International Forum of R&D for Eco-innovation Research for combining environmental priorities with economic opportunities Impact of energy scarcity on different industrial sectors involving transport and residential activities and its relevance to climatic change. Alberto Bonilla. Tecnalia-Labein. Unit of Environment 22 October 2009 Katowice, Poland International Forum of R&D for Eco-innovation Research for combining environmental priorities with economic opportunities Thematic Session 1: Research needs to meet the challenges of the EU Climate and Energy Package

International Forum of R&D for Eco-innovation Research for combining environmental priorities with economic opportunities The exhaustion of Fossil Fuels Energy Consumption: Basically fossil fuels (80%) Petrol: 34,4% // Natural Gas: 20,5% // Carbon: 26% ¿Peak oil in 2008? Crude oil extraction in Norway Source: Arto (2009) from Norwegian Petroleum Directorate It is more relevant when the crude oil extraction declines than the crude oil exhaustion moment!

International Forum of R&D for Eco-innovation Research for combining environmental priorities with economic opportunities Carbon Escape. Moving of industries to countries with less strict policies and legislations Increase of the price of the crude oil that will be ‘transferred’ to the whole economy Threats

International Forum of R&D for Eco-innovation Research for combining environmental priorities with economic opportunities The problem of climatic change GHG emissions: 280 ppm pre-industrial age > 379 ppm (2005) 80% increasing from 1970 to 2004 GHGs increase 25%-90% for Need: stabilisation at ppm (2 tons/person·year) at 2050 Actually: USA 20 tons/person·year; EU-25 10,5 tons/person·year China and Brazil have exceeded the threshold Consecuences : Tª increasing 0.13ºC/10 years For the end of 21th Century Tª increases 1,8 - 4ºC (prevention thresholds +2ºC) Some effects 20-30% of vegetal species threatened Increase of agriculture productivity in northern latitudes Reduction till 50% of agriculture productivity in Africa >> Famine Changes in sea level: Estuarine areas of Asia and Africa and small Pacific island threatened Extreme Meteorological phenomena: health affection

International Forum of R&D for Eco-innovation Research for combining environmental priorities with economic opportunities Economic implications of Climatic Change and Energy Scarcity Average Emission Mitigation Cost: For a reduction of GtCO 2 t: $/ton CO 2 For an stabilization in ppm: $/ton CO 2 But It exist important opportunities for the emission mitigation (5-8 GtCO2-eq) at zero or negative cost: Energy efficiency in building, energy efficiency in lightning, vehicles’ engine improvement… ¿Why the market doesn’t take profit of this oportunities? It exist certain hidden barriers that could be broken through the adequate policies

International Forum of R&D for Eco-innovation Research for combining environmental priorities with economic opportunities Some industries can achieve competitiveness in this new framework in a more interdependent and global economy in relation to their productive process (de-localization of raw materials) and trading (consumption patterns) as well as for the use of carbon sinks. Less dynamic industries based in the use of fossil fuels will have to face high inversions to be adapted to new competitiveness concepts. It is necessary the development of models to predict at long term the macroeconomic costs of GHG emissions reduction and their affection to competitiveness at industrial, sectorial regional and country levels. The knowledge of future trends and the analysis of economic exposure levels will allow the participation of the Global European Market for a better industrial, commercial and research policies. Competitiveness

International Forum of R&D for Eco-innovation Research for combining environmental priorities with economic opportunities Gradual transition to a less fossil fuels use economy Management of less energy demands Higher diversification and decentralization of energy supply sources Development of new instruments to promote this transitions ETS: Emissions Trading System CCL: Climate Change Levy Etc. To stimulate inversion in cost-effective low- carbon technologies. To stimulate new enterprises low-carbon based (i.e. ‘carbon trust incubators’) Needs

International Forum of R&D for Eco-innovation Research for combining environmental priorities with economic opportunities Mitigation It don’t exist one only technology for the mitigation in all the sectors. It is necessary a mix of technologies that considers the specific features of the different sectors and countries It exist a wide low cost technologies in building and low- carbon energies It exist certain potential in the agriculture and forestry through the correct land management The cost for technological alternatives for the transport sector are higher than for the above mentioned sectors. In this sector is specially important the demand management. Adaptation Water resource planning Coastal protection Natural disasters risks reduction It is more profitable to include the CC in infrastructures design from the very beginning than a subsequent modification Some conclusions