1 Scripps Inst. of Oceanography University of California at San Diego Oakland, California, October 18, 2013 V. Ramanathan, University of California, San Diego, October 21, ICAMP Inaugural Session

2 Los Angeles Civic Center masked by smog in 1948 SOURCE: Los Angeles Times photographic archive, UCLA Library

3 In 1967, California’s Legislature established the California Air Resources Board (CARB). CARB has worked with the public, the business sector, and local governments to find solutions to California’s air pollution problem. California Environmental Protection Agency Air Resources Board

A New International Study was released this year (Sponsored by WHO): Lin et al, LANCET, 2013 Air Pollution is a Major Killer Ambient particulate matter pollution accounted for 3·1 million (2·7 million to 3·5 million) premature deaths every year

5 Premature mortality due to PM2.5. Dark brown regions experience more than 1000 deaths per 1000 square kilometers.. NASA Earth Observatory, 2013.

SCIENCE INFORMING POLICY Three year, Multi-Institution study University of California at San Diego University of California at Berkeley Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Pacific Northwest National Laboratories LEAD INVESTIGATOR: V. Ramanathan 6 How Has California’s air quality Changed with time?

Black Carbon (BC): Product of Incomplete Combustion The major component of PM from the Diesel Transportation Sector About 75% of PM from Diesel Mobile sources is BC The second largest contributor to global warming Contributes directly to melting of snow packs, glaciers, and sea ice 7 Ramanathan et al, 2013: CARB

Black Carbon Trends in California: Detection Mostly Urban sites Remote sites 8 Ramanathan et al, 2013: CARB

9 Source: Bahadur et al, 2010Ramanathan et al, 2013: CARB Statewide BC Trends in California-Annual Mean (Remote Sites)

40 Years of Progress on Diesel Soot Source: Kirchstetter et al. (2011) 10 Ramanathan et al, 2013: CARB

Air pollution reduced 75-90% despite growth Reproduced from: B. Croes, 2013 (CARB) Carbon Monoxide Nitrogen Oxide Sulfur Dioxide Population Number of Vehicles Vehicle Miles 11 Ozone – Los Angeles peak cut over 70%, hours of exposure reduced 90% PM10 – annual-average levels cut 75% Air toxics – over 80% cancer risk reduction (since 1989)

12 The important lesson to be learned is that cleaning up the air does not necessarily deter development The Co-Benefits are Huge

Co-Benefit of Diesel Black Carbon Reduction To Climate Change Mitigation The reduction in diesel BC emissions from 1989 to 2008, is equivalent to reducing CO 2 emissions by 21 (to 50) million metric tons annually 13 Ramanathan et al, 2013: CARB California’s CO 2 emission (2009 ): 393 MMT/Yr However, simultaneous mitigation of CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels is essential to limit global warming below 2 o C.

14 Reduction in Ozone (smog): Should have reduced crop loss caused by high Ozone concentrations Should have mitigated climate change since Ozone is a powerful greenhouse gas Co-Benefits from Ozone precursor Reduction

15 to examine how California achieved these impressive gains in air pollution without compromising development; Evaluate the nature and magnitude of scientific, technological and organizational infrastructure and policy initiatives that are required for India to make similar progress in the coming decades. Why Are We Assembled Here

16 India’s transportation sector is experiencing impressive growth. The number of vehicles has grown from about 20 million in 1991 to about 140 million in Air pollution has become a major problem. WHO estimates 700,000 deaths each year attributed to air pollution. In cities like Bangalore the transportation sector contributes more than 50% to PM2.5 (as of 2011), nearly the same as in California.

17 What would it take to accomplish similar improvements in air quality of mega cities such as Mumbai, Bangalore, Delhi, Kolkatta and Chennai within the next 30 years, without impeding the economic development of India? November December

Finally, promoting action regionally and internationally that reduces climate change risks and expands clean energy industries and green jobs is a high priority. Climate Action Team Report

19 California’s successful policies for reducing BC based on targeted Science should serve as a Knowledge to Action example for the World If California’s black carbon reduction from diesel can be replicated globally, the projected global warming for the coming decades can be mitigated by about 10 to15 percent*, slow down glacier melt and sea ice retreat in addition to protecting lives and crops. * based on estimates using the Ramanathan and Xu, PNAS, 2010 study My Personal Commentary