Psychology of Personal Decision-Making

 More TED! – Dan Gilbert ▪ “Synthesizing Happiness”  Cognitive Conflict ▪ Group Work  Rationality  Hope

 Cognitive Conflict = Importance x Uncertainty “Stress”

 Create importance/urgency ▪ Think about risks involved ▪ Imagine what happens if worst occurs? ▪ “Lose” time  Create perceived uncertainty ▪ …by getting creative about alternatives

 “Turn down heat” on importance/urgency ▪ Distancing ▪ Put the problem in a friend’s shoes ▪ Easier to see irrationality in others ▪ Schedule time for coffee/reflection ▪ Time = better decisions  Combat complexity/uncertainty ▪ …with cool tools you haven’t learned yet =( ▪ External Memory ▪ Heuristics ▪ Decomposition  Focus on Process instead of outcomes

 What types of decision problems in other’s lives… ▪ Result in boredom and consequential inaction? ▪ What’s for dinner? ▪ Taxes? “Routine” not routine  Wasing dishes, cleaning  Planning for the future (money)  Stationary ▪ What to do about your examples? ▪ Result in panic/paralysis and consequential inaction? ▪ Where to travel? ▪ Marriage

▪ RATIONALLY Reduce Uncertainty ▪ Factual evidence (OBSERVABLE) ▪ Represent reality in an unbiased way ▪ Photos, recordings, dates of happenings ▪ X -> Y ▪ Accepted or Rejected based on observability

 IRRATIONALLY reduce uncertainty  Accepted or Rejected based on ▪ Self Concept ▪ Lifestyle ▪ Feelings

 At risk of reducing uncertainty by: ▪ Shifting responsibility ▪ The researchers made me do it! ▪ Looking for biased info ▪ Subscribes to Pinto Aficionado Magazine ▪ Join the Pinto Club ▪ Weakening other alternatives ▪ Decry Subaru’s as out of touch with tribal values ▪ Creating excess reasons ▪ “Pintos are close to beans, fruit of the earth, also my tribe” ▪ “I like to drive knowing I could die at any instant, I am truly in god’s hands and feel closer to her” ▪ Seek social support ▪ Find other tribe leaders with Pintos

▪ TEST #1: How do you respond to challenging information? ▪ “No sense in talking about that any more” ▪ “There’s no alternative” ▪ “I find this terribly upsetting” ▪ “We’ve been through that and there’s no use spending more time on it”

▪ TEST #2: Are you willing to put your beliefs to the test?

▪ TEST #3: How do you respond to: “If an independent analysis were completed for my alternatives, would I be willing to commit to and actually follow the recommended course of action?”  If “no”, then hooray, you’ve got Hidden Values to explore!

▪ Unwillingness to admit initial decisions were bad ▪ Sunk costs ▪ Affect our feelings of competence

▪ Set commitment limits in advance ▪ Inform others of maximum commitment level ▪ Discuss with others who have no involvement in alternative ▪ Analyze from a competitors shoes ▪ “The card player up $2000” ▪ Does casino want you to leave?

▪ Rational decisions require: ▪ Cognitive conflict (gasoline) ▪ Hope (steering wheel) Hope Defined here is a little different: “Belief that rational, unbiased approach to decision-making will result in best outcomes”

▪ + Problem solving skills ▪ + Notes and resources ▪ + Knowing how to break problems apart ▪ + Developing good relationships ▪ + Practice/Experience

▪ Work with others ▪ Don’t have to be right on the first try ▪ Don’t have to be exactly right, even in the end ▪ Don’t have to think about everything at once ▪ Can learn from our mistakes ▪ Instead of defending ourselves ▪ …or making rationalizations