MLB Prediction Group 25 陳乃群、趙冠琳 2011.06.07 Intro CS - Project presentation.

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Presentation transcript:

MLB Prediction Group 25 陳乃群、趙冠琳 Intro CS - Project presentation

MLB  Major League Baseball

Idea  Predict MLB games by own-made formulas.  Analyze separately on pitchers and batters.

Formula - batters  [(AB-SO)×(TB/AB)+BB+SB}×(H/AB)+HR  Inning ( 局 )  At Bats (AB, 打數 )  StrikeOuts (SO, 三振數 )  Total Bases (TB, 壘打數 )  Base on Balls (BB, 保送數 )  Stolen Base (SB, 盜壘數 )  Hits (H, 安打數 )  Home Runs (HR ，全壘打數 )

Total bases (TB)  A single ( 一壘安打 ) -> TB+1  A double ( 二壘安打 ) -> TB+2

Formula - batters  [(AB-SO)×(TB/AB)+BB+SB}×(H/AB)+HR  Inning ( 局 )  At Bats (AB, 打數 )  StrikeOuts (SO, 三振數 )  Total Bases (TB, 壘打數 )  Base on Balls (BB, 保送數 )  Stolen Base (SB, 盜壘數 )  Hits (H, 安打數 )  Home Runs (HR ，全壘打數 ) ↑ 打擊率 Batting average ↑ Total Bases (after adjustment)

Formula - batters  [(AB-SO)×(TB/AB)+BB+SB}×(H/AB)+HR  The scores that the batters can get in a game

Formula - pitchers Starters 先發投手 Relievers 救援投手 pitchers

Formula – starters  {[(BF-SO)/IP]×[(BB+H)/IP]×BA‘×IP/G}/α+HR/G  total Batters Faced (BF, 面對打者數 )  StrikeOuts (SO, 三振數 )  Innings Pitched (IP, 投球局數 )  Base on Balls (BB, 保送數 )  Games (G, 投球場數 )  BA’ (BA of the opponent, 被打擊率 )  α (own- set scalar for adjustment) ↑ number of batter the possibility that a batter can be on base ↓ ↑ BA of the opponent

Formula – starters  {[(BF-SO)/IP]×[(BB+H)/IP]×BA‘×IP/G}/α+HR/G  The scores that a starting pitcher may lose in a game

Formula - relievers  Starters : scheduled  Discussing each pitcher separately  Relievers : unscheduled  Use the average statistics

Formula – relievers  WHIP×(H/IP)×IP‘/α  Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP)  IP’ (average innings that the relievers may pitch, depending on the starter)  H/IP: the average hits that a pitcher may allow in a inning

Ratio  60% pitcher (starters and relievers)  Ratio of starters and relievers depend on the average innings that a starter can pitch  Starters  66.7% last-3-game  33.3% last-10-game  Relievers  100% Season  40% batter  62.5% last-7-day  37.5% season

Result

Future  Adding more factors  Standings ( 戰績 )  Home/away ( 主客場 )  Fielding ( 守備 )

Goal  60+% success rate

The End  Thank you for listening!