Bkahn - MPR2001 1 MONETARY POLICY REVIEW Brian Kahn March 2001 Brian Kahn March 2001.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Research Department 1 Global Economic Crisis and the Israeli Economy Herzliya conference Dr. Karnit Flug Research Director, Bank of Israel February 2009.

Advertisements

Irelands Economic outlook David Duffy. The Outlook Dependent on world trade growth If forecast recovery materialises then Irish growth will improve in.

1 Regional Economic Outlook Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Masood Ahmed Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department International.

France Economic Outlook by Alain Henriot Delegate Director, Coe-Rexecode Kiel - 16th March 2010.

Russian Economic Report No. 23 Zeljko Bogetic Lead Economist and Coordinator for Economic Policy for Russia, The World Bank November 2, 2010 Moscow Growth.

Weak international public finances and Swedish monetary policy Deputy Governor Karolina Ekholm.

ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC SITUATION CONTENT: 1.GROS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GPD) 2.UNEMPLOYMENT 3.INFLATION 4.INCOME PER CAPITA 5.BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: EXPORTS.

Monetary Policy Update April Lower repo rate necessary to subdue the fall in production and employment and to attain the inflation target of two.

Global outlook: Two-speed recovery in motion Real GDP Growth (percent change from a year earlier) World Emerging economies Advanced economies.

Business Optimism Index Kuwait Q Presented by Dun & Bradstreet South Asia Middle East Ltd (D&B) Muthanna Investment Company (MIC)

Standing Committee on Finance Sector Analysis 02 July 2014 Esther Mohube 1.

Governor Stefan Ingves Introduction on monetary policy Riksdag Committee on Finance 18 September 2012.

Perspectives on key economic issues April 2013 Presentation to the Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Finance by the South African Reserve Bank.

Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Azerbaijan Armenia Georgia Kyrgyz Republic Tajikistan Oil & Gas Exporters Oil & Gas Importers.

Introduction to Macroeconomics

PORTFOLIO AND SELECT COMMITTEES ON FINANCE March 2006.

Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves Introduction on monetary policy Riksdag Committee on Finance 23 February 2012.

Presentation to the Parliament Committee on Finance The South African economy: recent developments and monetary policy Ben Smit BUREAU FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH.

The Macroeconomic Outlook for the Euro Area Ray Barrell (NIESR) March 2005.

Maintaining Growth in an Uncertain World Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa African Department International Monetary Fund November 13, 2012.

Material for assessing monetary policy

PORTFOLIO AND SELECT COMMITTEES ON FINANCE June 2006.

1 Regional Economic Outlook Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Masood Ahmed Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department International.

PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE OF FINANCE March INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY.

Higher food and fuel prices: What is the impact on the Thai economy and what to do about it?

1 Regional Economic Outlook Caucasus and Central Asia Middle East and Central Asia Department International Monetary Fund May 2009.

Monetary Policy Update September Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. The uncertainty.

Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 15 December 2004.

MPU April Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. The uncertainty interval does not take.

QB March 2011 Presentation by the South African Reserve Bank to the Portfolio Committee on Finance Quarterly Bulletin March April 2011.

Brazilian Economic Outlook for 2011 Minister of Finance Guido Mantega 2011 Brazil Summit New York, April 18, 2011.

Monetary Policy Committee Recent Economic Developments M. Heerah-Pampusa Head - Economic Analysis Division 14 July 2014.

PPR 2008: Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bonds Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank.

MPR October Figure 1.1. Repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

MPR 2009 February Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank.

Monetary Policy Update April Lower repo rate necessary to subdue the fall in production and employment and to attain the inflation target of two.

MPR 2008: Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank.

1. Inflation and growth Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden.

South African Reserve Bank Annual Economic Report and Monetary Policy Review Parliamentary Portfolio Committee November 2007.

Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 27 June 2007.

MPR 2008: Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank.

The Global Economic Outlook and Implications for the Region Masood Ahmed Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department Beirut, April 2009.

Ben Smit 6 November 2002 Prospects for the World & SA economies.

PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON FINANCE September INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY.

Inflation Report May Demand Chart 2.1 World trade (a) Sources: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis and OECD. (a) Volume measure.

Governor Stefan Ingves Introduction on monetary policy Riksdag Committee on Finance 3 March 2011.

Material for assessing monetary policy February 2008.

Introduction to the UK Economy. What are the key objectives of macroeconomic policy? Price Stability (CPI Inflation of 2%) Growth of Real GDP (National.

Transformation – results © Libor Žídek. Economic growth in Czechoslovakia , and trend line.

Monetary policy update April The Swedish economy remains strong.

Noncompetitive division charts and policy questions The following pages provide a range of indicators (listed in alphabetical order) that you can use to.

AS Economics PowerPoint Briefings Introduction to Macroeconomics AS Economics.

Monetary Policy in Turbulent Times

A macroeconomic overview

PORTFOLIO AND SELECT COMMITTEES ON FINANCE

Presentation made by the South African Reserve Bank to the Standing Committee on Finance 23 February 2010.

