Homeland Security: Emerging Security Needs Casualty Actuaries in Reinsurance Special Interest Seminar: Terrorism September 13, 2004 New York, NY Asha M. George, DrPH Threats Division Manager Homeland Security Institute

2 “The increasing availability of relatively inexpensive cruise missiles and the capability to fabricate and introduce bio- toxins and chemical agents into the US means that rogue nations or transnational actors may be able to threaten our homeland” - Report of the National Defense Panel, 1997

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4 Nuclear vs. Biological Lethality Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, 1993

5 Caught By Surprise World Trade Center Bombing of the Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma World Trade Center/Pentagon Anthrax We may not be able to prevent events from occurring. We can at least keep ourselves from being surprised.

6 PreventDeterPrepareDetectRespondRecoverMitigate Understand the Threat Partner with Others

7 Intelligence Information collected Put together with other information Then all of it is analyzed End product is what we call intelligence In the homeland security context, Info 1 is provided by state and local personnel Analysis [ Collect (Info 1 +Info 2 +…Info X ) ] = Intelligence

8 AWARENESS ATTITUDEBEHAVIOR BELIEF Awareness vs. Belief: Awareness Drops Out

9 Vulnerabilities X Intentions X Capabilities = Threat Threat X Vulnerability X Asset Value = Risk Simple Equations to Characterize

10 Threat Continues to Change The enemy continues to find ways to get through our defenses and exploit our vulnerabilities. Just as disease knows no borders, neither do crime, weather, and any number of other things that produce insecurity and terrorism. Society is continuing to become more connected.

11 The single biggest threat to man’s continued dominance on the planet is the virus.” - Joshua Lederberg, PhD, Nobel laureate Electron micrograph of Ebola virus

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14 Smallpox

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18 What We Should Expect Changes in terrorist tactics, methods and operational activities occur naturally – if only because vulnerabilities, risks, technological abilities, etc., of targets are also changing Lack of wherewithal regarding and interest in conventional operations – if only because they require huge resources and will certainly result in military response and other types of retaliation Unexpected, innovative, non-traditional and broadly applicable methods

19 Characteristics Small-scale high-impact operations As with everything else in society, terrorism drives towards greater efficiency and effectiveness, expending the least amount of resources to achieve the largest results Unequal action taken to rectify societal inequality? Reaction to disproportionate power by using a weapon that wields disproportionate power itself?

20 Top Priority for Terrorism Attack  Fear + Chaos  Civil Unrest  Societal Breakdown How? By: –Undermining the strengths of a target –Exploiting the weaknesses of a target –Maximizing their own advantage –Attaining control –Gaining freedom to take any action they please

21 Effect Multipliers M 1 : Ability to disrupt electronic infrastructure M 2 : Ability to generate fear M 3 : Ability to utilize psychological operations M 4 : Ability to prevent action, response, retaliation, etc. M 5 : Ability to decrease initiative M 6 : Ability to introduce weapons of mass destruction and/or related materials M 7 : Ability to fight in environments that degrade capacity for military response and retaliation M X : Ability to ______

22 Vulnerabilities Infinite array of vulnerabilities for society – Finite array of vulnerabilities for an organization Weakness in defense Weakness in preparedness Highly mobile population Enjoyment of congregation Population density and lack thereof Unprotected agricultural production areas Federal (as opposed to National) intelligence apparatus Lack of specific guidance to individuals Porous borders Inadequate transportation safety Lack of coordinated activities and databases

23 Vulnerabilities (continued) Disorganized infrastructure elements Squishy cyberspace Inability to communicate and work with other countries Science, tools and technology not matched against threats, risks and vulnerabilities Disarray of public health and other infrastructures Inability to address the truly difficult tasks (e.g. Select Agent Program) Holes in existing law Inability or lack of willingness to share information Split and heavily occupied military forces Increasing deficit Etc.

24 Impact of a Terrorist Attack Resources + Unexpected Methods + (Understanding + Exploitation)Vulnerabilities + Effect (M 1 +M 2 +M 3 +M 4 +M 5 +M 6 +M 7 +…M X ) = Impact

25 Identification of Atypical Trends Ongoing observational data Feed into successively broader surveillance and analysis systems Information must be fed back as soon as possible Surveillance needs to be more than routine

26 Basic Model for Trend Research

27 US Homeland Security Advisory System LOW Low Risk of Terrorist Attacks GUARDED General Risk of Terrorist Attacks ELEVATED Significant Risk of Terrorist Attacks HIGH High Risk of Terrorist Attacks SEVERE Severe Risk of Terrorist Attacks

28 View of Homeland Security PUBLIC SAFETY NATIONAL SECURITY HOMELAND SECURITY

29 View of Homeland Defense CONSEQUENCE MANAGEMENT SUPPORT DEFENSE & DETERRENCE HOMELAND DEFENSE

30 International Cooperation National Security Homeland Security Combating Terrorism Combating WMD U.S. INTERNATIONAL AGENDA

31 Space Between stimulus and response, there is space. In that space is power to choose our response. In our response lies our growth and our freedom. - Stephen Covey

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