Commitment of Emissions for Human Development: an alternative and practical approach to emissions reductions Jiahua Pan Global Change and Economic Development Programme The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing China Developing a Post Kyoto Policy Framework Side Event at UNFCCC SBSTA 18 Environment Rm II; 13:00 – 15:00, June 2003

Emissions demand for what? Necessary for human survival and development n household consumption – Basic needs –Luxurious/wasteful consumption n collective consumption –Infrastructure –Public services

Duality nature of emissions There are three duality implications here: n Transferability –Commodity: tradable –Rights for basic human development: not transferable n Collective vs. household consumption –Collective: infrastructure, public services –Private: basic needs and wasteful/luxurious consumptions n Public good and public bad –Social security and development –Climate change

Proposition one: Basic needs a right for decent living standard but not unlimited C basic  C basic n Achievement of human development potentials is a basic human right that should be respected for n human development is not unlimited: bounded by biological and physical constraints n once development potentials are realised, no need for further increase in emissions but automatic reductions

n Sufficiency rate: around 3200 calories/day/capita LDCs: lower than subsistence China,Brazil: in between, still increasing Overall trend of human development: Basic necessity consumption: nutrition(k/c.d)

y = ce b/x ; b<0; if x , y = c Life expectancy potential: 85yrs (national average), at $20000/c Acceptable life expectancy at 70yrs or higher: >$8000/c Overall trend of human development: quality of life: life expectancy at birth (yrs) and per capita income ($PPP,1990US$) 1998 Rich countries close to the potential, poor countries a long way to fulfillment of HDI potential

Proposition two: luxurious/wasteful consumption: unlimited C lux   n Human nature: a tendency to show superiority over the others: luxurious cars,large houses n Neglect: TV stand-by; excessive heating/cooling n Such consumption is in existence in both developed and developing countries

An overall framework for Commitment emissions Currently in use technologies (CUT) Best available technologies (BAT) Subsistence/survival emissions Emissions path to fulfillment of human development under current in use technologies Dev’ed countries no wasteful consumption Emissions path to fulfillment of human development under best available technologies CUT for BAT potential time

An Agreement on commitment of Emissions for Human Development?  n Ultimate goals of human development: assessment of development needs n Country driven and country specific circumstances based n Exclusion of wasteful/luxurious emissions n UN millennium development goals and WSSD Plan of Implementation n Voluntary and gradual, consistent with FCCC Article 4.1(b)