System Engineering & Economy Analysis Lecturer Maha Muhaisen College of Applied Engineering& Urban Planning

Lecture (2) Decision making process, include : - Rational Decision making - Decision making for current cost - Examples

Decision making process It is the choosing from alternatives, but is this enough for definition?

Rational Decision Making Rational decision making is a complex process that contain nine essential elements. Although those nine steps are shown sequentially it is common for decision making to repeat the steps. All those steps is required and shown in a logical order.

1- Recognize the problem Recognition of the problem is obvious and immediate Many firms establish programs for total quality management (TQM) or continuous improvement that are designed to identify the problems, so that they can be solved.

2- Define the Goal or objective The goal can be a grand, overall goal of a person or a firm. The presence of multiple goal is often foundation of complex problem. But the objective need not to be a grand but the overall objective may be specific and narrow. “I want to pay a load by may” So defining the objective is the act of exactly describing the task and goal

3- Assemble of relevant data Good decision good information Some data are available immediately at little or no cost, but still other require survey, or consulting with specific knowledgeable people Time horizon is part of data as how long equipment, building will last? Accounting system is of important source of data Financial and cost accounting are designed to show accounting values and the flow of money (cost & benefit) What are the cost that related to specific operation, those indirect (overhead) cost, that usually allocated to operations, those may be satisfactory for cost –accounting purposes, but may be unreliable for economic analysis. To understand the meaningful analysis see the following example :

Example The cost accounting records of a large company show the avg. monthly costs for the three persons printing dep. The wages of the three dep. members and benefits such as vacation, sick leave, make up the first category of the direct labor. The company’s indirect or overhead costs – such heat, electricity, …etc must be distributed to its various departments in some manner, this one uses floor space as basis for its allocations Direct labor cost $6000 Material and supplies consumed $7000 Allocated overhead costs 200m2 of the floor area at $25/m2 $5000 The total $ The printing dep. charges other dep. for its services to cover 18,000$ monthly cost. For example, the charge to run 1000 copies of an announcement is : Direct labor 7.6 $ Material and supplies 9.8 $ Over head 9.05 Cost to other dep.s $

Cont. The shipping dep. checks with a commercial printer which would print 1000 copies for $ although the shipping dep. needs only about 30,000 copies printed a month, its Forman decision to stop printing dep. and have work done by outside printer. The manger has asked to study situation and recommend what should be done. Solution : Printing dep.Outside Printer 1000 copies 30,000 copies 1000 copies30,000 copies Direct cost$ 7.6$ Material and supplies $ 22.95$ overhead Total$ 26.45$ 793.5$ 22.95$ 688.5

The firm will save $ 294 in material and may or may not save $ 228 in direct labor if printing dep. no longer does the shipping dep. work. The max. saving will be = $ 522 But if the shipping dep. Is permitted to obtain its printing from outside, the firm will be 688.5$ a month. The saving from not doing the shipping dep. work in printing de. Would not exceed $ 522 and it is probably would be $ 294 The result would be a net increase in cost to firm. For this reason it is not encouraged to print outside. Data cost gathering present other difficulty. One way to look at financial consequences, cost-benefit, of various alternative : Market consequences : raw material, machinery cost,..etc. Extra market consequences : (shadow prices) as cost of employee injury,…ect. Intangible consequences : numerical analysis probably never fully describe the difference between alternative. As how does one evaluate the potential loss of worker’s job due to automation ? Cont.