Myanmar Changes, Opportunities and Challenges Denis Win Thein 18th April 2012 Wellington

Myanmar Population 58m 85% Buddhist 135 Races and Ethnic groups Area 678,500 square kms (2.5 times of NZ) Largest in mainland SE Asia GDP( PPP ) US$90b Borders with China, India, Laos, Thailand and Bangladesh

What Happened? History was made in the last 12 months

New Constitution 2008

Federal type system President has executive power National Security Council 14 Premiers for States and Divisions 664 Parliament with Upper and Lower Houses Cabinet has 30 Ministers Judiciary Military New Constitution

Leaders of Myanmar Daw Aung San Suu KyiPresident Thein Sein

Buddhism’s role (85% of population) Always been involved in politics Monks - 400, ,000 become for short term each year 45,000 monasteries Learning of scriptures Community needs Social activities 5,000 Meditation Centers 500,000 meditators Supported by community Free food and lodgings

Changes - Are they real?

Stake Holders (internal) NLD USDP Military Monks Peace Groups (ex- rebels) Business people ex-Drug War Lords

Stake Holders (external) China Western Countries ASEAN India Japan (UN)?

It’s the Economy Economy - has be liberalized Private Sector free up to develop 75% of economy 100% Foreign ownership laws drawn up Currency - the Kyat floated as of 2 April 2012 Weak infrastructure is addressed needing $bs Presently cash rich

Myanmar Economy. “It’s a wealthy country but choose to be poor”

Present Status 95% don’t pay any taxes 95% employed by Private Sector Its been an Extractive Economy trying to be a Productive Economy Nothing much of value adding Exported raw material Exported Intelligentsia to neighbors 85% of Economy is INFORMAL?? GDP is officially US$28b but more like US$100b

Whats been done Freed Political prisoners, the media Freed the economy from State control, Export Import is freed up Deregulate many areas - hospitals, roads, schools, Rice production, transport etc. NLD is true opposition party free to move in country Become friends with the Western countries 85% Sanctions lifted Stopped Dam for China Privatized many Government enterprises

Positives No debt - total US$11b Reserves - Government US$7b? Private reserves -US$15b? New Banking system and services - adopt new technologies No mortgages - no loans - learn from other countries Can use expats returning as resource Abundant natural resources People are clever and astute but lack exposure Good media with genuine openness Internet is totally open

Opportunities for the next 10 years Dawei deep sea projectUS$30b to $50bThailand Thilawa Economic ZoneUS$30b to $50bJapan? Yangon RedevelopmentUS$15 to $25bJapan & Local Oil & Gas PipelineUS$2 to $4.5bChina New RailwaysUS$2 to $4.5b??? TelecomsUS$3 to $5b100+ companies Power GenerationUS$30b to $50bChina/Thailand+ others Agriculture SectorUS$15 to $25b????? TourismUS$10 to $15b????? InfrastructureUS$30b to $50bPPP/BOT+ others Utilities, Schools, Hospitals etcUS$10 to $15bGovernment Energy SectorUS$10 to $15bForeign Investors OthersUS$15 to $25b????? TotalUS$200-$300b

Challenges Too fast liberalizing economy - people can’t follow No strategic economic policies or directions Poor infrastructure Foreigners buying up assets and land prices are out of control Skill development is low Internal Capacity, Capability, Competency and Credentials are poor Total lack of International experience Media is out of control Cost of doing business is rising fast

New Zealand’s Opportunities Forestry sector Agriculture/Horticulture Education Tourism IT/Communications Fishing Aviation Dairy Consulting

Some of the strategic initiatives

Energy - Hydro Power, Oil & Gas Existing Offshore Gas Field Hydro Power for India Hydro Power for China Hydro Power for Thailand New Offshore Gas Field

New Infrastructure - Ports, Rail & Highways India - China Highway Fast speed rail link to Yunan Asian Highway from India and Bangladesh to Thailand New Deep Sea Ports Myanmar - Vietnam Highway

Want to do business in Myanmar?

We offer Consultancy & Investment Services Winmin Limited Denis Win Thein 20 years doing business there Relationships with many sectors Ministers Advisors business people Knows how things work

Thank you Q & A