Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 John Rumble Sustainability Team Leader Forward Planning Climate Change in Hertfordshire

Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Global Warming

Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Climate Change Scenarios Regional data on climate change UK Climate Impacts Programme climate change scenarios Describes a range of variables: temperature, precipitation, sea level and climatic variability Low emissions and high emissions scenarios Up to 2100 (three time slices centred on 2020s, 2050s and 2080s)

Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Climate Change is Unavoidable

Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Is Man to Blame? Source: Peter Stott, UKCIP02 Scientific Report

Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 The Kyoto basket Six greenhouse gases & their GWPs

Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Important Sources of GHGs Gas Carbon dioxide CO 2 Methane CH 4 Nitrous oxide N 2 O Important sources in the UK Fossil fuel combustion - transport, energy production, domestic emissions Agriculture, waste disposal, leakage from the gas distribution system, coal mining Agriculture (fertiliser application), biomass burning, coal combustion, and some industrial processes

Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Projected Changes to Annual Average Temperature in UK

Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Projected Changes to Seasonal Average Precipitation in UK WinterSummer

Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 E.g. temperature changes in the East of England Change in average annual temperature Source: UKCIP02 Climate Change Scenarios data

Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 East of England Study

Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Issues for The East of England Lack of water resources Pressure for development Coastal/fluvial/flash flooding Subsidence Higher annual temperatures Reduced soil moisture levels Sea level rise Coastal erosion Extreme events

Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Climate Change in Herts Hotter drier summers; milder wetter winters Extreme high temperatures more frequent Extreme winter precipitation more frequent Significant decrease in soil moisture content Increase in thermal growing season

Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 UK GHG Inventory 1x1km National Datasets –Traffic –Population –EUETS (Pollution Inventory) –Employment –Agriculture –Gas Supply –Electricity Supply Point Sources –(Refineries) –(Power Stations) –(Coke Production) –Industrial/Institutional Combustion –Cement Plant –Other Processes

Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Local Authority Defra/DTI CO 2 Inventory Commissioned by Defra and carried out by Netcen to produce a set of experimental statistics of carbon dioxide emissions for local authority (NUTS4) and Government Office Region (NUTS1) areas for the year 2003 now updated for 2004 Makes use of DTI local gas and electricity consumption data (electricity data are experimental) –DTI’s commitment to “collect and make available data on the pattern of energy use in local areas, to enable local authorities and regional bodies to target activity more effectively” Study provided nationally consistent carbon dioxide emission estimates at local authority and regional level. The data represent the primary emissions from the consumption of fuel or other process activities that emit CO 2 plus the emissions relevant to the production of consumed electricity.

Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 CO2 emissions by Local Authority per capita in 2003 (in kt CO2) Domestic CO2 emissions by Local Authority for 2003 (in kt CO2/km2) Note: Emission intensity (per unit area) rather than total emission

Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March local CO 2 Emissions Basis Emission by Source –Domestic –Transport –Industrial and Commercial Combustion –Agriculture –Industrial Production Processes –Refineries –Power Stations –Coke Production Emissions by Energy End User –Domestic –Transport –Industrial and Commercial Combustion –Agriculture –Industrial Production Processes –Refineries –Power Stations –Coke Production

Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Addressing Everyday use and CO 2 Emissions

Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 We all contribute to Climate Change

Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Nottingham Declaration on Climate Change The Nottingham Declaration is a voluntary pledge to address the issues of climate change. It represents a high- level, broad statement of commitment that any council can make to its own community. Over 200 Councils now signed up The Nottingham Declaration Action Pack was released July 2006

Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 The Two Responses to Climate Change Mitigation of climate change slowing down global warming by reducing greenhouse gas emissions Adaptation to climate change responding to the projected impacts of climate change

Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 MitigationAdaptation CHP Efficient cooling for buildings Hydrogen fuel cells Efficient cooling for transport Insulation Solar energy Flood defences Water efficiency Emissions trading Heatwave plans Stronger foundations Reduction in flying

Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 AdaptationMitigation Description Actions which help us prepare for changes in our climate Actions which help us reduce our greenhouse gas emissions Examples Improving flood defences Designing homes and infrastructure for higher temperatures Improving water efficiency Improving energy efficiency Renewable energies Using private cars less Geography Locally Globally Time scaleShort-long termLong-term (>40 yrs)

Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Using the Nottingham Declaration Action Pack The structure of NDAP supports authority-wide climate action plans, but it is designed for flexibility You can enter at different points in the process, building on any existing work, or picking the ‘low-hanging fruit’ – issues of particular concern for your authority