The 192 different election campaigns for the Conservative Party that almost spoilt Labour’s party Entry to the JICREG Awards 2005

making media make a difference 2 Overview This is the story of how we persuaded the Conservative Party to increase their spend in local press from 3% in the 2001 General Election to 43% in 2005 It is a well known fact that General Elections are won in marginal seats and determined by a few people ‘the floating voters’ However this is a very difficult strategy to implement: Hundreds of local constituencies to target Often geographically disparate (especially for the Conservatives who have a higher rural vote) Many different messages required to sway voting intentions For this reason political party campaigns tend to spend their money across national newspapers and outdoor: in 2001 the Conservatives and Labour both spent 30% of their budgets at a local level in any local media. In 2005 we found a way of understanding floating voters by constituency and then used JICREG and other mapping systems to construct 192 local media campaigns with locally tailored messages to each of our 192 target seats This increased their spend in local media to 80% in 2005

making media make a difference 3 General Election 2005 Background The UK is split into 646 constituencies In order to gain a majority in Parliament and form the government, a party must win a minimum of 324 seats – giving it a majority of 1 seat The Objective To turn over the Labour Party’s majority of 167 seats from the 2001 General Election To protect the seats currently held by the Conservative Party To increase the number of seats, and share of the vote held by the Conservative Party Seats Total of 659 Seats Party share of vote 2001 General Election Result A huge task!

making media make a difference 4 Our Approach To focus the campaign in 192 of the 646 constituencies (29.7% of the UK) with strong, sustained local activity Fighting the battle where it will be won Identifying 167 seats that would require the lowest swing from Labour or the Liberal Democrats, to the Conservatives Protect 25 seats currently held by the Conservatives that are most vulnerable to other parties – i.e. where the Conservatives hold a slim majority

making media make a difference 5 How our approach was different Producing 192 individual media plans – one for each target constituency with individually tailored creative Traditionally, political parties have predominantly used national media The incumbent agency, recommended the use of a national approach – siting a local approach as too expensive, too complicated, and too time consuming

making media make a difference 6 First Third SeatSwing % We prioritised the 192 constituencies Bottom Third SeatSwing % Second Third SeatSwing % 167 New Target Seats 25 current Majority Increase Source: Electoral commission/MPG profiles

making media make a difference 7 We quantified the potential of local press on a national scale N E Scotland Central Scotland Border N East NW Yorkshire Wales & West Central E. England South SW London N E Scotland Central Scotland Border N East NW Yorkshire Wales & West Central E. England South SW London Key 50%+40-49%30–39%20–29%< 20% Coverage Adults 18+ Regional Press National Press Outside London & South East, Regional Press has much greater penetration than National Press – this is even more defined on a micro-constituency level Source. NRS April 2003-March 2004: National press – Mail, Express, Guardian & Times

making media make a difference 8 We then used JICREG to map all local papers in every 192 constituencies to work out local press’ coverage in area Chester Chester & District Standard Chester Chronicle Chester Mail CHESTER

making media make a difference 9 We then looked at 192 different local press vs national press comparisons: example in Chester Local Press Option in Chester 2 titles used (in constituency readership - JICREG) Chester Mail 40,186 Daily Post (NW)3,230 Total Chester coverage43,416 Equivalent National Press Option In Chester We used JICREG readership data to work out the readership of these titles in the Chester constituency 4 titles used: Daily Telegraph3,074 Daily Express3,989 Daily Mail7,951 The Sun8,161 Total Chester coverage23,175 Local press deliver twice the coverage of an equivalent national press schedule

making media make a difference 10 We then needed to compare the cost of local vs national across each 192 constituencies Local Press Option in Chester 2 titles used (in constituency readership - JICREG) Chester Mail 40,186 Daily Post (NW)3,230 Total Chester coverage43,416 But Daily Post NW also covered the constituencies of: Wirral16,990 Chorley104 Southport1,144 Chester3,230 Total21,468 Therefore Chester represented 15% of the Daily Post total readership Adult CPT for Full Page Mono = £30 Equivalent National Press Option In Chester We used JICREG readership data to work out the readership of these titles in the Chester constituency 4 titles used: Daily Telegraph3,074 Daily Express3,989 Daily Mail7,951 The Sun8,161 Total23,175 With then divided the total cost of this schedule by 192 to get Chester’s proportion of the national press investment Adult CPT in Chester for Full Page Mono = £34 Local press 12% less expensive in Chester than equivalent national press schedule

