Internal Migration Research Update Kostas Loukas, Population Statistics Research Unit

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Presentation transcript:

Internal Migration Research Update Kostas Loukas, Population Statistics Research Unit

Aims Brief background on the current method and an update on research being carried out into improving internal migration estimates Case studies to highlight findings from the research into specific changes Next steps Discussion and feedback of the issues being investigated

Importance of Internal Migration For LAD Everytown Population100,000 Births1,290 Deaths870 Movers from elsewhere in UK4,950 Movers to elsewhere in UK4,950 Moves from overseas830 Moves to overseas550

Review of Current Method PR t1PR t2 LA 1 LA 2

Improvement Methods Under Review There are three general themes for improvements we are looking at: Editing address details Better accounting for missed moves Using statistical modelling techniques

Improvement Case Study 1 Actual Move PR Population Estimates 2010 (June) 2011 (June) 2012 (June) John Smith 22 Nottingham John Smith 23 Lambeth John Smith 24 Lambeth John Smith 22 Nottingham Nottingham: 1 Lambeth : 0 John Smith 24 Lambeth John Smith 23 Nottingham Nottingham: 0 Lambeth : 1 Nottingham: -1 Lambeth : 2 Census (March)

Improvement Case Study 1

Actual Move Adjusted PR Population Estimates 2010 (June) 2011 (June) 2012 (June) John Smith 22 Nottingham John Smith 23 Lambeth John Smith 24 Lambeth John Smith 22 Nottingham Nottingham: 1 Lambeth : 0 John Smith 24 Lambeth John Smith 23 Lambeth Nottingham: 0 Lambeth : 1 Nottingham:0 Lambeth : 1 Census (March)

Improvement Case Study 1 Matching PR with 2011 Census and using the Census address where they differ The PR 2011 was adjusted where required with Census address details, with later years of PR data similarly adjusted where the address has still not been updated Comparisons made to highlight numbers of moves between original and adjusted PRs

Improvement Case Study 1 Outflows from adjusted and unadjusted PR for 2012 and 2013 Inflows from adjusted and unadjusted PR for 2012 and 2013

Improvement Case Study 1 Net migration from adjusted and unadjusted PR – 2012 and 2013

Improvement Case Study 2 Current method uses PR or HESA address information based on which source appears to be the most up-to-date Interactions between the data sources can result in the overestimation of LA outflows for students aged This improvement aims to reduce this overestimation by using only HESA based address information

Improvement Case Study 2 – LA Outflows

Improvement Case Study 2 – LA Inflows

Improvement Case Study 2 – LA Net Flows

Improvement Case Study 2 LAs with a high student population such as Leeds, Bristol, Coventry and Sheffield show the same pattern as Manchester after the improvement The improvement had a very small impact in London Boroughs Leads to an improvement in the quality of the estimates along with simplifying the method

Improvement Methods Under Review There are three general themes for improvements we are looking at: Editing address details Better accounting for missed moves Using statistical modelling techniques

Next Steps Future research will assess the feasibility and likely impact of the proposed improved methods Research stage to be completed by Spring 2015 Implement any methodological changes when the mid ‐ 2015 England and Wales local authority based population estimates are published in June 2016 Create revised back series to 2011

Discussion Questions Do you have any thoughts about how the improvements being proposed could impact on your local areas? How does internal migration affects your area and what data do you use to get information on internal migration Any other comments?