Recap of Day 1 Panel Day 1 Panel: Colonel (Sel) Mark Welshinger, OFCM (USAF)

Day 1 PANEL RISK ASSESSMENT: METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH - Ms. Karen Carson, Deputy Director, Office of Plant and Dairy Foods and Beverages, FDA Methods Used for Risk Assessment of Food Hazards - Mr. Clifford Oliver, Chief, Assessment Branch, Mitigation Directorate, FEMA Hazards U.S. (HAZUS) - Dr. Michael MacCracken, Director, National Assessment Center, U.S. Global Change Research Program, NOAA National Assessment of Global Change Moderator: Colonel (Sel) Mark Welshinger Rapporteur: Mr. Robert Dumont PANELISTS

Two type of risk assessments –Chemical –Microbial Methodology –Identify risk –Gather data Ensure risk managers involved –Construct model –Draw conclusions / recommendations –Send out for public review –Finalize document and develop action plan Day 1 Panel - Key Discussion Results Ms. Karen Carson, FDA

Described Hazard U.S. project –Loss estimation tool –Originally designed for earthquakes –Being expanded for: Flood (Dec 2002) Wind [Hurricane] (Dec 2002 preliminary / 2005 final) Multi-hazard (Dec 2002) Day 1 Panel - Key Discussion Results Mr. Cliff Oliver, Chief Assessment Branch, FEMA

HAZUS Methodology –Input Hazard data Vulnerability Inventory (built data) –Output Damage Loss data Day 1 Panel - Key Discussion Results Mr. Cliff Oliver, Chief Assessment Branch, FEMA

Goal of National Assessment: –Analyze / evaluate what is known about potential consequences of climate variability and change for the Nation… Key findings: –Increased warming –Differing regional impacts –Vulnerable ecosystems –Widespread water concerns –Secure food supply Day 1 Panel - Key Discussion Results Dr. Michael MacCracken, Director, Nat. Assessment Ctr, USGCRP, NOAA

May be “reasonable doubts” about the details…the “balance of evidence” indicates that human activities are altering the climate –Creating a significant risk of future consequences for humans Day 1 Panel - Key Discussion Results Dr. Michael MacCracken, Director, Nat. Assessment Ctr, USGCRP, NOAA

Will take combined intellectual resources and consideration of educational, environmental, business, scientific, and governmental organizations to explore the available options and determine the course to set for the decades ahead Day 1 Panel - Key Discussion Results Dr. Michael MacCracken, Director, Nat. Assessment Ctr, USGCRP, NOAA

Recap of Day 1 Day 1 Panel: Colonel (Sel) Mark Welshinger, OFCM (USAF) 1A: Mr. Michael Buckley, FEMA 1B: Dr. David Cleaves, USFS 1C: Dr. Christopher Adams, CIRA, Colorado State Univ.

Breakout Sessions: Process of Conducting Risk Assessments 1A: Characterize / Quantify Exposure Moderator: Mr. Michael Buckley Rapporteur: Dr. Timothy Cohn

Breakout Session 1A - Key Discussion Results Characterize / Quantify Exposure Language and vocabulary is inconsistent with respect to: –Hazards, e.g. floods versus volcanoes –Discipline –Cultural background –Socio-economic class

Breakout Session 1A - Key Discussion Results Characterize / Quantify Exposure Analog of financial accounting: –Agreement on units –Agreement on definition of terms –Across cultures and socio-economic groups

Breakout Session 1A - Key Discussion Results Characterize / Quantify Exposure Can we develop a consistent standard language for communicating exposures to hazards? –HAZUS as a model?

Recap of Day 1 Day 1 Panel: Colonel (Sel) Mark Welshinger, OFCM (USAF) 1A: Mr. Michael Buckley, FEMA 1B: Dr. David Cleaves, USFS 1C: Dr. Christopher Adams, CIRA, Colorado State Univ.

1B: Predict / Forecast Probability of Occurrence Moderator: Dr. David Cleaves Rapporteur: Dr. Rachelle D. Hollander Breakout Sessions: Process of Conducting Risk Assessments

Foundation issues –Develop organizing framework and terms –Clarify assumptions underlying forecasting mission Applications –Develop user list and model specifications for each user group –Develop guide for “customized” forecasts Breakout Session 1B - Key Discussion Results Predict / Forecast Probability of Occurrence

Technical Quality –Foster research: low probability/high consequence (lp/hc) events comparisons and interactions among hazard processes mitigation effects on lp/hc events Communication –Develop methods for 2-way communication/education about event uncertainties Breakout Session 1B - Key Discussion Results Predict / Forecast Probability of Occurrence

Recap of Day 1 Day 1 Panel: Colonel (Sel) Mark Welshinger, OFCM (USAF) 1A: Mr. Michael Buckley, FEMA 1B: Dr. David Cleaves, USFS 1C: Dr. Christopher Adams, CIRA, Colorado State Univ.

Breakout Sessions: Process of Conducting Risk Assessments 1C: Estimating Losses Moderator: Dr. Christopher Adams Rapporteur: Mr. Floyd Hauth

Define, standardize, collect and make information available –Small steps –Know what is available –Spatial component –Use/leverage current Working Groups Breakout Session 1C - Key Discussion Results Estimating Losses

Compatibility of loss-estimate models –address data sharing problems Incentives for data sharing among federal, state and private sector Tie funding to data sharing Breakout Session 1C - Key Discussion Results Estimating Losses

Other initiatives –Build capabilities for use by local gov’ts –Leverage current programs (PROJECT IMPACT) to gather more data (provide template) –Review current federally-sponsored RA/M research and publicize –Promote data collection as part of mitigation plans required by Stafford Act Breakout Session 1C - Key Discussion Results Estimating Losses