Introduction to Macroeconomics

Presentation to the MPC, August 2004

Introduction to the UK Economy

Introduction to Macroeconomics

Russian Economic Report No. 24

MTBPS and macroeconomic assessment (Nov 2003)

Budget Policy Statement Macro-economic Policy

2005 MTBPS 25 October 2005 Introduction Macroeconomic overview

Robust injection or damp squid?

PORTFOLIO AND SELECT COMMITTEES ON FINANCE

Presentation transcript:

Bkahn - MPR MONETARY POLICY REVIEW Brian Kahn March 2001 Brian Kahn March 2001

Bkahn - MPR MONETARY POLICY REVIEW u Introduction u Recent developments in inflation  the evolution of indicators of inflation  factors affecting inflation u Monetary Policy u The outlook for inflation u Assessment and conclusion

Bkahn - MPR INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION u Inflation targeting u Inflation targeting: The international experience.

Bkahn - MPR Inflation targets & realised inflation rates

Bkahn - MPR Inflation targets & realised inflation rates (continued)

Bkahn - MPR Recent developments in inflation u Evolution of inflation indicators

Bkahn - MPR Consumer price inflation CPIX & CPI

Bkahn - MPR Contributions to CPIX inflation

Bkahn - MPR Production price inflation

Bkahn - MPR The price of Brent crude oil

Bkahn - MPR Brent crude & SA petrol prices

Bkahn - MPR CPIX consumer price inflation & the oil price

Bkahn - MPR Production price inflation

Bkahn - MPR FACTORS AFFECTING INFLATION u External environment

Bkahn - MPR Real GDPInflation rates (estimate) World Advanced economies USA Japan Euro area Developing countries Africa Asia Western Hemisphere Countries in transition Source: IMF World Economic Outlook – October 2000 Real GDPInflation rates (estimate) World Advanced economies USA Japan Euro area Developing countries Africa Asia Western Hemisphere Countries in transition Source: IMF World Economic Outlook – October 2000 Annual percentage change in real GDP and inflation rates

Bkahn - MPR FACTORS AFFECTING INFLATION u Exchange rate developments

Bkahn - MPR US dollar per rand, euro, Australian New Zealand dollar

Bkahn - MPR FACTORS AFFECTING INFLATION u Labour markets

Bkahn - MPR Remuneration per worker, labour productivity & labour costs

Bkahn - MPR FACTORS AFFECTING INFLATION u Demand and output

Bkahn - MPR Real gross domestic product

Bkahn - MPR FACTORS AFFECTING INFLATION u Fiscal policy

Bkahn - MPR FACTORS AFFECTING INFLATION u Monetary conditions

Bkahn - MPR FACTORS AFFECTING INFLATION u Administered prices

Bkahn - MPR Component of consumer price index Administered prices11,1 Public transport 4,0 Petrol and diesel28,4 Communication services 6,2 Electricity 6,0 Paraffin40,3 Licences 8,3 Water 9,1 Education14,8 Medical services 7,2 Medical care goods 9,1 Administered prices excluding petrol and diesel 8,0 Overall consumer prices 7,0 Overall consumer prices excluding administered prices 5,4

Bkahn - MPR MONETARY POLICY

Bkahn - MPR The repo and short-term interest rates

Bkahn - MPR OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION u International context  World growth expected to moderate

Bkahn - MPR IMF Projections Real GDPInflation Oct 2000 Feb 2001 Oct 2000 (Revised) World 4,23,43,8 Advanced economies 3,22,1 USA 3,21,72,6 USA 3,21,72,6 Japan 1,80,5 Japan 1,80,5 Euro area 3,41,7 Euro area 3,41,7 Developing countries 5,75,2 Africa 4,48,6 Africa 4,48,6 Asia 6,63,3 Asia 6,63,3 Western Hemisphere 4,57,0 Western Hemisphere 4,57,0 Countries in transition 4,1 12,5 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2000)

Bkahn - MPR OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION u International context  World growth expected to moderate  World interest rates expected to fall  Oil prices expected to stabilise  No world inflation pressures  Points to relatively begin international environment.

Bkahn - MPR OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION u Domestic outlook  Expect growth to be above that of 2000  Government fiscal policy only mildly expansionary  Private sector consumption expenditure expected to remain steady  Private sector investment expected to rise  Capacity utilisation rates not a cause for concern  No immediate pressure on labour cost increases  Current account is manageable, large deficit not expected  Capital flows uncertain, but flows from Anglo/de Beers and Telkom expected  Exchange rate uncertain, unless hit by some contagion effects of world economy slowdown. Threats to inflation: Stronger than expected international downturn accompanied by sharp rise in domestic expenditure.

Bkahn - MPR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

Bkahn - MPR Headline CPI inflation CPIX inflation Finance6,05,14,96,15,55,1 Business6,36,56,67,98,08,0 Labour6,56,76,37,97,77,7 Average6,36,15,97,37,17,0 Households7, Grand average6, Source: Bureau for Economic Research, University of Stellenbosch BER survey of inflation expectations 1st quarter 2001)

Bkahn - MPR Yield on government bonds

Bkahn - MPR RESERVE BANK INFLATION FORECAST

Bkahn - MPR CPIX forecast

Bkahn - MPR Assessment and conclusion