Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006 The MINNI Project: An Integrated Assessment Modeling System For Policy Making G. Zanini, T. Pignatelli, F. Monforti, G. Vialetto, L. Vitali ENEA, Italian Agency for New Technology, Energy and the Environment G.Brusasca, G.Calori, S.Finardi, P.Radice, C.Silibello ARIANET, Milano

Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment The MINNI Project A 3 year project for the development of a National Integrated Modelling System for Atmospheric Pollution and its effects Carried out under the leadership of ENEA in cooperation with ARIANET and IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna, Austria) Project financed by ENEA and the Italian Ministry for the Environment (total investment 1,268 million Euros) Preface: Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

Two main components: Trasfer Matrices Emission Scenarios AMS-Italy RAINS-Italy The MINNI Project Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

Derived from the RAINS-Europe model developed by IIASA for the UN Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution and used by the EU Commission to develop policies on Air Pollution (CAFE) 20 Administrative Regions 4 Metropolitan Areas, 1 National Sea Traffic Area 14 Large Combustion Plants The MINNI Project The RAINS-Italy Model Pollutants : SO 2, NO x, NH 3, VOC, PM( 10&2,5 ), Ozone Source Areas Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

The RAINS-Italy Model Semplified flow-chart RAINS-Italy Economic Activities Energy Scenario Emission scenarios Cost Curves Deposition and Concentration maps Impact on Environment and Health InputOutput CONTROL STRATEGY Abatement technologies The MINNI Project Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

The RAINS-Italy Model IAM flow-chart The MINNI Project Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

The RAINS-Italy Model The MINNI Project Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006 Example of input data Energy consumption in road transport

The RAINS-Italy Model The MINNI Project Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006 Example of Control Strategy for petrol cars Penetration of the control standards EURO I – EURO IV over years, for petrol cars

The MINNI Project Emission calculation in the RAINS methodology Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006 ( from official IIASA documentation )

Output of the RAINS-Italy Model The MINNI Project NOx Emission Scenario (kt/y), per sector, per year (NEC data 2005) Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

Output of the RAINS-Italy Model The MINNI Project Example of Cost Curve – NOx Cost Curve at 2010 (CAFE 2004) Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

Output of the RAINS-Italy Model The MINNI Project Example of Cost Curve – NOx Cost Curve at 2010 (NEC review test) Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006 The Cost Curve identifies the most cost-effective measures

Output of the RAINS-Italy Model The MINNI Project PM10 concentration map (μg/m 2 ) (inventory data 2000) Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

Output of the RAINS-Italy Model The MINNI Project Nitrogen deposition map (mg/m 2 /y) (test data) Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

Output of the RAINS-Italy Model The MINNI Project Sulphur deposition maps (mg/m 2 /y) – Sectoral / Plant contribution (test data) National Sea TrafficLarge refinery plant Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

The MINNI Project Range of application of RAINS_Italy Applications in the international context - The CAFE Program of the EU Commission - The UN-ECE CLRTAP ( within the TFIAM ) - The revision of the NECD of the EU Commission (2001/81/CE) - The UN-ECE CLRTAP ( ICP Materials ) Italian Sub-Center for Stocks at Risk (Cultural Heritage) - The UN-ECE CLRTAP ( provisions art. 8 and revision of the Gothenburg Protocol ) Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

The MINNI Project Range of application of RAINS_Italy Applications at national/regional level -The Air Quality Directive (96/62/CE) and daughter dirrectives of the EU Commission (plans & programmes referred to art. 8) - Ex-ante, Ex-post assessment of measures at national/regional level - Sectoral emission analysis at regional level (relative contribution from sectors) - Sectoral emission analysis at national level (e.g. pollution from seagoing ships) - Assessment of non-technical measures Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

The MINNI Project Conclusions: The RAINS-Italy Model as integrated assessment model is a valuable support for policy makers The RAINS-Italy Model has natural applications in the frame of EU policy development (TS, CAFE etc.) and UN-CLRTAP The RAINS-Italy Model offers cost benefit analysis as comparison among different reduction strategies The RAINS-Italy Model may provide estimations of the same Health/Environment Indicators used by the EU Commission (e.g. as in theTS, life expectancy reduction and premature deaths) Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March, 2006

The MINNI Project RAINS – Europe on line at IIASA web site: Italian-Polish workshop, Warsaw, 17th of March,