Anomaly resolution –Aeronautics High Altitude Flight Avionics How are these impacts formally documented in NASA needs and standards

9 Current State of the Art and Trends How is space weather support provided today –Operational space weather satellites and sensors –Operational models –Forecast capability NOAA SWPC NASA SRAG –Use of space science satellites and research models –Simulation facilities (electronic effects and certification) –Research facilities (biological impact) Document current trends in space weather/climatology theory and models –What are the major research areas in heliophysics –What models are sought or under development –What is expected of new and pending missions STEREO SDO Solar Probe etc

10 Timeline MARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMAR Requirements State of the Art Trends in theory and modeling Strawman Architectures NASA Needs and Constraints Final Architectures Gap Analysis Meet with SRAG Space Weather Week (NOAA) SHINE/GEM Space Radiation Health Investigators Workshop American Geophysical Union TRAVEL MILESTONES Deliverables will be in the form of a bound report and a PowerPoint briefing