Inflation Report May 2013 Costs and prices

Chart 4.1 Annual CPI and CPIH inflation

Chart 4.2 Direct contribution of energy prices to CPI inflation (a) Sources: Bloomberg, Department of Energy and Climate Change, ONS and Bank calculations. (a)Contributions to annual CPI inflation. Data are non seasonally adjusted. The figures in parentheses show 2013 weights in the CPI basket. (b)Bank staff estimates. Electricity, gas and other fuels estimates are based on recent developments in the sterling gas futures curve shown in Chart 4.4 and estimates of suppliers’ other costs published by Ofgem. Fuels and lubricants estimates use Department of Energy and Climate Change petrol price data for April 2013 and are based on the May 2013 sterling oil futures curve shown in Chart 4.4 thereafter.

Chart 4.3 Bank staff projection for near-term CPI inflation (a) (a)The diamonds show Bank staff’s central projection for CPI inflation in April, May and June. The bands on each side of the diamonds show the root mean squared error of projections for CPI inflation one, two and three months ahead made since 2004.

Chart 4.4 Sterling oil and wholesale gas prices Sources: Bank of England, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters Datastream and Bank calculations. (a)Brent forward prices for delivery in 10–21 days’ time converted into sterling. (b)One-day forward price of UK natural gas. (c)The futures prices shown are averages during the fifteen working days to 6 February 2013 (dotted lines) and 8 May 2013 (dashed lines). The sterling oil futures curve is calculated by assuming that the sterling-dollar exchange rate remains at its average level during those respective fifteen-day periods.

Chart 4.5 US dollar oil and commodity prices Sources: Bloomberg, S&P indices and Thomson Reuters Datastream. (a)Brent forward prices for delivery in 10–21 days’ time. (b)Calculated using S&P US dollar commodity price indices.

Chart 4.6 UK consumer food prices (a) (a)Figures in parentheses are 2013 weights in the CPI food basket. (b)Comprises fish, fruit and vegetables. (c)Comprises all food excluding fish, fruit and vegetables.

Chart 4.7 UK import prices and foreign export prices excluding oil Sources: Bank of England, CEIC, Eurostat, ONS, Thomson Reuters Datastream and Bank calculations. (a)Domestic currency export prices of goods and services of 52 countries weighted according to their shares in UK imports, divided by the average sterling effective exchange rate index over the quarter. The sample does not include any major oil exporters. The observation for 2012 Q4 is an estimate. In 2012 Q4, export prices for Croatia, Pakistan, the Philippines and Turkey are assumed to grow at the same rate as export prices in the rest of the world excluding the euro area and the United States. (b)Domestic currency export prices of goods and services of 52 countries, as defined in footnote (a). (c)Goods and services excluding fuels deflator, excluding the impact of MTIC fraud.

Chart 4.8 Private sector pay and productivity (a) (a)Quarterly measures. (b)Market sector output per worker. The latest observation is 2012 Q4. (c)Diamond is an estimate for 2013 Q1 based on data in the two months to February 2013.

Chart 4.9 Contributions to private sector unit labour costs (a) Sources: ONS and Bank calculations. (a)Contributions do not sum to total due to the method of calculation. (b)Estimated labour costs per worker as defined in footnote (c) divided by market sector output per worker. (c)Calculated using private sector average weekly earnings data adjusted using the ratio of private sector employee compensation to wages and salaries. (d)Quarterly growth in market sector output per worker, inverted.

Chart 4.10 Private sector corporate profit share Sources: ONS and Bank calculations. (a)Recessions are defined as at least two consecutive quarters of falling output (at constant market prices) estimated using the latest data. The recessions are assumed to end once output began to rise. (b)Private sector corporates’ gross trading profits (excluding the alignment adjustment), divided by nominal gross value added at basic prices, excluding general government gross operating surplus and central government and local authority compensation of employees. Central government and local authority compensation data have been seasonally adjusted by Bank staff.

Tables

Table 4.A Private sector earnings (a) Sources: Bank of England, Incomes Data Services, the Labour Research Department, ONS and XpertHR. (a)Based on quarterly data unless otherwise stated. (b)Data in the two months to February. (c)Total pay excluding bonuses and arrears of pay. (d)Percentage points. The bonus contribution does not always equal the difference between total average weekly earnings (AWE) growth and AWE regular pay growth due to rounding. (e)Average over the past twelve months, based on monthly data.

Table 4.B Indicators of one year ahead inflation expectations (a) Sources: Bank of England, Barclays Capital, CBI (all rights reserved), Citigroup, GfK NOP, ONS, YouGov and Bank calculations. (a)Data are non seasonally adjusted. (b)Except for companies, which is an average since 2008 Q2. (c)The household surveys ask about expected changes in prices but do not reference a specific price index, and the measures are based on the median estimated price change. (d)CBI data for the manufacturing, business/consumer services and distribution sectors, weighted together using nominal shares in value added. Companies are asked about the expected percentage price change over the coming twelve months in the markets in which they compete.

Monitoring developments in inflation expectations

Chart A Estimated average changes in instantaneous forward inflation rates derived from swaps in response to CPI news (a) Sources: Bloomberg, ONS and Bank calculations. (a)The average changes are the estimated slope coefficients from regressions of the change in instantaneous forward inflation rates at each horizon on news in the CPI release, on the day on which CPI data were published. News is measured as the difference between the data outturn and the Bloomberg median forecast. (b)The bars show two standard errors either side of the estimated slope coefficients for September 2004 to December 2007.

Chart B Indicators of uncertainty about future inflation Sources: Bloomberg, Citigroup, YouGov and Bank calculations. (a)The interquartile range of responses recorded by the YouGov/Citigroup survey. The survey does not reference a specific price index. (b)Standard deviation of the probability distribution of annual RPI outturns for five years and ten years ahead implied by options. It is not possible to construct a full set of probability distributions for some days due to technical reasons.

Table 1 Indicators of inflation expectations (a) Sources: Bank of England, Barclays Capital, Bloomberg, Citigroup, GfK NOP, ONS, YouGov and Bank calculations. Note: Footnote (f) was incorrectly labelled as ‘Instantaneous RPI inflation three years ahead implied from swaps’ in the printed version of the Report. (a)Data are non seasonally adjusted. (b)Since 2009 Q1 for Bank/NOP data. Since 2008 Q3 for Barclays Basix five years ahead data. Since 2006 Q2 for professional forecasters. Since 2006 Q1 for YouGov/Citigroup data. (c)YouGov/Citigroup data are for April. Financial markets data are the average from 2 April to 8 May. (d)The household surveys ask about expected changes in prices but do not reference a specific price index, and the measures are based on the median estimated price change. (e)Bank’s survey of external forecasters. (f) RPI inflation over the next three years implied from swaps. (g)Five-year, five-year forward RPI inflation implied from swaps.