Ο Ρόλος των Τεχνολογιών Υποστήριξης Συνεργασίας στην Ανάπτυξη Προστατευόμενων Αγορών (niche markets): Η Περίπτωση των Βιοκαυσίμων Γιώργος Παπαχρήστος Α.Μ. 489 Μεταπτυχιακό Μάθημα: «Τεχνολογίες Υποστήριξης Συνεργασίας» Διδάσκων: Νίκος Καρακαπιλίδης Πάτρα, Ιανουάριος 2007 Τμήμα Μηχανολόγων και Αεροναυπηγών Μηχανικών Πανεπιστήμιο Πατρών

Introduction - Biofuels What –Socio Technical Regimes (ST) –Example of Regime Shift –Niche Market  Regime Why –Collaboration Support Technologies –System Dynamics Simulation How –Scenario Planning Example –Understand The Creation, Diffusion αnd utilisation Of Technology Conclusion

Socio Technical Regime A Definition (Rip & Kemp, 1998) Socio Technical regimes are relatively stable configurations of institutions, techniques and artefacts, as well as rules, practices and networks that determine the normal development and use of technology. ST regimes fulfil socially valued functions, which they also help to constitute. Geels (2002) ST systems encompass production, diffusion and use of technology. Geels (2004)

Regime Shift Examples Regimes follow trajectories (Geels, 2002) Agriculture: Increasing Productivity Ship technology: Sails  Coal  Petrol, Nuclear Wooden hulls  Steel hulls Land Transportation: Muscle  Animals  Engines Energy Production: Wood  Coal  Petrol, Nuclear  RET

The basic elements and resources of ST systems Geels, 2004

Social groups which carry and reproduce ST-systems. Geels, 2004

ST Regime Example

Niche Market Protected spaces from market competition Incubation rooms for radical novelties Provide locations for learning processes A framework of intensive interaction between equipment users and producers  social network Experimental or Military projects Eg electric vehicles in EU countries

Diffusion Diffusion is a process which involves the communication of an innovation and its perceived advantages, and results in changes in the structure and function of a social system. It is not a linear process, but rather an interactive process of information exchange and negotiation. Rogers (1995) Niche Market New ST regime

CST - Why Scope For CST –Broad Participation –Communication Among Involved Parties –Establish Common Language –Develop Consensus On Future Developments –Participatory Decision Making –Commitment –Dissemination Of Knowledge, Results

A Framework For Collaborative Design Of Supply Chains (Karacapilidis & Adamides 2007)

System Dynamics - Why Scope For System Dynamics Strategy formation: –Long Term Trends –Capture Interrelationships –Irreducible Uncertainty –Capture Delays –Capture Path Dependence –Change the Mental Models Scenario Planning: Enable “Rapid Prototyping” Of Niche Markets Strategy Implementation (Snabe And Grobler, 2006; Forrester, 1994)

Scenario Planning - How Actors Decisions and Actions Intended and Unintended Effects Controlled Experimentation by Simulation

How Iterative Model Building (Sterman, 2000) Argumentation System Freeze Construction Of Model Simulation Insights From The Model Refinement Of Policies, Actions

Potential Obstacles Subjective World-participants Objective World-simulation Model Interface (Karacapilidis & Adamides, 2007) No previous application

Conclusions Complementary Use Of CST And SD: Providing the Navigational Deck 1.Involve Requisite Actors 2.Construct Conceptual Model 3.Design And Decide On Niche Market 4.Construct And Simulate Model 5.Diffusion Of Results 6.Establish Niche Market 7.Navigate Niche  ST Regime

Questions ?