making media make a difference 11 We then used JICREG to filter all our individual title selections – weighted by priority 1. Coverage by Constituency 2. Overspill into other target constituencies e.g from Chester to the Wirral, Chorley & Southport 4. Advertising to editorial ratio 5. Paid for vs free Source: JICREG

making media make a difference 12 Derby Evening Telegraph Nottingham Eve Post Eastwood & Kimberley Advertiser Ilkeston & Ripley Trader Long Eaton Advertiser Long Eaton Trader Nottingham Recorder Nottingham Topper Sunday Mercury Paid for evening title Circulation in the area is 116 Area Coverage 0.33% Paid for evening title Circulation in the area is 9,962 Area Coverage 30.34% Paid for weekly title Circulation in the area is 2,058 Area Coverage 6.17% Free weekly title Circulation in the area is 11,053 Area Coverage 18.88% Paid for weekly title Circulation in the area is 542 Area Coverage 1.84% Free weekly title Circulation in the area is 25,644 Area Coverage 37.97% Free weekly title Circulation in the area is 30,897 Area Coverage 47.57% Free weekly title Circulation in the area is 29,495 Area Coverage 50.39% Paid for title Circulation in the area is 7 Area Coverage 0.02% Nottingham Showcase Illkeston Savoy Nottingham Savoy Nottingham Screen Room Nottingham Royal Centre Nottingham Broadway Stapleford – 5 x 48 Sheets Beeston – 5 x 48 sheets Nottingham – 5 x 48 sheets We then added all the poster sites and cinema complexes to all our maps

making media make a difference 13 Giving us an example constituency campaign Broxtowe 7 x 48-Sheets & 3 x 6-Sheets 6 x 48-Sheets 8 x 48-Sheets & 3 x 6-Sheets 11 x 48-Sheets & 4 x 6-Sheets 11 x 48-Sheets & 4 x 6-Sheets 12 x 48-Sheets & 6 x 6-Sheets 15 x 48-Sheets & 4 x 6-Sheets F2 Feb F2 MayB2 AprF2 AprB2 MarF2 MarB2 Feb Full Page Mono Full Page Mono Full Page Mono Full Page Mono Full Page Mono Full Page Mono Nottingham Savoy 80 seconds 3 Weeks Outdoor Regional Press Cinema Derby Evening Telegraph Eastwood & Kimberley Advertiser Long Eaton Trader Nottingham & Long Eaton Topper Nottingham Evening Post Nottingham Recorder The same template Different use of outdoor, regional press, and cinema

making media make a difference 14 We understood that voters vote on local and national issues in General Elections and tailored all our copy to the local area

making media make a difference 15 The result was a regional press campaign of unprecedented Scale The scale of this regional press campaign was unprecedented for a political party – who usually use national media Using 270 titles in 6 weekly bursts with 1,324 individual pieces of copy Providing individual copy for every newspaper, using localised statistics on Tax, Crime, Health, and Asylum – relevant to each individual constituency

making media make a difference General Election Result At the 2001 election Labour had 9% lead in the share of the vote: at the 2005 election this was reduced to 2.9% The most accurate opinion poll, NOP, showed a shift from a 12% gap pre- election to 3% at close. Labour’s majority of 167 seats was reduced to 67 seats The Conservatives won 450,000 extra votes, whilst Labour lost 1.2m The swing from Labour to Conservative was 50% higher in our 192 target seats than nationally The supposed resurgence in the Lib Dem vote actually declined in our 192 seats with the Tory’s stealing 5 seats from the Lib Dems

making media make a difference 17